It is hard to imagine the future of housing, when it is almost opposite of what we see now.
We have come to accept that normal houses are selling for a million dollars in some cities. So, it is difficult to get people to grok that that same house will soon be zero dollars. But they will, and it is important to comprehend this, and why it will happen, so that you can make decisions for your future.
Living in a suburban sprawl, in a single family house, is just bad!
- The standard single family home is a really poor design for multiple individuals or split families. And this looks like the direction society is going.
- The average crackerjack box construction is not good enough to withstand the temperature variations we will be living in, in the future. Even if the house is free, you won't be able to afford to heat/cool the place at future gas prices.
- Few will want to live in the cities/suburbs. With few jobs and very high crime, there will be no one who lives in the city because they want to.
- People learn that living in a city, where you are surrounded by strangers is really bad for you. You really need to be surrounded by friends, which means a group of less than 100 people. Cities are not designed for groups of 100 people.
- People learn that they are not their job. Especially not a highly impersonal job. Life is no longer focussed around, go to work, go home, sleep, repeat. A city is built around the jobs
- These and a hundred other things show us that cities are a bad way to live. Further, many inventions come along that make small communities a very easy thing to build. We will no longer be tied to the grid, or tied to the roads.
James Howard Kunstler has outlined how bad our large cities and suburbs are, and we will find even more reasons…
Demographics leads everything
Houses are only expensive if more people want to live there, then there are houses there. Once there are more houses than people who want to live there, then the price drops. And, not in a little way.
We have had continuous growth in population over our lives. All we have known is growth. We are not prepared for shrinkage. But, that is what is coming.
And when you have houses, that can't be sold, because everyone already has all the house that they want, then you start a race to the bottom. Soon you have many houses sitting empty. Then the price of a house goes to what you could build it for.
When even more houses are empty, the houses become worthless. Not worthless to the people living in it, but having no resale value. If, for some strange reason, you got kicked out of your house, there are a dozen left empty and abandoned that you could move into.
And this is just based on births to deaths ratios. I haven't included anything about unCivil wars, or pandemics, or natural or unNatural disasters… Just the boomers, who own 25% of all houses, leaving the market for "better places" will destroy the housing market. All these other occurrences will just stick a fork in it.
The housing market is done.
The suburban ghost town
There will be entire housing tracts that are devoid of humans. Yes, all those million dollar homes (we aren't talking about the houses of the rich) are going to be left abandoned.
People will not want to live there, even if the houses are free.
Sure, there will be some groups of people that decide to build their small community on the rubble of the suburb. A group taking over an entire apartment complex could work out well, and i do not doubt that some groups will start that way.
But, for the most part, after the new groups start building their small communities in much more advantageous places, all that will be left in these suburbs are people who couldn't get out. People without the resources or skills to get in with a group. Or the complete loners (although they are probably, already, far away from any cities)
The only thing left will be groups of young people going through all the abandoned houses, removing everything of value to aid in the construction of new small communities. They may clean everything to the ground, leaving nothing, or they may leave a bunch of house shells to nature to reclaim
In every way, investing in real estate, is a short lived proposition. Sure it will take years for the empty suburban housing tracts to manifest, but we are firmly on that path.
Unless everyone starts having babies, and jobs start paying a living wage, and the banks stop inflating the currency (and house prices) then real estate is doomed. But that is unlikely since the banksters are pushing everything towards destruction. Not helping, but seriously undermining everything.
People moving out to the country is a serious movement already, and when people start forming groups to move out to the country and start small communities, then we will see all the people that kept the city together, the infrastructure running, all leave. The cities will be gutted of all skilled people. Everyone who has the resources will be gone.
If you bought a house as an "investment" to rent, you will watch its rent that it can attract lower every year going forward. And, basically, you will be giving it back to the bank soon. That is, if there is a bank left. Which is a whole other piece of house prices going to zero.