The mainstream sports media won't say it, but Japan easily produced the biggest upset in the World Cup so far when they defeated Colombia.
Image from CBS Sports
Yes, I'm saying it. It's bigger than Iceland drawing level with Messi's Argentina. More memorable than Switzerland getting a result from Brazil. And yes, even bigger than Mexico defeating World Cup champions Germany.
First, you look at the numbers.
Let's consider the Switzerland and Brazil match-up. Sure, Brazil was expected to win, but according to FIFA rankings, Brazil is number two with 1,431 total points, while Switzerland is ranked sixth with 1,199 points. That's a differential of +19.3%.
Next, we have Iceland with Argentina. The latter is ranked fifth with 1,241 points, while Iceland -- despite its severe underdog status -- is actually a solid team, ranked 22nd with 908 points. Point differential? +36.7%
Then we have the big one: Mexico against Germany. Of course, Germany is ranked number one with 1,558 points. But Mexico is no pushover, ranked 15th with 989 points. That equates to a point differential of +57.5%
A massive upset? No doubt, but it's nothing compared to what Japan did...
While Colombia is ranked at 16th place with 986 points, Japan falls well into a black hole at 61st place, with an alarmingly low 521 points.
The point differential proves it, with a wild chasm of +89.3%. In other words, by FIFA ranking, Colombia is almost twice as better than Japan.
In fact, not only is Japan an underperformer, it's the worst team in Asia next to Saudi Arabia.
And let's be honest...football is not Saudi Arabia's thing.
Second, recent form does nothing to indicate what Japan would eventually do
Japan looked like a train-wreck going into the World Cup.
To be fair, plenty of teams have suffered distractions and challenges prior to major tournaments. However, Japan doesn't have the quality to endure these distractions or poor form.
And poor form is exactly what football fans were witnessing. Leading up to the World Cup, Japan arranged several friendlies. Here are the results:
- Japan 1–1 Mali (ranked 64th, 484 points)
- Japan 1–2 Ukraine (ranked 35th, 733 points)
- Japan 0–2 Ghana (ranked 47th, 624 points)
- Switzerland 2–0 Japan (ranked 6th, 1,199 points)
- Japan 4–2 Paraguay (ranked 32nd, 773 points)
In summary, Japan secured one win, one draw, and dropped three, with an average ranking of 29th.
World Cup killers? Hardly. Japan was at best looking at not getting totally destroyed.
This is to say nothing about the Japan Football Association sacking its head coach in April
Don't even get me started about the JFA's decision. Obviously, good timing has a different meaning with Japanese football execs than with virtually everyone else.
When I heard the news, I felt that Japan were done. This is simply not what you do months ahead of the World Cup.
Especially, not when you're ranked 61st, which makes you one of the worst teams in the quadrennial tournament.
You can understand why I felt that Japan had no chance, yet they pulled off a miracle win.