This Sunday Germans will head to the polls for what looks like a very predictable election. Everything looks set for another win for Angela Merkel and the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU). For almost 12 years we’ve seen Merkel as the Chancellor of Germany which is the executive branch of government in Germany. For a Dane it’s pretty unusual to see a head of government being in office for more than 12 consecutive years, but for a German there’s nothing unusual about it as Helmut Kohl also from the CDU served for 16 years from 82-98!
The news is dominated by the stability provided by Merkel and how Germans wish to continue with her. The German economy is the motor of the European Union and has been the main contributor of the bailouts of Portugal and Greece as examples. Germany on the other hand is among the European countries with the highest percentage of working poor, as we say roses have thorns.
So how do these thorns play out on the political scene? In my view the people working hard on minimum salary have in high numbers turned to the political party Alternative for Germany (AFD) which has been labeled far right wing because of their strict immigration policies. This is after all a well known trend in European politics, but as seen in Sweden nobody wants to play with the right wing parties, and no other party in the German parliament wants to join any coalition with the AFD. Therefore with less than 15 % of the vote (estimated from current polls) AFD won’t have any political influence what so ever, so who will be the main supporter of Merkel’s CDU?
The current government coalition is made up of the major two political parties the CDU (the CDU is made up of CSU which is CDU in Bavaria, a more conservative part of the CDU but general it’s the same party where CDU contest election in the rest of Germany but not in Bavaria, and CSU contest election in Bavaria but not in the rest of Germany) and the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD).
For the CDU/CSU a better coalition partner would probably be the Free Democratic Party (FDP) which is a liberal party on the center right, so closely aligned with CDU/CSU on economic issues. The problem is conservative policies such as family values where FDP supports same sex marriage and CDU/CSU does not. But since this matter has already been settled (same sex marriage is now legal Germany) the 2 parties seem ready for a coalition. The conservative social policies of the CDU/CSU will be expected to clash with FDP but not in a way that would break up a coalition government in my view.
According to polls this coalition of CDU/CSU and FDP will only gather around 45 % so not enough for a majority government. Pundits have been talking a lot about the Jamaica coalition of the above two parties together with the Alliance 90/The Greens (90G). because of the party colors of the three combined would be the same as the Jamaican flag, this is the name it’s been dubbed and this coalition has worked on the state level around in Germany but sometimes it’s been torn apart again and now only remain solid in Schleswig-Holstein! This coalition could work well in many political areas, but the social progressivism of 90G and the conservative values of the CDU/CSU would definitely clash, probably in a way that makes this coalition unlikely as a federal government.
How about the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD)? Couldn’t they be an alternative to Merkel and the CDU? In my view no, the polls suggest there’s no way they are able to gather a coalition of parties with enough seats to reach a majority. So if they want to join the power ranks again, they might form another majority government together with Merkel as Chancellor.
AFD is out, no way anybody would work together with them, and any coalition with the SDP as the party with the Chancellor is unlikely, so what we will see is another Merkel government but who will lend her support is the big question, but the above coalitions are the must likely. Feel free to ask me further question.
One last fun fact, last year I told a Danish journalist I thought it was possible Donald Trump could win the Republican nomination and maybe even the presidency. I was told it was impossible for him to be the Republican nominee, and even if he was he would have 0 % chance of winning the presidency. The journalist was so arrogant like she knew better, and I was just a fool for my predictions. After that time I’ve learned it’s time for me to start writing my own blog since I feel I have some good insights. Second I’ve learned I never want to be arrogant and tell people what can happen and what can’t!
Everything can happen, we learned that from Trump and Brexit! Therefore understand that nothing is impossible, but that the above scenarios are the most likely, and if I should give them a percentage I would say Merkel has a 85 % chance of still being Chancellor after the election! Remember my prediction is still more conservative than journalist who gave Clinton a 100 % chance of being elected president.