BTC/USD Update 7/23/18

Weekly

A dawn of a new week emerges and a new weekly candle rears its head. What will this week have in store for us? Well, let's take a look at the past few weeks to see where we are. Bitcoin has seen a downturn from its ATH of about $20k USD, and has left many a bagholder in its wake. There was a spread of Hopium within the community back in April/May where we saw consecutive green weekly candles for the first time since BTC's last major bull run. Price action barely touched $10k USD before dropping back down to $6k USD. Here, Stoch RSI reset back within oversold territory and was ready for another bounce back. We saw an impressive candle two weeks ago which turned even the mainstream media bullish.

As it stands now, we saw a hefty increase in transaction volume last week nearly doubling the previous week. Even today, a monday, we see impressive volume which sets a fair precedent for the week to come. However, we need to be cautious. The price right now is dancing around the median of the BB as well as at the price level of previous local highs. Although this may be area of resistance, both RSI and Stoch RSI may indicate enough room for a breakout to retest the $10k USD level, where it will likely reverse and reset for a third bullish knock.

If this fails, I will be looking at the previous support of $6k USD with a worst case scenario of about $4,650 USD.

Daily

The past several days have spread a bit of hopium through the community with two solid green candles propelling BTC up $1000 USD. This boost also punched through the bottom of the Kumo cloud, a few days after a bullish TK cross immediately before a new higher low. The past few days have even created a bullish Kumo cloud twist to form as well. There are many bullish signs on this timeframe, but we must not lose focus. Both RSI and Stoch RSI are signaling a short term reversal, most likely once the top of the Kumo cloud is touched. I will be looking at the Tenkan (green line) for first support and then the Kijun (red line) for second support. Should both fail us, we must remain within the Kumo cloud for further bullish action.

4-Hour

In the 4-Hour timeframe we see a similar story to the Daily. The short term has been incredibly bullish with above-cloud action for a little more than a week and price action loosely following the Tenkan. However, both RSI and Stoch RSI are getting exhausted as we saw in the daily. Most likely, we will see a reversal for the short term where we hope to see a higher low form. Again, we should look to the Tenkan and Kijun as our first support levels around $7500 USD. If we keep this up, we will be sitting pretty.

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