Hello everyone, my name is Dmitry, I live in Russia, and here are my thoughts about blockchain and investment. Excuse me, if some kind of expression will be incomprehensible.
I am constantly asked about how to invest in the Crypto-currency by the steps. What you need to know, what are the pitfalls, how not to lose money, how to be guided by the choice and so on ...
I will begin with this post, which in steps will explain what's what.
Table of contents
We invest, because it grows
Invest in order not to get naked
We invest because
We make a decision
Checking literacy
When something went wrong ...
Define strategy
But I'm still a child!
Getting ready for a long time
Looking for an entry point
About the crowdsdale
About Neblochein investments
We buy cues
We translate the cue ball to ourselves
Life of one transaction
Digital illusion
Where to invest bitcoins?
Decision tree
If I decided myself
If you need help
Still have questions?
Additional reading
But before explaining how to do this, I'd better answer the question, but what the hell in general is it necessary to carry there the hard earned money? I will try to decompose as easily as possible.
We invest, because it grows
Such a thing. Over the past 20 years with the invasion of the Internet, many people have earned an incredible amount of dough on one simple thing - Network_effect. What is this devilry? In the seventies there was one such engineer Robert Melancton Metcalfe. He at full
force invented what we now call - Ethernet
And to make money on this invention, he sold network cards. Then there was still no such thing and the average homospace did not dull the computers should be connected to the network. Even applications for this just yet was not. And Robert realized that all these corporate pimples need to find an irrefutable argument that would prove that his network cards are the panacea for all their diseases. And Robert said:
"The usefulness of the network is proportional to the square of the number of users of this network"
The Law of Metcalfe:
In practice, this means that if one link in the network brings a person 1 conditional unit of benefit, then for a group of 10 people, this benefit is 45 conventional units, 100 people - 4,950 conventional units, and so on, - grows quadratically, and not linearly. That's Robert added a supplement to corporate pimples. And it blew. Like, well, you buy 10 computers without a network card. And their conditional benefits will be 10. And with network cards their conditional benefits will be already 45! And this is 4.5 times more profitable! Afiget, - said corporate acne and began buying up the networked Robert.
And then it turned out that the reason is reasonable enough! It is possible, for example, to use telecom companies to evaluate the companies, which just at that time rolled onto the planet with three times the power. It turned out that indeed, the capitalization of the company's telecom depended on the number of its users. But the dependence was not direct, but quadratic. At the dawn of social networks, venture capitalists quickly remembered the cherished formula and applied it to things like Facebook, Twitter, Skype, etc. And the Law of Metcalfe Led to the fact that millions of local Ethernet grids turned into what we now call the Internet.
The moral is simple - if the number of users of the network is steadily growing, then one should expect the exponential growth of its investments. Thus, Facebook began to cost> 300 billion dollars. The formula is simple. We are looking for a network in conception, which is steadily growing => we put money => we wait => profit! The question is where does Bitcoin? Very simple - this is also a network. And it is growing. It grows quickly. Judge for yourself:
2010 - 10 thousand users
2012 - 100 thousand users
2014 - 1 million users
2016 - 10 million users
Of course, the figures given are very approximate, because there are no ways to determine the number of Bitcoin users accurately. The figures given above are my estimates.
To make them look more convincing here's the statistics for one application Blockchain.info. The attentive reader will notice that the number of users adds to zero approximately every two years.
Q: How long will growth continue and when growth slows down?
Answer: Block technology refers to the technology class No Way Back or No Way Back. This is when homosapiens begin to use something and do not imagine how to live without it. Here's a picture like it was in the case of a box, electricity and generally all kinds of technology:
Adaptation of technologies
Growth will be carried out not according to the exponential curve a S curve until saturation occurs.
The planet now has about 3.5 billion people who use the Internet, and about 20 billion connected devices or simply bots. Given that the Bitcoin network has properties that no state or corporation offers us, we can assume that there is a high probability that most connected people and machines will use this network. What are these properties?
Free opening of accounts. They are simply calculated from your private key :-)
Low fees
Projected and transparent clearing. It is always known in what state is a particular transaction
Transactions can not be rolled back
No one is asking for a passport
No one can write-off directly
No one can block the account
No stupid limits
Suitable for all forms of ownership, not just currencies.
Solid history of all transactions
No taxes
Privacy and anonymity are possible
The list of advantages can be continued, but you understood the idea. Such a manna is heavenly, and not money in comparison with paper dollars and euros. But most importantly:
Programmability Bitcoin
It's just an economic miracle from mathematics, cryptography and computer science.
Investing in blockchain as the best investment opportunity since the beginning of the Internet
Invest in order not to screw up
In existing economic realities, fraud is carried out in three ways:
Disguised theft
This is the part of inflation caused by the printing press.
Printing press
Here 15 years ago one ruble could buy 4 loaves of bread, and today only 1. How does this happen? Vova Putin printed 10% every year (experts suggest that all 20%), as Robin Hood distributed this money to the poor and sick, but he did not forget about himself either. A difficult percentage led to the fact that now the ruble is no longer a cake. And with 100% probability will lead to the fact that in the future this ruble will not even be a tiny one. This creates an excellent occasion for nostalgia, but, for some reason, does not lead the average homosexual to the idea that the easiest way to protect yourself from this theft is to find an alternative. First for savings, and then for daily use.
Banal Feats
It's not enough for the state to steal money from you. In the whole chain of value added, the state withdraws simply an indecent amount of money through taxes - openly. According to my estimates, not less than half. How does this happen? Let's consider a simple case. Here you took your payroll and went to buy 10 loaves of bread for 100 rubles.
You think you paid 13% of taxes. But the employer rolled away another 30% from above. Ie, instead of 1000 you would get something, like, 1400. But this does not end there. You buy 10 loaves of bread for 100 rubles. Let's see, why does a loaf of bread cost 100 rubles more?
10% of it is VAT. The producer of bread rolls added value and should give 10%. The gracious lord took pity and overlaid the loaf at a rate of 10%, since it is assumed that without this bread you will die. If the goods are considered "prince" not of first necessity, then "sovereign" takes 18%. Let's further assume that of 90 rubles the bakery has:
Profit 20 rubles
Spent 30 rubles on raw materials
Pays salaries of 20 rubles
The machines amortizes 20 rubles.
Let's see how much the plant gave a bribe to the "sovereign":
The added value is small. We must give another 20% of the profits to the Tsar. 4 rubles.
From the salary he gives 40%. 8 rubles
On machines still pays annually a property tax. Machines, by the way, could also be cheaper if there were no fees. Anyway. Do not take this into account. Let's pretend that the property tax is 1 ruble in the treasury of the "sovereign".
Suppose that the raw materials bought by the bakery combine could also be cheaper, if not for the fees. In the raw materials that he has acquired already sit all the same fees, except that we have already taken into account the VAT - he is cunning. Suppose that this is 10 rubles.
It turned out 23 rubles. Those. Do you think that all taxes on wages have already been paid? But no - they still miraculously sit in the value of the loaf, which you, homo sapiens, is necessary to earn your salary with which you will pay tribute. And to this, you can safely add 7 rubles to administer the army of accountants, lawyers and personnel officers who feed, because you need to prove all this arithmetic to the "sovereign". Total 30 rubles. Instead of 100 rubles a loaf of bread could cost 70 rubles. As a result, without informal fund-raising, you would have received a salary of 1400 rubles and went to buy 20 loaves. With informal fundraising, you can get only 1000 rubles and buy 10 loaves of bread. Here such arithmetic. It's clear that in schools this is not taught. You can in the childhood sing a bullshit about the holy spirit and homoseguise will see through and he will bring everything himself.
Half
It is such a charge for free cheese in the form of fucking education, medicine, roads, ships and other monopolized state under-services. Arithmetic is very conditional and simplified greatly. But with more accurate calculations, I'm sure - the hair on the head will stand on end even more.
Fucking racket
This is when you do business, and then several policemen come and say - thank you, business is now ours, but you are free. Or NOT free. History knows many examples. Most do not become involved with this, but those who are faced know what is at stake
Or the boom, and the bank was gone. And then they tell you that there is no money, the main thing is to hold on :-)
The point is that any of your abilities at any time can not be yours. The state does not guarantee this in any way. It requires that you keep loot in banks, and property rights in state registers. And a point. Here fuckers also hold, naively believing that there is no alternative.
The problem is that the voiced problems to varying degrees are both in Russia and in America. Those. Problems are actually global and to varying degrees relevant in all existing countries.
Here from all these manipulations, I believe, in the future, blocking technology will become an unshakable mathematical guarantor of the preservation of property and economic freedoms.
Anticipating collapse
There are so many predictions of the collapse of the American financial system. Even billionaires already openly say this. So come on. There is a possibility that this will not happen. But if that happens, then we will not return to the world order that existed before. Such events in retrospect are called The Black Swan.
Nobody thought that the Soviet Union could collapse, that the Second World War would happen, that the Internet would appear. But in retrospect all these events are obvious, and have a rational explanation. Here, with the collapse of the fiat system, the same thing can happen. If the American economy collapses, then the world will literally end up in chaos. Our history in this regard is even more interesting because if the American economy collapses, other economies will collapse more. The mortgage crisis of 2008 clearly demonstrated this. But this is not taught anything to anyone.
Circular security
Circumstance continues. Let me remind you that all real estate, raw materials, stocks, debts and, most importantly, wood products are also estimated in national accounting units: bucks, euros, yuan and so on. It's hard to imagine what will happen if it bombs.
But here's what in this story is amazing. How can this bubble burst if there is no alternative? What will people be paid each day? But for some reason, no one even thinks that the alternative is already there. And it's gorgeous. That as though to us hints that the black swan under the name of the FRS Scheme is not such an unlikely event. In case a negative event has at least some probability, wise financiers recommend hedging the risks, or, if in Russian, then put the eggs in different baskets. Let's guess from three times who we have is all independent?
Independent Bitcoin
Let's return to this in 5-7 years. I will be happy if I make a mistake. But we are Russian people and we know how the states know how to manipulate these manipulations artificially. We have something like this recently.
The moral of this fable is this:
Investing in blockade as a defense against deception by states and central banks
Investing because it's scary
There is another argument in favor of blockchain. They are robots and artificial intelligence. The reality is that we do not know when exactly the time will come when computer algorithms can solve all the problems that we can solve, including. Creative, but we can assume. Here is the picture is old. The last points on it from 2000. But if you refresh it, you will see that the trend is inevitable.
Exponential growth
Now in the yard of 2016. The computing power of the device for $ 1 thousand is approximately equal to the computing power of the mouse. You can be sure of this by observing the robot vacuum cleaner a little. And according to Moore's law, no later than 2025 (or maybe earlier, for example, in 2022), the cost of computing by the biological brain will equal the cost of calculations by our small silicon brothers.
Let me give you some live examples from different areas:
Games for the future in Dubai
Computers for autonomous robotics 21.co
The victory of AlphaGo over Li Sedol
To some it may seem unconvincing. But the pradva is such that on a computer 21 even a schoolboy has the opportunity to create robots that can earn money, and to earn money to buy other robots. Independently. And the algorithm that broke one of the strongest Go players is available on Github and is called Tensor Flow
It can also be taken by any schoolboy and do on it everything that comes to his mind. Such availability of really smart technologies will inevitably lead to the emergence of a new generation of smart devices: autonomous robots that can earn, and, accordingly, make economic decisions. And as soon as the first vivid examples appear, homosexuals can start to get nervous. His work may be in jeopardy. Here's another picture for you. Bots are coming
Those. Bots are already more than us. And there will be even more, and they will become smarter. Thus, the risk of depreciation of your (and my) intellect is real. And the longer you deny it, the faster your brain depreciates. Something like this. The trick is that the block for the economy of robots is something, it's something paper for a person. He is convenient to them, he is clear, he is reliable, he does not need to be trusted, it is easy to integrate with him, etc. Block for the Internet of machines is a new megatrend. Obviously, without blocking the economy of robots is simply impossible. With a blockade - like two fingers on the asphalt. In my opinion, the solution is obvious:
Investing in a blockade as a hedge against the depreciation of one's own intellect
And in addition to the von Neumann architecture, quantum computers are coming. There are rumors that Moore's law will square up for quantum computing.
We make a decision
So, in your head there is a critical mass and there is no urine anymore - you want to buy crypts. The blood is boiling. The brain anticipates incredible profits. All free energy is concentrated on sources of investment. In the furnace are buying new devices, a car, repair. If the accumulation is already there, then it is itching to shove hands in there at once half, or even more. And here I appear such with my recommendations!
Cool down! Turn on the brain!
Blocking is a really cool technology and it is growing fast. But who said that it's you who will make money on this? Let me list the necessary conditions that must be met in order to increase the likelihood of a profitable outcome.
Checking literacy
An indispensable condition for safe investment in the crypt is the availability of basic computer literacy. If it is not, then think three times before throwing your state into an arbitrary set of symbols. Then the question arises, but how do I know if I have this basic computer literacy? These questions will help a little:
You have the same passwords for almost all services.
The length of your passwords is less than 20 characters and is not a copied phrase from the book.
You use antivirus software and you truly believe that it will protect you.
You do not back up your data.
You have no idea what data synchronization is and why you need it.
You do not operate with the concept of trust in a site, program, operating system and hardware.
You can not generate a mini-lecture for at least 10 minutes, when you are asked the question: What really happens when google.com is hammered into the browser, and then press Enter?
If you answered "yes" to at least one question - your computer literacy wants to be better, and you need to consider this when investing in the crypt. There is a high probability that something will go wrong.
Something went wrong..
From my experience I can say that here at least 5% of users have such a simple set of qualities. And without these skills, investing in the crypt is like running to the enemy with an automatic weapon, from which he never shot. Well, or get behind the wheel on the third transport at rush hour, never riding a car before. Those. As it can and will, but the probability is very low.