This is a comprehensive updated version of an article I wrote for Scorum 5 months ago, since then quiet a lot has happened with the younger generation of players, unfortunately that doesn't include any of these players winning a Grand Slam and the big 3 are still dominating in all the Grand Slams...
Did you know there has yet to be a player born in the 1990's onward that has won a Grand Slam title in the men's tennis world? That is quiet an extraordinary observation given many of those players will be between 24 to 29 years old and yet there has not been a single player talented enough to win one of the 4 major events held each year. Such is the dominance of the old guard.
Djokovic and Federer were both only 21 when they won their first Grand Slam, Nadal just 18 years old and Del Potro who is the last young player to win a slam all the way back in 2009 was 20 at the US Open. In fact we have to give Del Potro credit, had he not had so many injuries he will have likely won atleast another by now. For 10 whole years there has been a major lack of young talent coming through good enough to take on the big time players. Some will put it down to the skill of the current big 3, but I would look towards whats going wrong with the young players of this generation. They just don't seem to have that flair, tenacity and all around devastating game to win slams. If you look at the big 3, they all have one formidable quality all the other players do not have.
Federer's top quality is his all around game, where back and forecourt are just as easy to play for him, there's not one shot or position he is weak at. No other player has the ability to cover the whole court as comfortably and with as much panache as the Swiss.
Nadal's top quality is his forehand, it kicks up so high when it bounces deep on the court causing all sorts of problems for his opposition and the angles he is able to generate with his top spin are out of this world. He has the best forehand in the game. I prefer it to Federer's because it's more consistent, it's a weapon but it also produces less unforced errors.
Djokovic's top quality is his backhand, no one has a backhand more consistent and accurate than his. Added to this is his amazing flexibility when defending at the baseline.
Of course all these three also do many other things better than the rest of the pack, with the exception of the serve where some of the big guys dominate.
I will mention Del Potro (born in 1988) who has a forehand more powerful than anyone else in the game. If he loads on his forehand, no one can defend against it (except possibly Murray back in the day).
Finally there is Andy Murray (now currently out of singles tennis), Stan Wawrinka and Marin Cilic. Murray won his first Major at 25 and went on to win another 2 Grand Slams. Wawrinka who also has 3 Grand Slams, won his first at the age of 29 and Cilic has one won at the age of 25. None of these four additional players come close to Federer, Djokovic and Nadal but atleast they also won grand slams all the while defeating one or more of the big three along the way in their prime.
The key question is one of the new generation win a grand slam while proving they are capable of beating one or more of the big three along the way in their prime? Right now I can't see this happening unless one or more of those big three retire.
Dominic Thiem was the last young player to make it to a Slam final, he was 24 then. In fact since then he has also made it to a second French Open final, which is a pretty impressive achievement by today's standard of player of young players. He is 25 now so hardly very young compared to the examples of the big 3. No other player in their youth or mid 20's has come close.
The most successful young player on tour, Alexander Zverev with 11 titles to his name has only reached the Quarter Finals of a slam so far. He is still only 22 years old so he has potential but by this years consistency, he isn't looking very convincing and has a long way to go. Tsitsipas who was destroyed by Nadal at the Australian Open semi final has shown flashes of brilliance, but when you consider that Nadal hit him off court with ease and then he himself was dominated by Djokovic in the final in Melbourne, seems to show the young Greek has a long way to go.
The state of the men's next generation of tennis players is pretty poor if I am honest when concerning Grand Slams compared to past history. If we think of the big 3 plus Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka, they all have unique qualities that are exciting to watch and are all capable of magic while on court. Collectively they have won 58 Grand Slams and produced some memorable finals between them. Now consider the young players, with the exception of Tsitsipas who played some inspired tennis in a manner that entertained the crowd in Melbourne to defeat Federer this year, which young player has really excited you in the men's game?
If we turn our attention to the women's game at least Japan's Naomi Osaka at the age of 21 has provided a fresh face and excitement there. She picked up her second Grand Slam last week in the space of 6 months. She is a real threat to every established female player, all of which have far more experience than her at the highest level of the game. She is now the World Number 2 WTA player at such a young age and was number 1 this year too, how refreshing to see!
If only the Men's game had such a player coming through to really add a level of unpredictability at the men's major tournaments. While we await our first rookie winner of a slam since 10 years prior, I will take a look at and evaluate the players born in the 1990s onwards who I believe are in contention to potentially break the grip of the big 3.
4. Daniil Medvedev
Watch Medvedev draws applause from Federer for impossible volley winner
I like watching Medvedev play, it amazes me how long he can last in rallies given he is 6ft 6 inches tall and looks like a sloth with a stick in his hand. Some fans consider him a boring style of player - like a "pusher", someone who just hits the ball back and never really goes for a shot. Last year he won his first 3 ATP titles including a 500 event in Tokyo. This year he's been relatively quiet only winning one low key event in Sofia so far.
For me Medvedev needs to pick up his aggression at times. His defensive qualities for a tall player are admirable but they won't win him the big trophies because he is simply too tall and cannot outlast the likes of Nadal and Djokovic. Instead he needs a better game plan as he faces the tougher players - he needs to go big on his forehand and be more aggressive.
By all means he should try to retain his mobility, he will still need it on return of serve but he shouldn't try to out play defensive players who are far superior than him at outlasting others, especially in best of 5 set matches.
We saw how exhausted he looked at the Australian Open after he tried to out rally Djokovic, in the third set he was a spent force and capitulated. Going for more with his forehand is one of the key areas he needs to focus on, that can be a real weapon and he shouldn't hold back on it and choose to look for unforced errors instead.
His favourite surface is grass so he was understandably disappointed to go out to David Goffin over five sets in Round 32 at Wimbledon. Honestly I can't see Medvedev winning Wimbledon, unless he radically changes how he plays the game at 6ft 6inches. I can't see him getting anywhere close to winning the US Open this year either so that will be a full year where he crashes out of Grand Slams early on.
3. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Highlights of Tsitsipas' Win Over Nadal This Year in Madrid
You can find numerous articles under my Scorum account since 2018 about the young Greek hero, the first Greek tennis player to ever win an ATP title. He's only 20 so he still has time to develop and possibly win a Grand Slam when he is younger but I would like to see him win one against the best still pretty much at their best. Waiting for the likes of Djokovic and Nadal to grow older and possibly be injured at a slam will not bold well for history in terms of people considering someone like Tsitsipas a true great. The same goes for Zverev (though Zverev has beaten both Djokovic and Federer now on several occassions just not in a slam).
Big Shoes to Fill...
If you have looked at the greats of the past and present, they all have naturally succeeded their predecessors by defeating them early in their careers to claim a slam. Think of how Federer at the age of 19 defeated the current number one Pete Sampras in the Quarter Finals of Wimbledon. Or Nadal who at the age of 18 at the Miami Masters took Federer to five sets and was two points from a straight sets victory before that. At 19 he would go on to defeat Federer at the French Open when the Swiss was the number one seed. Then there's Djokovic, who at the age of 20 at the Rogers Cup, defeated the world number 3 - Andy Roddick in the Quarters, the world number 2 Rafa Nadal in the Semi's and the world number 1 Roger Federer in the final - what an achievement for such a young player! All three of them were 21 or under when they won their first Grand Slam.
I could go back further in history to the likes of Andre Agassi and Pete Sampras. Agassi reached a world number 3 ranking at the age of 17, age 19 he reached the semi finals of the French and US. Samprass made the Wimbledon, US Open final and Australian Open Semis at the age of 21. At 22 he gained the world Number one ranking and won the Wimbledon title beating the former world number one Jim Courier in the final before going on to claim the US Open title.
All the above clearly demonstrated the Men's tennis game is steeped in history of young rookies coming up quickly and stamping their authority on the game. Tsitsipas has a lot to do if he wants to have any chance of being the next young player to do so early in his career. He will need to quickly adapt his game to take down the likes of Nadal and Djokovic.
I do believe he has an outside chance of doing so, but this year I would like to see him claim a 500 title or even a masters. Right now he's one two very low key titles in Portugal and France against weaker opposition so he still has work to do going into the hard court season. Losing three times in a row to Nadal was not a great start to his career but on the fourth time of asking he dominated the Spaniard in Madrid this year. It is just a shame he couldn't back that win up with a similar performance vs Djokovic in the final - that would have been an excellent first masters to secure. Earlier this year he couldn't get over the line vs Federer in the Dubai 500 so it's clear we can see Tsitsipas is still going through growing pains so early on. Maybe this year won't be the year we see him truly shine but next year could be where we see the young Greek really take on the old guard.
I have Tsitsipas at number three in my list only from prior results but I still wouldn't be surprised if he was the first young player to win a Slam ahead of Thiem and Zverev.
2. Dominic Thiem (25 years old) (Austria)
Watch Thiem beat Nadal in straight sets earlier this year at the Barcelona 500
Thiem has now made two Slam finals at Roland Garros in two years, but unfortunately on both occassions he has faced Nadal at his best. Atleast this year he managed to take a set off Nadal to make the score respectable where as last he was completely destroyed.
He may not have had the hottest year of the younger players overall but making another slam final is a big positive. He is the only player below 30 to get to a Grand Slam final at Roland Garros, that's an achievement that far outweighs the odd ATP 250 event title and arguably even a 500 or Masters title win. Thiem has put himself in the position to win a Grand Slam twice, he may have gone down in flames vs Nadal in 2018, but can take some positives with his performance in 2019, atleast he had chances and on a different day, who knows? He has beaten Nadal before on clay including prior to the French this year in an ATP 500.
I like Thiem, he's a power player who has a great one handed backhand so I am a bit perplexed as to why he hasn't had more success on hard courts. Last year that changed somewhat when he picked up his second hard court trophy in St Petersburg. He now has 14 titles to his name with a terric win this year at the Barcelona 500 where he beat Nadal in straight sets in the Semi's before comfortably disposing of Daniil Medvedev in the final. The Austrian is considered the more mature of the young players. Given he's made the final of two slams now, he will be favoured as the most likely younger player to succeed again on clay next year. But can he go one better at the French Open itself after two failed attempts? It's still a lot to ask, given that we can expect both Djokovic and Nadal to be in attendance next year.
Thiem's biggest chance will be at the French but don't discount him all together at the final event of this year, the US Open, he had a great run last year and nearly defeated Nadal in the Quarterfinals over 5 sets.
1. Alexander Zverev (Most Likely)
Zverev won the ATP Tour final in London for the first time defeating Djokovic in straight sets.
Zverev is not actually my favoured Grand Slam winner amongst the young players but statistically speaking he is still the most likely to succeed given his 11 ATP titles already won at the age of 22. He has three masters titles to his name (the only other young player to win a masters is Karen Khachanov) and an ATP final trophy where he beat both Federer and Djokovic at the end of 2018. Some will say neither the World Number 1 or 3 had their best performances, but he still beat both in a single tournament.
So far this year Zverev has failed to show up to the races, he's been losing against a whole host of poor players he was dispatching with ease in previous years and his only title thus far is a small Swiss 250 on clay. At this point last year he had already secured a Masters 1000 and a more respectable 250. But he still has the whole hard court season yet to play so there is still time to recapture his previous form.
Zverev shows experience and a cool head beyond his age and although he has looked volatile over the first half of 2019 against some average players, it's most likely part of the growth pains as he looks to solidify his position within he top 5 players in the world - he's loosely hanging on to the World Number 5 position right now. Zverev at the age of 22 has achieved way more than any other next generation player (Thiem is slightly out of that bracket now) so I am sure he will be pretty disappointed he went out of the Australian Open to Milos Raonic in straight sets - that would have hurt. Making the Quarter Final at the French was a good result, though he couldn't take a single set off Djokovic. He will be looking forward to the the hard court season starting up as grass is never a place he looks at home, so tournaments such as the Washington 500 (that he won last year) plus the Toronto and Cincinnati Masters will be places he will be looking to really go deep in. Defending his Washington title will be his main priority ahead of the US Open.
Zverev has no weaknesses from the back of the court technically and a strong serve. He does seem to still lack the focus to see out certain matches and his level of play can drop, we saw that in Melbourne where he limped over the finish line against an average French player - Jeremy Chardy before losing to Raonic two rounds later in straight sets. He should look towards improving his net game this year too if he wishes to have a chance vs Nadal where he has lost all 5 of their meetings. That will potentially be his biggest stumbling block to becoming the first player born in the 1990's onwards to win a Slam. Impressively versus Federer he is square on wins 3-3 and 3-4 vs Djokovic.
The other big question mark for me hanging over the young German's head is, is he ready to make the stride from best of 3 to best of 5 set tournaments just yet? Having 11 trophies at the age of 22 is an excellent record in regular ATP events, a brilliant start to his career but can he convert that form to Grand Slams? Thus far the nearest he has got is a quarter final appearance in both the 2018 and 2019 French Opens, he failed to back that up with any meaningful progress at Wimbledon or the US Open last year and this. Let's wait for the French!