Bitcoin still continues to be in this weird place for the last month nearly month and a half now. After hitting it's all time highs of $108,000 it's now sunk to the levels we see today of $91,800 a rather large dip when you think about it and a far cry from that $108,000 again.
It begs the question what is going on when bitcoin and crypto should have been in the most bullish season ever. Sure we have just 7 more days until Trump gets into office but even that continues to be down played for the crypto markets.
No executive order likely, no law passed to buy bitcoin and no law yet to not sell crypto as the current administration just gave the green light to sell over 10 billion dollars worth of the asset if not more!
Economic Data
There's a ton of data and for the most part we as humans still need to factor in this data to make investment choices. There will most likely however come a day when an investment AI is created that takes all of these factors into account and invests in certain ways based on past history etc. But if too many people use it it could crush the entire economic system. (But that's for another day)
For now let's take a look at some key economic data we can look at to try and figure out where bitcoin is headed next.
One of those such factors is the ISM manufacturing index. This mainly takes into account the measure of activity of factories around the world and within the USA. This number normally coincides with a rally in crypto as money becomes more abundant creating not only more money to flow into crypto but also a increase in other items which boosts productivity.
These two things over the past 10 years in crypto have accounted for being right on target with each bull run. And you know what? So far that ISM number has not reached the peak it should be at during a bull market.
This puts the speculation for a real rally now pushed all the way back another year until 2026. Now that doesn't mean that during 2025 there won't be rallies but the peak of the cycle should right now put us somewhere around mid 2026 so 16 months from now.
Trust me a lot can happen in those 16 months so for myself I'm grabbing up legit as much as possible everywhere I can as for me this feels like my last main cycle to really make massive change in my life.
Now that's just my personal feelings and not investment advice. Always do your own research before investing and understand the risks.
The Doubt
Now even myself I have doubts about the next moves of crypto and bitcoin. This is mainly because we did see a rather large rally over the last 16 months for bitcoin already. But it's not very possible that we haven't seen the highs and it's possible in the next year and a half we move our way towards $200,000 per bitcoin. I'm going to lock in my prediction right now and put bitcoin at $160,000 come Summer 2025.
What are you thoughts? Do these business cycles and other cycles give us good information as to when to expect things to happen? or are there simply too many other factors at play that make this all unpredictable?