As far as market movement goes, bitcoin has been very stable, maybe too stable these last few months. Yes, I know last night the price dropped by a few hundred dollars, but for the most part, it’s been moving sideways.
As the charts show, bitcoins price is still consolidating in a triangle pattern visible on the 4-hour time frame after bouncing off the top. We can see that a breakout could be due in either direction, but I’m going to lay out the case for why I think bitcoin is heading to $10,000 before Christmas.
What could contribute to an upward breakout? Can bitcoin beat its resistance level? Will it reach $10,000 by Christmas? Should I have made such a prediction? Will I regret it? To find out let’s take a look.
For full transparency, I do hold bitcoin. Let’s be honest though, if you’re a crypto investor you’ll also hold bitcoin at some point even if it’s just for the trading pairs.
So I’ve made a bold claim. One that will probably, knowing my luck, bite me in the butt. But if John Mcaffee can get away with a few dud predictions, I’m sure I’ll be forgiven. The market has been maturing, however, and research by the Cracow University of Technology found that bitcoin is nearly ready to be considered valid “competition” to Forex markets. After studying the price changes per minute of bitcoin since 2012, the study concluded that bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market looks similar to that of a market maturation curve.
This means that the market is beginning to look like a valid option for established investors and traders. This means that some investors may transfer some of their money into the space as the traditional markets take a downturn. That pump of investment, if it came in soon while bitcoin is currently in the triangle pattern, could cause a bull run. It’s also worth noting that Danny Scott, co-founder of crypto exchange CoinCorner, has said if you look at historical trends, November and December typically have been their busier months.
Other news also indicates a fresh injection of money into bitcoin. When China banned cryptocurrency exchanges, the market felt the pain, but this week a Chinese court ruled that bitcoin was property and that the circulation and the payment of bitcoin in China are not Illegal. This is great news, and while it doesn’t mean that ICO’s and Exchanges are suddenly going to be allowed again, it does open up the future possibility. Bobby Lee, the CEO of BTCC, a hong kong based crypto exchange, has said it would only be a matter of time before China lifts its ban. He said during a CNN interview ‘The more the governments and the regulators tried to put a squeeze on bitcoin, the more we see that bitcoin is actually resilient.’
Even if we don’t get the Chinese market back any time soon, another potential cash injection could be heading in from Africa. While Google search trends for bitcoin haven’t been anywhere near the height of interest seen back in December, there has been a massive uptick in interest from countries such as Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa, and St Helena.
St Helena of all places is a small island over a thousand miles off the coast of South Africa. It didn’t even have internet until 2015 and is home to one of the most dangerous airports in the world. One that only four pilots are qualified to land at. Yet this country is number 4 for bitcoin searches.
All four are African nations. This is in part due to the growing middle class in those particular countries looking for ways to invest their money or to protect it but its also due to Binance opening its first exchange in Africa, Binance Uganda. In the last 90 days, Binance had a 2100% increase in search traffic, and again most of that coming from African nations. Binance Uganda accepts deposits in Ugandan Shillings, bitcoin, and Ether, and offers BTC/UGX and ETH/UGX trading pairs.
When will the Bull run commence?
With the movement of bitcoins price at the moment, It’s very likely that any large spike in volume could trigger the breakout. Of course, this could go one of two ways, but the news would indicate a bull run is incoming. If I had to put a day on it, I would say December the 12th.
Pretty specific, and no, I didn’t look into a crystal ball, but I did read the news. The Intercontinental Exchange’s upcoming cryptocurrency trading platform will officially launch on December 12, pending regulatory approval. ICE will begin offering bitcoin futures contracts in December, as long as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) signs it off, it will be the first cryptocurrency-related offering provided through the new Bakkt platform.
Any of the previous points could be a catalyst. Like a Mentos dropped into a bottle of Cola, it could cause an explosive breakout propelling bitcoins price sky high, or I could be wrong, and we’re left with a fizzle instead of a pop. I guess we’ll have to wait for my Christmas video to find out if I called this one correctly.
With crypto becoming more accessible across the globe, bitcoin and other cryptos will continue to mature as a market. With research indicating that the market is maturing, it just goes to show we turned up to the party early, and the one thing we don’t want to do is head home before the party gets started.
Do you hold bitcoin in your portfolio or use it just for trading? When did you buy in? Were you unfortunate enough to buy in at 20,000 and do you think we’ll see the price reach that level again any time soon? Do you have any predictions of your own? If so let us know in the comments below or start a conversation on our Telegram group.
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Disclaimer: CryptoPig content is written by a team of blockchain passionate people. We are not registered as investment advisors. Don’t take the information in this post as investment advice and make sure you do your own research before investing. Cryptocurrencies are a very risky investment, never invest more money than you can afford to lose.