What’s up everyone,
I’m back again with another MLB fantasy DFS article. I likely won’t be publishing everyday as I have for the past 3 but couldn’t pass up on a good main slate tonight.
These articles are meant to provide you with good well researched content on fantasy sports, in particular DFS. All of the research is my own and will directly go into my own lineups. Too many people just copy and paste random articles on DFS just for views without much research or reasoning. That’s not what these articles are about. Not only am I giving you my favorite plays but I’m also giving you my reasoning and research to help you make your own decisions. If the article is wrong you can rest assured I lost money, so know that I am relying on exactly what I publish. Time and research is the key to winning and thats the backbone of my articles.
For MLB, I am splitting these articles up into pitching and team stacks, as that is how I play. Personally, I mostly play GPP type tournaments so stacking several players from one team is a strategy I never go without. Stacking (choosing several players from 1 lineup) is a great strategy for MLB DFS that I highly suggest you look into our bread my other articles explaining. All pricing will be based off Fanduel’s settings, as this is currently my favorite platform. Stats are derived primarily from FanGraphs with some random exceptions such as ESPN. If you haven’t already, feel free to follow my referral links and sign up for Fanduel and Draftkings:
- https://www.fanduel.com/?invitedby=haleyi14&cnl=mgdb (free $10 signup bonus)
- https://draftkings.com/r/Yinzer724 (25% signup bonus)
Enjoy and please comment with thoughts and suggestions.
Photo courtesy of The Mercury News.
This is article will be focusing on tonight’s 10 game MLB DFS mainslate starting at 7:05pm(eastern). As of this writing, your 3 highest implied team totals are Chicago Cubs (5.8), Boston (5.57), and Milwaukee (4.91). the bottom 3 include San Diego (3.31), Kansas City (3.43), and Miami (3.44). Note some rain and weather risk in Boston.
In my opinion, I really like this slate. Although we can identify some chalk, there are enough teams to help mitigate and spread ownership around along with some great sneaky spots. Confidence rating 8/10.
Pitchers
Tonight’s pitching isn’t as strong as most nights but there are a couple names I am decently confident in going up against some struggling offenses. There a no true “studs” available tonight but a couple guys that have a strong history that I believe we can rely on. Keep in mind I always look at the “split” statistics for each pitcher. That is, I look to break down a pitchers stats vs. left handed bats separately from right handed bats.
Jake Arrieta - $8,800
Arrieta hasn’t been that great this season but has shown some signs of his old self in recent starts. The trend seems to be pointing up for him as he is coming off two straight 7 inning winning performances while only giving up 1 earned run between both games. Strikeouts for Arrieta so far have been odd, as he went from a 10 strikeout game against a team that doesn’t strikeout much (Pittsburgh) to a 1 strikeout game vs. a team that strikeouts a lot (Arizona). We are still focusing on 1 years’ worth of statistics for pitchers (17’-18’) and as it stands, Arrieta has a split wOBA of .337/.261 with a strikeout split rate of 24%/21%. His home run rate on the split is 1.38/.92 while his xFIP stands at 4.17/4.0.
None of these numbers are overly impressive, however it is Arrieta’s recent games and tonight’s matchup with Miami that makes him attractive. Miami vs. right handed pitchers this year has just been plain awful. Specifically, we are looking at a 66 wRC+ (ranked 29th), .263 wBOA (30th), .084 ISO (30th), and 25% strikeout rate (4th worst). Not only are they not hitting the ball for power but Miami is also ranked as one of the worst teams in MLB in terms of strikeouts vs. right handers. If Justin Bour, their lone power left hander, is out of the lineup with injury again tonight, that leaves Miami with almost no offensive threat. I am fairly confident with Arrieta’s recent uptrend in pitching performance and juicy matchup with Miami, that he can deliver a solid outing tonight with some strikeout upside. Although Arrieta is pitching on the road, he is a decent favorite at -142 with Miami sporting a low 3.43 run line. Expect a lengthy outing, quality start, win, and if all goes well decent strikeout game from Arrieta tonight.
Jeff Samardzija - $7,900
The Shark simply hasn’t been good this year and if you want to get technical, wasn’t very good last year either. In any case, Samardzija has been a really solid pitcher throughout his career, who can go deep into outings and offer decent strikeout potential. Although 2018 hasn’t been good, over the last year he has sported a split wOBA of .330/.289 with a strikeout split rate of 25%/22%. His HR/9 sits at 1.60/.95 but most interestingly his xFIP hasn’t really been as bad sitting at 3.91/3.47 (better than Arrieta over the same period).
Again, this is based more on the matchup than the pitcher himself. The Shark faces San Diego tonight at home (pitcher park). San Diego has been a bottom 10 team all season vs. right handers, something I believe continues tonight vs. Samardzija. For the season, San Diego has a 86 wRC+ (ranked 24th), .291 wOBA (27th), .121 ISO (27th), and 28% strikeout rate (worst in MLB) vs. right handers. All of these numbers are super attractive, especially the high strikeout rate. Samardzija is also considerably cheaper than Arrieta and the other high priced pitchers. If we can expect more of the same from San Diego tonight, I don’t see any way the Shark doesn’t capitalize. Vegas also has him as -153 favorite tonight for the win with the Padres only projected at 3.36 runs. Arguably in the best overall matchup on the day when you consider Vegas, the Shark is setting up for the perfect opportunity to get back on track and for this reason he is my other top pick tonight for pitching.
Stacks
I’ve narrowed tonight’s stacks down to just 3 teams although depending on weather concerns in Boston, I may just be focusing on 2 teams. I plan to utilize the below information in my own lineups, stacking the teams listed and fitting other players from teams in good spots randomly.
Tampa Bay
The Rays are in a great spot tonight vs. Jordan Zimmerman in Detroit. Zimmerman hasn’t been a good pitcher for a while now. Running his 2017-2018 numbers show us Zimmerman has a split wOBA of .379/.376 with a very low strikeout rate of 17%/14%. He is also giving up a lot of home runs with a HR/9 rate of 1.69/1.73. Both sides of the plate are hitting him and taking him yard on a consistent basis. You can rest assured any stack vs. Zimmerman should produce. I haven’t played Tampa Bay much of this year, mainly because I didn’t believe they had a good offense. The numbers are starting to show otherwise. Although they don’t offer much in terms of power vs. right handed pitchers (.133 ISO ranked 26th in MLB), they have a very respectable wRC+ of 105 (11th ranked), wOBA of .325 (11th) and are in the bottom half of the league in terms of strikeouts at a 22% rate (18th). I love stacking low strikeout teams vs. low strikeout pitchers. Getting the ball in play is half the battle and we have that exact scenario with the Rays tonight. Couple all of that with the 4.62 team run line and Tampa Bay is in a great spot tonight to capitalize on a very weak Zimmerman. You can play anyone for Tampa tonight but here are some of my favorites.
- Carlos Gomez - $3,100
- Brad Miller - $2,700
- C.J. Cron - $3,600
- Denard Span - $3,300
- Daniel Robertson - $3,300
- Mallex Smith - $3,000
Boston
The Red Sox are in consideration for stacking each and every night as they sport one of the most elite offenses in MLB. Tonight is no exception as they go up against Jason Hammel at home in Fenway. I caution you to pay attention to weather as this game currently has some questionable rain in the forecast. On a side note, sometimes weather concerns can drive down ownerships levels on otherwise chalky stacks if you are willing to live with the risk.
First, the Red Sox are major Vegas favorites tonight having the highest team run line on the slate tonight at 5.56 which should make them chalk. Anything over 5 is fabulous and we have that here tonight. Second, outside of a complete game vs. Detroit (weak offense 2nd time around), Hammel has not been that good this year. He is serviceable at best and for the last year he owns a split wOBA of .322/.316, low strikeout rate of 18%/17%, and a terrible xFIP of 5.13/4.67. He is also giving up a HR/9 rate of .99/1.31. The right hander is in a scary spot tonight against arguably the best offense in baseball. Boston is basically ranked at the top of MLB in almost every major advanced stat vs. right handers. They sport a 129 wRC+ (ranked 1st), .370 wOBA (1st), .203 ISO (3rd), and only strikeout 17.8% of the time (ranked 29th). Under normal weather, the Red Sox should light Hammel up but we do have weather concerns so pay attention. You can almost stack anyone as they are all dangerous hitters but Ramierez has decent BvP. Update: prior to submitting this article Chicago Cubs jump ahead as the top Vegas implied team total. I believe this, coupled with weather concerns will help push down Boston ownership.
- Hanley Ramirez - $4,000
- Andrew Benintendi - $4,000
- J.D. Martinez - $ 4,100
- Xander Bogaerts - $3,700
Toronto
The final stack worth considering is Toronto vs. the right hander Lance Lynn. Lynn has given up 16 earned runs in 18.2 innings so far this year (3 games of 5 ER or more). He hasn’t been good, especially against left handed bats. Over the last year left handed bats have a .359 wOBA against Lynn. Against left handers Lynn has a lowly 15% strikeout rate, gives up 1.89 HR/9, and sports a 5.95 xFIP. Toronto has been middle of the pack vs. right handers this year but one thing they do possess is power. A team 99 wRC+ and .322 wOBA ranked middle of the pack for MLB but what stands out is Toronto’s .203 ISO vs. right handers ranking 3rd in MLB. A pitcher that gives up 1.89 HR/9 to left handers facing a team that ranks 3rd in terms of power vs. right handed pitchers? I think you see the picture and why I like Toronto as a lower owned stack tonight. Focus on their power left handers.
- Justin Smoak - $3,800
- Yangervis Solarte - $3,200
- Curtis Granderson - $3,100
- Russell Martin - $2,200 (value play, good BvP)
Hope this article helps you in setting some lineups tonight. Good luck and let me know ho you do. Let’s win some money!