How many active users do you think there will be at the end of 2018 ? I have been wondering lately how the growth looks for the active daily users on Steemit so I decided to find out and based on it make a prediction for the end of 2018. I will share with you my prediction in this post.
In order to make a future prediction we must first look at the patterns of the past. But before I get there I want to mention two major things which I think will impact the growth of Steemit to increase much much faster. The first being that the sign up process has become much quicker, and it will be even faster in the future from what I understand. This is extremely important I think, because a lot of people that sign up are uncertain to begin with so if the process ends up taking too long they might end up not following through. I think that has happened a lot, I actually know so from friends that tried to join earlier but gave up. Pity pity.
The second fundamental reason why I think numbers will increase much faster is that the overall adoption and understanding of the blockchain has grown a lot recently. Before only a small percentage even knew what bitcoin is, now most people know, many people are also starting to understand the benefits and the revolutionary nature of the blockchain.
Okay so now let's start looking at numbers. More specifically the number of daily Steemit users. I only want to focus on the active users because in my opinion hundreds of thousand of account that are not being used don't mean anything really.
It's like saying that 50 thousand people bought the ticket to see the game but only 2 thousand show up. The actual commitment and participation is what matters. So here you can see the numbers below and the percentage change.
Date Active users %increase
2017-7-13 23,021
2017-9-13 26,552 15.3%
2017-11-13 27,163 2.3%
2018-01-13 45,165 66.3%
2018-02-13 62,534 38.5%
Looking at these numbers and percentage changes you can see that there has been a huge spike in active users since the beginning of the year. The number of new users has increased dramatically and it's easy to see it in the number of active users. Now I believe this recent spike will continue and we will see continued increases in these numbers.
I think we will see exponential growth soon. To make things a bit easier I have chosen to count an average increase of 50 percent per month from now on. It's higher than previous month but I think it could be the median growth from now till the end of the year. I know this doesn't reflect an exponential growth but represent a median increase I think can be quite accurate. So if we will see an average 50 percent increase per month we would have the following scenario:
2018-03-13 93,801
2018-04-13 140,701
2018-05-13 211,052
2018-06-13 316,578
2018-07-13 474,867
2018-08-13 712,301
2018-09-13 1,068,452
2018-10-13 1,602,678
2018-11-13 2,404,017
2018-12-13 3,606,025
According to this forecast we could have 3,6 million active users at the end of 2018. That's completely crazy right ? I admit myself it's a bit crazy, and I think the end number would have to be adjusted to a lower one. Either way, considering how many active users are on Facebook this is still a drop in the bucket, plus there are so many new platforms which you can use to post on the Steem blockchain. So people don't necessarily have to join Steemit. They might want to use Zapl, steepshot, Dmania or Dtube. There will be millions of reasons to get an account to access the Steem blockchain and I can't wait to see how 2018 will develop . What is your prediction ?