NOTE: For an update of this STEEM analysis, click on the Tradingview chart image above [720-minute (12-hour) semi-log scale chart used with candlestick wicks removed for wave clarity].
Hi trader friends! Looks like we have more sell offs with this token, if these cycles are correct.
ELLIOTT WAVES & PATTERNS:
The most likely pattern appears to be larger ABC or ABCDE contracting wedge pattern, that should be heading lower now, in line with the cycles shown at the top of the chart.
I’ve used the shorter ABC Elliott Wave corrective pattern for now. However, if STEEM breaks any of the black horizontal breakout lines up or down, or the GANN 1:1 diagonal resistance line up, or the upper or lower blue wedge diagonal trend-lines, then a new trend trust in the direction of the breakout/breakdown is very likely underway.
If a breakout looks imminent, I'll try to do a new post for that potential event or update this post with a new forecast.
THE DOWN KEY:
The dashed horizontal blue line just below yesterday's low must be breached for this down wave pattern to continue as forecasted, else it could be full "Steem" ahead.
CYCLES:
- Blue cycle = general trend momentum thus far.
- Green cycle aligned with the 3 major prior lows.
- Red cycle tends to catch intermediate highs.
- There is definitely longer and smaller cycles than shown, but the data history is too limited to determine the larger cycles at this time.
- Currently, these three cycles are heading down. Thus, the path of less resistance and the highest probability is lower prices until mid August (10-13th), when the green cycle is due to bottom, or late September (26th exact date), around the time the longer-term blue cycle is due to trough.
SHORT ACTION:
Look for short opportunities now, or wait for buy opportunities around the expected cycle low dates in August or September, mentioned above.
TRADER TIPS:
Cycles are about potential energy shifts, not always the direction of a perfect sine-wave. Sometimes cycles invert, called a cycle inversion or flip flop, whereby an originally expected cycle top turns out to be a cycle low. This occurs more with short-term cycles, than longer-term ones. Sometimes cycles are amazingly accurate, but don't use them alone. They yet are another confirmation and planning tool to tilt the odds in a trader’s favor.
Case in point: Years ago when I was a commodity broker, (can’t tell you when, but before I became a CTA), gold and silver had an almost perfect 7-week cycle, low to low. They both went up 4 weeks, then down 3 weeks. This went on for around 9 months. I was able to exit virtually all of my many clients out of the metals market at a 2-3 day double/triple top on the days surrounding the 4-week high. This particular "time & price area" occurred after 5 Waves up in Elliott Wave terms. It was also around the time for a seasonal top for gold, and gold hit a Gann or Andrews line and held.
After selling out everyone that would listen to me, which was 90%+ of my clients, guess what happened? Gold and silver then crashed 30%! How long did the crash take? You guessed it, three weeks! The 3 week cycle low came right on time! After that, the cycles changed and were less consistent, so I moved on to other markets.
THREE MORE CYCLE TIPS:
- Gold has a very consistent cycle of 8 to 8.6 years, top to top.
- Commodities tend to have more consistent cycle highs than lows.
- Many digital assets (cryptos) trade more like commodities and currencies than stocks, but have been far more volatility . Still, tops often seem more consistent than lows for many tokens, but not with all tokens.
DISCLOSURE:
This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk!
Cheers and good trading,
Michael Mansfield CIO
05/17/18 at 9:00 PM EST
Let me know what you think.
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