2017 was my first year in the crypto world so all of theses "run ups" were a shock to me.
After decades in the commodities market and fund management I thought I would be able to come into the crypto world and put all of that experience and the equations to work here. But I was wrong. But what I was able to take advantage my knowledge of "market psychology" and my ability to predict what a very "young" market will do at any time.
Every market is nothing but a herd, success is knowing when to jump into the crowded herd and jumping out before the herd goes off a cliff. This is all about moving before the herd does. I would say the number one flaw in the "crypto herd" is that there is no acceptance of the correction. Sorry, but every time you get these massive runs to the upside you are going to get a correction. Relax, and accept it.
If you are HODL or holding on for dear life then ignore it and stop stressing over your account balance. If you want to trade it, then do just that. If a position doubles in 24 hours you should feel comfortable taking 50% of your position off the table. Simply re enter your position on the pull back, because there will be one. It's just simple math.
Ok, enough of that. So what are my predictions for 2018?
Bitcoin
I do not see Bitcoin being a long term play, what has recently happened to the fees and minimums for just moving it around are all the proof I need. It may serve as a store of wealth in the future but not as a payment method. That said, I think we see another big run up in Bitcoin Core in 2018. This is one you will always need to be thinking....exit strategy.
Litecoin
My gut feeling is that something big is coming for Charlie Lee and the team at Litecoin. There has been talk of an important social media site and "major" online retailers [no names of course, that would pumping the rumor mill] are in talks to adopt Litecoin as their crypto of choice for payment needs. If and when this happens it will be one of the biggest bull moves seen in cryptocurrencies short history. This makes sense to me when you consider that Charlie comes from their world.
Ethereum
There is no argument that as of today Ethereum is the leader in blockchain technology, just look at the projects built on the Ethereum platform and there is no argument. I see an easy move beyond the $1,000 level when the Casper project is done and implemented. As I write ETH has exploded higher, does somebody know that ghost [Casper the ghost, right?] is right around the corner?
What, no mention of Ripple? No, Ripple is not part of our revolution and I will do nothing to invest in or support their product. This is centralized technology that is designed to keep our non centralized and to some degree private technology from being adopted world wide. Please, do not support Ripple.
My pick for newcomer of the year is Cardano. Charles and the team at Cardano have big things ahead for them. They are taking their time building this 3rd generation crypto currency and will benefit greatly from not having to make big changes after full release of the technology. That said, they have quietly taken the number 5 spot in market cap on livecoinwatch.com , surpassing Litecoin in the process.
My pick for dud of the year is NEO, not much to say about NEO since there is nothing there.
So there you have it, please share your views and flame away!
Ray @ the crudeoiltrader