Hello Lads and Ladies,
We are going to cover here the WHOLE BTCUSD TA, understandable for ANYONE. Starting from the fundamentals, ending with what happened and why things happened that happened. Read it once and you will know and understand everything - loose any panic and have a beautiful day.
Today I have been remembered why I am doing this and why I started posting my TA publicly!!! It is very simple. I am sick and tired of people doing CRAPPY TA and FOOLING people who do not have enough time to do their own TA - spreading FUD and complete NONSENSE.
HERE you see the TA the "top authors" should be doing. I got so angry when I saw so many people calling 4k or 4887.8.. If you look at the YELLOW LINE in the left of the chart. This short line from August to October last year is now the new indicator for the 4k BTCUSD price. How many time after that did it get confirmed? NONE.
So here to this chart and I am going to do step by step so EVERYONE understands it and I will do everything in my power that EVERYBODY is going to see this.
Starting with the bottom blue support line. If you look even more left, this was the very healthy and steady increase of BTCUSD got confirmed many many times so I will never move or delete it again from my BTCUSD chart. Looking at the chart right now, this is a crucial point where we can confirm it again and basically already did.
Now, take a look at the dotted blue line, this was the resistance from waaaay back, which also got confirmed many times ( 25.05/12.06/02.09/13.10/23.10/29.10/13.11/06.02/10.03/23.03/24.04/05.05), check it!! Quiz question.. The next breakout will have a strong deciding point where? AT EXACTLY THIS LINE!!
The next one is the second blue line, above the first blue line. It has been playing a crucial support since September. Confirmed at (02.09/13.10/23.10/13.11/06.02/almost 03.04/ right now). This is a line that we will see in a year as the last possible retracement, since it is also increasing, not as much as the dotted line though.
Now the red lines, the very bottom dotted red line is the super worst case scenario world war 3 breakout support line, AT $3000 NOT $4000!!! If you set the bottom, do it right, not as you wish. The bottom straight red line is the bottom of a channel that we MIGHT come down to, this is the absolute most we will see this pullback happening and I am saying it ONLY as a 5% chance seeing a daily spike drop down there line we saw on February 6th. The red dotted line above was the daily support of the last months but was not very healthy for the chart as we will cover soon. The red straight line above the dotted is constantly turning support and resistance line at $8000, the big pump started here (24.11), afterwards the big scale double bottom happened at $8000 (12.02 - 18.03), getting broken down straight (26.03) and following back up in a straight line to it again (12.04).
The big yellow line from the very top is the ONLY right resistance line that you can use from the very top. Not very top confirmation and then last week.. That is simply wrong. The thin yellow line is its support line during the downtrend, but actually pretty insignificant.
So, what happened to BTCUSD???
We were in such a nice and healthy channel between the bottom blue and the dotted blue line. This is the channel that had a healthy increase and everything was very positive. Then on October 28th we left this channel, said hello to $8000 and came back pretty quick. Since this was the time the news were very positive and people were talking about the BTC Futures, we started a VERY HUGE BULLRUN, all the way to $20.000 this was literally an insanity and the whole market completely overheated. The range between the very top and the dotted blue line was at that time $13.000! Of course a pullback had to happen and all the FUD and shitstorms and all the negativity brought us back to the $5975 within 2 months.
This was a very healthy pullback that had even room until $4500. From there we saw a bounce back up and but the strong downtrend resistance was too heavy and BTCUSD failed to break it TWICE. This disappointment, connected with all of the MT.Gox nonsense brought it back from $11500 to $8000 where (18.03 - 22-03) it had a VERY IMPORTANT decision point, where it had to break through only one point, as the blue dotted line and the yellow resistance lines crossed, but unfortunately we did not have enough volume and positive news for it to happen.
From that point on the chart hugged the resistance and came back to a VERY toxic point - the $6800 line also the red dotted line in the chart. it broke the resistance because the time frame was not fitting anymore and did not retrace enough. Then, it moved sideways for a week trying to decide what to do, since it did not brake the $6800 line, people thought that this was the bottom and started FOMO-ing into it again, pumping it all the way to $8000 and then towards the $10.000 but already since the very beginning this was DOOMED.
You have to come back to support line that is significant and not just take off out of nowhere. It happened anyway because many many people were really ready to see a bull run again, almost desperately. After this short euphoria, we have just tested the very strong and healthy blue line again, beautiful movement and a very healthy retracement. From here on, we have everything fundamental set for the next big scale HEALTHY bullrun, where the blue dotted resistance becomes a support and we see a steady increase.
The news for this are set too and a steady increase of BTC will also bring beautiful times for alt coins with it.
This is the TRUTH behind all of the pullbacks and supports as well resistances. Remember how much trash was out there? Now, you know it better and can check it for your self and also explain it to others. Please don't buy into that nonsense such as price manipulation or some few bucks sold off the MT.Gox .. this has absolutely NOTHING to do with the chart or price, this is ONLY EMOTIONAL. Stay RATIONAL and help others to understand the situation.
I normally don't do it but this time I would really appreciate it, if you shared this analysis and helped me to reach as many people as possible with it. This is very important to understand and helps people to stop being fooled.
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Cheers, Tomas