While the complete air supremacy Israel & the US have created over Iran and the extensive & systematic demolition of their power projection capabilities may be enough to either force an internal regime change Maduro Style (Trump's current negotiations) or allow the people to rise up and overthrow the regime, what are the other options if these don't work?
A lot of people are doubting whether the Islamist regime in Iran can be overthrown without a ground invasion and note both that this would be politically unviable for the US and is not being prepared for.
https://x.com/johnkonrad/status/2036777848266961293?s=20
Israel, the US's Battle Buddy
But the US has a co-equal battle buddy in this war which happens to have a battle hardened army of over 600,000 troops with the best equipment & training in the world, only 1500km by land from Tehran.
As demonstrated in this war, the Israelis are as good, if not better than the best US forces. Fresh off the total demolition, with world record kill ratios, of terrorist armies far larger & better armed than most NATO countries, it is not just the Israeli Air Force that is vastly superior to its foes.
Israel's combat soldiers are by far the best & most lethal that have ever strode the planet. They have the best equipment, with extraordinary high tech capabilities, the best training, excellent leadership & unparalleled battlefield experience in a wide range of terrains including urban combat and mountains.
IDF Iran Land Invasion Plan
2018 Version of Plan
Almost 6 years ago I proposed a viable plan for Israel to invade Iran & overthrow the Mullahs in Tehran.
@apshamilton/israel-vs-iran-an-opportunity-for-israel-to-remake-the-middle-east
In that post I wrote:
It is no exaggeration to say that there is no military force in the 1500km between the Golan and Tehran than could stop even a single brigade of Trophy equipped Merkava IVs. Yet Israel can field 75+ armoured brigades.
I propose Israel deploy an Armoured Corps (comprised of the following 12 brigades : 5 x Merkava IV with Trophy, 3 x Merkava III, 2 x Namer AFV with Trophy, 1 x Eitan AFV with Trophy, 1 x Achzarit).
This force would advance across a 100km front from the Golan through sparsely populated southern Syria along the Jordanian border connecting with US forces in eastern Syria. The southern flank will be protected by the Jordanian border (and US forces located there) and a brigade of Merkava IIIs along Iraqi border section. The northern flank will be protected by a brigade of Merkava IIIs. Axis of advance and both flanks benefit from open desert terrain with low populations - perfect tank country.
The force would cross the Euphrates into US controlled eastern Syria where it would be able to resupply in friendly territory and set up air bases.
Once established in south eastern Syria the force would then cross the Iraqi border and head towards Erbil & Kirkuk, liberating it from Iraqi government forces and handing it back to the Kurds. Mosul would be cut off and Kurds encouraged to conquer it with Israeli air and artillery support. Israeli air and ground force bases would be established in Iraqi Kurdistan. The Achzarit brigade would remain in Iraqi Kurdistan to secure the withdrawal route.
The force would then progress east with friendly support and re-supply in Iraqi Kurdistan to the Iranian border.
The force would then advance eastwards into Iran via Kurdish and Azeri areas where local populations will support their liberation. The northern flank is secured by supportive local populations, the Azerbaijan border (friendly to Israel) and a brigade of Merkava IIIs.
The remaining 8 Trophy equipped brigades would advance toward Tehran while securing its southern flank, destroying all Iran Republican Guard Corps (IRGC) forces and bases and calling on the Iranian people to revolt against the Mullahs.
Updated Plan
In the last 6 years there have been a large number of developments which vastly improved the viability of this plan.
1) Destruction of Hamas & Hizbollah
Since the Oct 7 attacks Israel has wiped the board clean of the local enemies that have threatened it for decades.
Hamas is utterly defeated, its 30 combat battalions no more, its leadership dead, forced to release its only bargaining chips, the hostages, it has lost half its land and its political leadership is now being expelled from Qatar. It faces complete disarmament either voluntarily or by force.
Hizbollah is a mere shadow of its former 50 combat battalions & 150,000 missiles. Its leadership & officer corp is shattered & broken, its host country has turned against it & the IDF is now expelling its Shiite base from Southern Lebanon, destroying its infrastructure in Beirut and rapidly securing the area south of the Litani River with little opposition.
The IDF's current operation in Lebanon is both necessary to totally eliminate the Hizbollah threat (after the Lebanese government proved incapable of meeting its commitments to disarm Hizbollah) and is an important pre-clearance operation to secure Israel's northern flank for the Iran invasion.
2) Fall of Assad & Demilitarisation of Syria
Israel's demolition of Hizbollah led directly to the fall of the Assad Regime in Syria which allowed Israel to systematically destroy every piece of heavy weaponry in Syria. The Syrian Air Force & Navy were utterly destroyed. Its missile inventory, tanks, artillery, air defences, all bombed to oblivion.
Jolani inherited a Syria with little more than light arms & mortars.
This is very important as it means far smaller forces are needed to secure the northern flank of the invasion route along Syria's southern border.
Indeed, given Jolani's hatred of Hezbollah & its Iranian sponsors & Iran's attacks on Sunni Arab States, it may be possible to agree a free passage for IDF forces through Syria. In any case Jolani has little ability to impede the IDF & would risk his rule if he did so.
3) Improvements in Israel's Order of Battle
Since Oct 7, Israel has substantially increased the size of its combat forces, creating many additional units.
Israel has also been manufacturing a lot more tanks, including the Barak (Mervava V) & upgrading older Mervava's with the Trophy system. It has new mobile artillery, additional Armoured & Eitan AFV Brigades & much more. Its military industries have been operating at 250% capacity (24/6 operation) for 2.5 years churning out the best military equipment in the world and its troops have had 2.5 years of invaluable battlefield experience with very low losses.
I have written previously on how the extremely low attrition experienced by Israel in hard fought battlefields creates vastly superior soldiers.
If you study military history or have ever played a military computer game that models this you will understand that giving units the opportunity to achieve victories with low attrition is the key to creating almost unstoppably powerful units that completely dominate the battlefield.
Pre-Clearance & Preparation for Invasion
Air War as a Pre-Clearance Operation
The immense destruction reigned down upon Iran's military, security & military industrial base from the enormous combined firepower of the USA & Israel for almost 4 weeks can be viewed as either an end in itself, or as "Shock & Awe" on steroids, a preparation for invasion by destroying almost all resistance beforehand.
Authorisation of 450,000 Israeli Reserves
Just this week, the Israeli government set in motion plans to authorise the call up of up to 450,000 troops. While this is not yet finalised, it is vastly more than would be required for Lebanon, where the 3 regular divisions deployed are advancing steadily with little opposition and almost no casualties (2 IDF KIA to date vs over 500 Hizbollah KIA).
US Operations against Iraqi Militias
In parallel with the airstrikes on Iran, the US has been striking Iran aligned militia's in Iraq. This is both to prevent attack on US bases, but also can be considered pre-clearance of potential hostile forces along the invasion route.
US / Israeli strikes on Iranian Army in Kurdish Areas
In addition to the strikes on Iranian Navy, Missile Array, Air Defence, Air Force (including helicopters & transport planes), Security Forces, Nuclear Facilities & military-industrial infrastructure, the US & Israel have conducted extensive strikes on Iranian land forces, particularly in the Kurdish areas where IDF invasion forces would enter Iran under my plan.
Practicalities of Invasion
Large US forces in theatre for logistical support
As part of the current war there are very large US forces in theatre that would be able to provide extensive logistical support for the IDF Invasion Forces. The IDF is not generally structured for long range expeditionary operations, although it did penetrate 200km into Egypt in the 1956 & 1967 wars taking the entire Sinai peninsula, an area greater than Israel, in a matter of days.
With US providing large scale logistical support (fuel, ammunition, food, spares etc) along the invasion route, and the IDF acting as the pointy end of the spear, this ground operation is feasible. Indeed its mostly uncontested or even friendly terrain, especially in Iraqi Kurdistan.
Length of Invasion Route & Historical Precedents
While some may baulk at the length of the invasion route, in WWII Operation Edelweiß the German Army invaded the Caucasus, more than 2500km from the German border with 170,000 men & 1130 tanks. This was against far more serious opposition than IDF forces would face & without the logistical and air power support of the world's hyperpower.
Also in WWII, the British & Soviets invaded Iran with quite limited forces (only 3 division equivalents of British troops) and proceeded rapidly with low casualties. The idea that Iran's partly mountainous terrain is an insurmountable obstacle to invasion is demonstrably false.
Purpose of Invasion
The purpose of the invasion would be to enter Tehran, overthrow the Islamist regime and install a friendly regime and then leave.
It would not be a long term occupation and the people of Iran appear very supportive of the US & Israeli operation to remove the Islamist regime that has been terrorising the population for 47 years.
This is basically a multi-division level raid.
Other Concurrent Operations
This IDF operation backed by US logistics would likely be conducted in concert with a number of other invasions & rebellions all around Iran that would stretch & break any remaining Iranian defences.
- Azeri invasion into Azeri ethnic areas stretching from Azerbaijan border to Tehran suburbs.
- US Marines led with UAE assistance (troops to hold after Marines depart) invasion of the Persian Gulf islands & coastline;
- Kurdish rebellion
- Balochstan rebellion
The Mosiac Defence adopted by Iran isolates regional Iranian Army units and allows each to be defeated in detail without mutual support. Their command & control is totally shot.
It makes life much easier for an invading force.