It is; whether you like it or not. This is not my opinion, this is what TA is telling us.
BTC operates in channels and patterns, I've posted many of these on numerous occasions.
The more long-term the pattern, the more reliable it is as a prediction tool.
So as BTC nears a rather important trendline, I did some very careful TA - as precisely as is practicable - to try to predict the time of capitulation.
That time is now.
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The time to CAPITULATE is NOW!
This is not a bad thing, it's more of a necessary evil. Personally I'd like to get it over with so that the market can recover from this ridiculous and counter-productive bear market. (Which I briefly discussed in this post yesterday.)
The chart below is one I started using about a year ago. As time goes by I have refined it more and more. I want to briefly explain what you see below and how I constructed it, so that - as always - you can make up your own mind as to whether I am on the right track or not.
What I did was to carefully link and measure the BTC All Time Highs (green line). Then I went to the beginning of the large capitulation event of early 2015 and constructed a trendline parallel to the ATH line. As you can see, this trendline also runs perfectly parallel to - in fact through - the general logarithmic growth trend of BTC, thereby enhancing its credence as an accurate and legitimate long-term trendline.
The third (bottom red) line indicates the end of the capitulation event - its lowest level.
So that you can check that they are parallel, I have included the details of the lines I constructed on the chart. As you can see, both are 1471 bars long, have climbed by 1581.31% and are constructed at an angle of 23 degrees. In other words: they are identical.
Zooming into the top area of the chart, where the price of BTC is rapidly approaching the start-of-capitulation trendline, we can see on the chart below just how close that is - we are practically at that level now!
Conclusion
It is highly likely that a capitulation even can and will now occur at any time.
It will probably take only the smallest of catalysts to set it in motion.
Limitations
This is a purely TA based post. Remember Bit Brain's Laws of Crypto, specifically my Fourth Law:
"Technical Analysis is a graphical representation of market psychology. It is a way to visualise the feelings of masses of people wrt trading."
~ Bit Brain, June 2018
and Sixth Law:
TA is a tool, not a rule!
~ Bit Brain, October 2018
In other words, we are limited by the extent to which TA is correct. It is good in the long-term, but it isn't cast in stone!
Another limitation is that I have used prices from the Bitstamp exchange. It's not necessarily the best exchange to use for day to day BTC TA, but it goes back in time further than most, which is why I use it for long-term work.
Finally: crypto is notorious for flaunting the rules. As a young market it lacks well established patterns and trends, making TA particularly tricky. 10 years is a long time in crypto (basically its entire lifetime!), but is still a rather short-term compared to the age of most other asset classes. Crypto continues to break new ground and to forge a new path on a daily basis. Thus any TA, and more importantly, everyone's TA remains just a guess, not based on solid evidence as some like to believe.
NOTE: The 23 degree trendline angle will vary depending on how the chart is constructed and viewed. The angle itself is not important, the import part is that the two lines share the same angle.
Yours in crypto
Bit Brain
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