Hi, as you all know bitcoin is above the 4000 $ line. That is amazing and scary at the same time. As most of the time after bitcoin has a run something is happening.
From following the market intensively the last year I like to draw 3 scenarios:
1: as already happening - all altcoins (all coins from position 10 further down + some like maybe ripple or nem from the top coins) will be reduced in value - maybe 40-50 % down over the next 3-4 weeks. That all goes into bitcoin and bitcoin reaches a market dominance from 65 % + again ... with bitcoin cash together 67 % +
Either the next days or after scenario 1 is at its end
2: people take the money out of bitcoin. They do not invest into altcoin. (At least not within 2 weeks) Total panic on the market. Crash down to 75 Bn market cap. After that those who play the game perfectly reinvest and next game period starts.
3: most of the people that make big gains because of bitcoin take that immediately and try to find the next (short term) valuable altcoin. No real crash but reallocation. However market cap will go down like minus 15 Bn but that doesn't really matter - we have a 'end of june' situation with long existing altcoins that lost half of their value since the July bitcoin fear will return to their old value.
(My preferred scenario) after (3) maybe (4):
4: bitcoin climbs more slowly and drops 3-4 % on some days .... at the same time people find (slowly) trust in altcoins and our crypto finally turn into a healthy market.
What is your prediction boys and girls out there?
....
Ps: also worth a look: litecoin: with high Daily trading volume it stays around $46-48 and is not influenced from the bitcoin run nor from the altcoin losses. In my mind Ltc is the most mature coin the only one that could be used as means of daily payment at the moment... and don't forget it had its 10x gain in value already this year.