Is there a formula to measure the expected value a blogger will bring to Steem?
When we are talking about companies we know that there is a very useful formula. This formula allows us to calculate the expected total return of any stock. The formula steps are outlined below:
- Find the initial cost of the investment.
- Find the total amount of dividends or interest paid during the investment period.
- Find the closing sales price of the investment.
- Add sum of dividends and or interest to the closing price.
- Dividend this number by the initial investment cost and subtract 1.
Just by following these steps is the rational way for determining the expected return for any stock.
When trying to determine the expected value of a blogger we have to recognize this is different than trying to determine the expected value of an account. This is also not easy to determine because you have to know a lot about what the blogger can bring to the platform and the ways the blogger might add value to the platform in the future which is maybe impossible to predict accurately. So we cannot ever know for sure what any particular blogger will be worth to Steem but perhaps we can look at what the blogger has done in the past in terms of content provided.
First we would have to determine which set of metrics to track. Which metric best tracks the value a blogger is providing to Steem? Some could say it is upvotes but these upvotes by bots or by whales may allow some to say that upvotes do not accurately measure the value a blogger brings to Steem. This means upvote metrics are inadequate. What about the amount of new participants a particular blogger can bring to Steem? This would be much more accurate but without a referral program set up we do not have a way to track this metric as far as I know. It is also possible that bloggers can bring a lot of new people to Steem but still post topics which are disliked by whales.
Let's search for the metric which tracks the amount of value a participant brings to Steem
I do not have this metric. The purpose of this post was to propose the question of whether or not it is possible to determine using math how much expected value a blogger can bring. Facebook has determined that each user of their site is worth as much as $200. Steem bloggers may have more or less value to Steem depending on what topics they blog about, how much specialized knowledge they have, who they know, how attractive they are physically or by charisma, what talents they have, and much much more. Because it's not easy to determine intangible value and this is often intangible, this is a difficult question.
People who have backgrouns in math should feel free to comment. If you think there can be a metric to determine an expected value for an average blogger on Steem as a baseline then let me know. This baseline could be used to determine how much more some bloggers earn beyond this average. Then we can rely on more advanced metrics to determine if these bloggers add as much value to be worth what they earn. This is also useful to bloggers because bloggers could learn which topics, activities, are adding the most value to the Steem platform, and can adjust in a way so as to add more value and earn greater rewards.
In other words, if value is subjectively measured then which metric supports the consensus of that subjective measurement if not upvotes? Most importantly how do we use predictive analytics to create expectations?