This is my first time posting on InLEO. I Guess it's no different than the old LEO, but here goes:
Market Watch! I have been now on the sidelines for a lot of my paper digit investments. It's not so easy beating inflation these days and the hedges of old themselves are not exactly keeping up with it. I'm not into the YOLO crowd dealing with #NVIDIA or #GAMESTOP.
I recently sold all of my positions in the commodity sector because it was looking too hot as it had risen 30%-40%. Like crypto, you need to take profits on the way up. I have parked into high interest savings account, but in reality I'm probably losing 15% yearly even with interest rates 'higher'. The truth of the matter is that I believe we are near the end-game. I have always said that when this brick comes to a pass it will more than likely be full wartime. The markets will bottom as if it was COVID once again, and that would be a great time to get the bottoms in the commodity sector.
If this is a gamble, it is probably the strongest hand. I have seen bullish sentiment with peace with #RUSSIA, but I highly doubt this is what will happen. Every time the economy slows down to a halt, and the FED is forced to lower interest rates; you have reached the end-game at least in my opinion. We all want peace in the world, but military activity is usually a tell that the whole world is on the brink of economic disaster.
I know I have posted such things before, and it would seem I would have been wrong after 2008; but that was the money printing stage. Had I had more experience I would have known the stonks would pump and the commodities would trade lower and sideways. So my predictions are not exactly wrong, but the timeline I have always been way ahead of. I wish I could say #gold and #crypto could be those dynamic inflation heads, but in a world controlled by Aladdin and algorithms finding reality is somewhere in between. There is a very important correlation between geopolitical events and speculation in the markets. Simply looking at charts removed any other kind of bias aside from support levels.
My prediction is around October-November that some market shift will occur. I may remain on the sidelines for a few more weeks, and move back into commodities. Just before the fall period I will probably move back out and wait for the US election. There will be a lot of risk off of the table and possibly may be the time to park much of my paper wealth in #GOLD. War may break out in other geopolitical arena's as the market digests what could be civil war material in the good old USA. Commodities are where you want to be when any kind of war unfortunately occurs. This may be a very big shift marking a commodity super cycle. I could be wrong, but that's why I am playing it safe until then.
I welcome any of your comments if you think I am right or wrong!