- Bitcoin Course Challenge Week 10
- Central Banks and Bitcoin? A Journey around the Globe (Part 2)
- Bitcoin Adaptation: Craigslist and Gold
- Bulgaria: Banks have frozen Accounts of Crypto Exchanges
- Crypto Exchanges facing Problems due to Bitcoin Boom
- Bitcoin Course Analysis for Week 49/2017
🏆BITCOIN COURSE CHALLENGE Week 10🏆
The RULES are simple, write the Bitcoin Price USD for the next Sunday 13:00 UTC time and your Bitshares or OpenLedger account name ( like this $ 4,459.44 danyelk1 ) in the comment section of this post. I will accept your answers till Friday 13:00 UTC time.
The one who has the right Bitcoin price or has the closest guess will be the WINNER.
The WINNER will be announced next Sunday.
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Have fun and show us your Bitcoin forecast skills
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you are the WINNER of the BITCOIN COURSE CHALLENGE Week 9!!!
While the Bitcoin of these days climbs unprecedented heights beyond the last astronomical $ 17,000, there is not only euphoria and gold rush mood, but also doubts, skepticism and fear of the next uncontrolled tulip around the cryptocurrencies - especially by state authorities and central banks.
When governments, state institutions and public authorities are asked, there is no consensus as to how to handle the emerging economic power outside of conventional control. On the contrary, depending on which spot of our earth falls the view, there is rather a patchwork of state answers instead of a unanimous tenor.
To regulate or not to regulate - that is the question. And the guards of the world economy are in disagreement.
While those who want to force a market power, cryptocurrencies know the money status, do not even see the responsibility or consider the monetary risk as too small, others are getting the blow. With the regulative lasso they want to move the digital currencies back into the safe hands of the authorities.
The following overview takes you on a journey around the globe: It is intended to provide an overview of the global situation and - without any claim to completeness - to disclose differences in state approaches.
Part 2 takes us this week through a selection of those countries that fear dangers and risks, but also recognize potentials in cryptocurrencies. They are uncertain and are still waiting to see if regulative measures are necessary and what form they should take.
The waiting States - Part 2
The European Union:
Anyone who studies the future of cryptocurrencies in the Eurozone can not avoid the European Central Bank ECB. Thus, with the view of the price explosion of the last year, an echo from Frankfurt is heard again and again. However, the ECB remains in a wait-and-see attitude, but warns, but it still has to make a concrete call for action. For example, Vice President Vitor Constancio did not speak of a bitcoin "tulip" until September, while ECB board member Yves Mersch warned commercial banks would be too slow to compete with cryptocurrencies. In view of such risks, Board member Benoît Cœuré also emphasized in October that one must keep an eye on cryptocurrencies because of their criminal potential for money laundering and tax evasion. Away from these warnings, however, he recently confirmed the ECB's stance, which Mario Draghi has always led and avoids from regulative action: Cryptocurrencies are not a "monetary risk" for the stability of the euro, their influence is too low. Mario Draghi had also pointed out last year that the ECB was in any case lacking the power to intervene regulatively. An upcoming intervention by the central bank is therefore not expected.
The EU member states: Germany and France:
If you look at the member states and especially at the financial engines of the EU, the fears of some ECB directors are confirmed.
For example, Bundesbank CEO Jens Weidmann praised innovations in the financial sector in the middle of the year, which would be brought about by cryptocurrencies. At the same time he warned against the dangers of their decentralized nature and emphasized the problem of a lack of central control. Likewise, Management Board member Carl-Ludwig Thiele had previously warned consumers against using Bitcoin as a store of value. Because their risks are unmanageable. One reason for this is the high volatility of Bitcoin, for example.
Like the Deutsche Bundesbank, the French central bank Bitcoin also considers it a speculative object. For example, François Villeroy de Galhau, governor of the Banque de France, vigorously warned against the use of bitcoin in early December. One should be aware that this is in no way a currency, not even a cryptocurrency.
However, regulation is not expected by both states. This is primarily due to the financial sovereignty and pioneering role of the ECB for the euro area.
United Kingdom:
Quite different, however, looks the attitude of the still-EU member United Kingdom. Meanwhile, the Bank of England sees cryptocurrencies by far more hopeful glasses. For example, central bank director Mark Carney spoke of a potential revolution that could be triggered by virtual payment alternatives. For example, Carney sees potential in the area of data security and cyber defense, which would be strengthened by the underlying blockchain technology of cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, the Bank of England is far from getting its own digital version of the Sterling on the way. It is currently looking at the regulation of existing cryptocurrencies.
USA:
If you throw your eyes from Europe across the pond, the wait-and-see attitude of the old world is confirmed. Currently, the US Federal Reserve's investigations, the Federal Reserve, are still in their infancy. A possible regulatory response in the face of the crypto boom is currently little more than a silver lining. Although Federal Reserve Board member Jerome Powell emphasized this year's need to keep a firm eye on possible government responses and risk management. Because basically cryptocurrencies could represent a central bank challenge. Monetary policy, however, this situation is still far away. Rather, cryptocurrencies are currently "just not big enough". Any vulnerabilities for consumers could also be closed by private providers, so that state intervention is not necessary.
How the individual states react to the Bitcoin wave, however, remains exciting. The State of Georgia is currently enthusiastic and has set up the first Bitcoin machines this week.
Meanwhile, especially the Bitcoin gets more and more weight at the American futures exchanges - nevertheless a governmental response is not to be expected at first.
Singapore:
The journey continues to the west: While Singapore is becoming the best friend of the blockchain these days, seemingly regulating its neighbors, the Southeast Asian tiger state is still on hold. In October, central bank director Ravi Menon underlined that Singapore has crony currencies in its sights but does not want to regulate them. The need for fiscal regulation is simply not there. Instead, they wanted to counter the criminal potential with anti-money laundering controls at the middle level.
Interim conclusion:
The torch, which Bitcoin anticipates in these days of the steadily growing importance of cryptocurrencies, shines brightly - this has not escaped states and their central banks.
While, as shown in Part 1, many countries in Asia fear for influence and control, position themselves in defensive positions and put the virtual currencies in the regulatory frame, many countries still reserve this step.
The selection presented in Part 2 aims to show that states between confidence and fear, between regulation and the free market, between security needs and apparent risk-taking, states in a wait-and-see stance are currently assessing the situation, weighing up and dominating the global picture of the regulatory patchwork. How they decide in the future depends on the individual case. At this point, a prognosis seems to be reserved solely for looking into the coffee grounds.
Part 3 of my journey around the globe will leads us to those countries who believe they recognize the potential of cryptocurrencies and want to use them for themselves.
Part 1 you can read here!
The adaptation of cryptocurrencies is progressing. Recently, not only providers on Craigslist can choose to accept payments in Bitcoin & Co. APMEX, an online gold exchange, now accepts crypto payments.
The Craigslist marketplace provides a platform for services, jobs, housing, dating and discussions. The offer, which in addition to English also exists in German, French, Portuguese, Italian and Spanish, can now also be paid in Bitcoin. With 80 million ads per month, this is a high volume of traffic that can potentially be handled through the crypto market.
Providers of services were able to select the acceptance of crypto currencies in their advertisements before. However, the operators have also implemented the option in the platform. With such a large service provider, the possibilities for using cryptocurrencies continue to increase. Another interesting signal, however, comes from a completely different corner: the gold trade.
APMEX now also accepts Bitcoin for the purchase of gold
As announced on December 8, 2017, the largest online exchange for gold now also accepts payments in the cryptocurrency. But that's not all: as an incentive, users who pay with Bitcoin get a small discount.
In a statement, the company emphasizes that they always act in the interests of the customers:
As it turns out, most respond to the current boom in cryptocurrencies in one way or another. While Steam, for example, is currently excluding its acceptance, tomorrow we are facing an involvement on the stock market with the introduction of crypto-futures. However, the fact that APMEX now also carries gold into the cryptocurrencies can always be interpreted as an interesting signal.
On December 8, 2017 it was announced that several major Bulgarian banks have frozen the accounts of all crypto exchanges on Wednesday in the country. In addition, all transfers are currently being blocked by the relevant Bulgarian banks if cryptocurrencies are involved.
Lock came completely surprising
The blockade was completely unexpected: the Bulgarian wallet provider cryptobank.bg announced on its website that none of the banks had informed them in advance about the lock. The reason given was the "pretext" that the bank account was unusable on Wednesday until the end of the business day due to "changes". The day before December 8, 2017 we learned then on demand by phone that the banks have unilaterally terminated the contract in accordance with their general terms and conditions, because you no longer want to be a contracting party. Currently cryptobank.bg works only with the payment provider epay. The business had to be discontinued anyway. The same applies to all other Bulgarian crypto exchanges.
There was no legislative initiative by the government to persuade banks to unilaterally terminate their contracts. Apparently senior executives of First Investment Bank (Fibank) have agreed with the United Bulgarian Bank (UBB) and other houses to end the deal at the same time. Other financial institutions, such as Societe Generale or Piraeus, are said to have telephoned to have no problem with companies earning their money in cryptocurrencies. That is at least reported in the forum bitcoin.bg.
No "subversive action"
In a blog post from the provider cyrpto.bg is trying a little to smooth the waves. The reason for the nationwide suspension was not that the banks suddenly got scared of the Bitcoin and wanted to destroy their competitors in a "subversive action", as some speculated. It is rather the case that the technology of the local banks is very vulnerable to criminals. Comparisons with the holes in a Swiss cheese were called.
The seizure of $ 3.3 billion of Bitcoin credit scores worth $ 3.3 billion in May of this year has certainly played a role, as the Southeast European Law Enforcement Center (SELEC) press release said "only" $ 500 million value. In Bulgaria and 11 other countries countless searches and seizures have been carried out in the fight against organized crime.
How long the Bitcoin blockade of Bulgarian big banks will continue remains to be seen. Currently, due to the lock, none of the Wallet providers there are able to pursue their day-to-day business.
In the course of the on December 7, 2017 wild ride on the crypto market, in which the Bitcoin shot several times in a row through the ceiling, it has apparently come to isolated problems on the market. So the crypto trade did not always run smoothly and everywhere. What does that mean for the mass adaptation of cryptocurrencies?
Bitcoin held a rally beyond compare on December 7, 2017. Starting at just under $ 12,000, the cryptocurrency hurled one barrier after another and climbed to $ 18,300 by Thursday night before cooling off a bit.
The extreme development on the crypto market posed some massive problems on Thursday. This was probably most evident in the Coinbase Exchange GDAX. As the company confirmed via its Twitter account, technical issues were a major challenge for the operator. Among other things, customers had trouble completing transactions that took extra time and logging into their CoinBase accounts. In the night from Thursday to Friday, the site was not reachable for about an hour. The reason given for this was the overload caused by a record transfer at Coinbase.
Coinbase is the largest platform for buying and selling cryptocurrencies in the US, and therefore the first point of entry and subsequent trading with Bitcoin and Co. This outstanding position has now been fatal to operators, as Coinbase and GDAX reach the limits of their technical capabilities met.
Coinbase is the largest platform for buying and selling cryptocurrencies in the US, and therefore the first point of entry and subsequent trading with Bitcoin and Co. This outstanding position has now been fatal to operators, as Coinbase and GDAX reach the limits of their technical capabilities met.
Also in other places there have been problems in the wake of the Bitcoin boom. Thus, the purchase prices of the cryptocurrency differed drastically. The bitcoin price was listed at over $ 19,000 at the South Korean crypto exchange Bithumb at one time, while at the same time it traded on Taiwan's Bitfinex for under $ 15,000.
The infrastructural problems raise the question to what extent cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin actually already have suitability for the mass market. As of today, neither the cryptocurrencies themselves nor the exchanges that operate on them provide the prerequisites to function without any compromises in the event of high fluctuation. If the currency itself is primarily the scaling problem, which is primarily due to high transaction costs and low transaction time, an incident like yesterday proves that the problem of the crypto exchanges is infrastructural. As of today, even market leaders do not yet have the capacity to ensure the flow of money beyond what they have been accustomed to. Only when this problem can be addressed, cryptocurrencies are really mass suitable.
Between Thursday and Friday, a new all-time high of 14,946.27 EUR (17.585,03 USD) was reached - currently, however, the price is falling.
Image based on data from coinbase.com
Summary
- The Bitcoin rate has soared over the week but fell to the end of the week.
- On December 6, a rally began to new all-time highs, which came to an end in the night between 7 and 8 December - but the course crashed a day later into the bottomless.
- Most important short-term resistance is 14,946.27 EUR (17,585.03 USD), most important short-term support at 10,896.25 EUR (12,819.98 USD).
Apparently, the crypto scene was good this year, after all, it came to St. Nicholas to a price increase, which was significantly steeper than the previous trend. This rally culminated in early morning and late night peaks in two peaks on December 7, with the latter now at 14,946.27 EUR (17,585.03 USD), the new all-time high. Since then, there has been a slight correction, a slightly falling plateau, and a dramatic fall in prices, which at times seemed to make up for all the gains made that week.
The MACD (second panel) is of course negative, as is the MACD line (blue) below the signal (orange).
The RSI (third panel) is 21 and strongly oversold.
The analysis of the moves in the 60 mins chart speaks a bearish language, but one should consider that the RSI is oversold. That's the way to hope for a reversal. Most important support is described by the bullish trend seen before December 6 and is currently priced at $ 10,896.25 ($ 12,819.98). The most important resistance in the 60 mins chart is described by the all-time high at 14,946.27 EUR (17,585.03 USD)
The long term course development
Is it over with the rise? Is there a dramatic correction to be expected? For an assessment, we consider the medium and long-term price movements first in the 240 mins chart.
Image based on data from coinbase.com
The medium-term chart is also characterized by an upward trend. Instead of the already discussed here the upward trend, which is pursued since the middle of November, drawn. We can see that since the end of November the price has been an uptrend. The price is still above the exponential moving average of the past two weeks, but the exponential moving average of the past week has been tested.
The MACD is still positive, but the MACD line has fallen below the signal. The RSI stands at 40 and is thus bearish. In the medium term, the situation is neutral to bearish. Key support is described by the ongoing bullish trend since mid-November, which currently stands at $ 9,167.37 ($ 10,785.87). Again, the resistance can be described by the all-time high, which is in the 240 mins chart at 14,635.15 EUR (17,218.99 USD).
Let's take a look at the 1D chart:
Image based on data from coinbase.com
In the long run, however, the price correction is significant, but not dramatic: The steep upward channel addressed last week, marked here in light blue, has now been surpassed. The recent correction attempted to test the former resistance of the upward channel.
The MACD is positive despite the recent correction, as is the MACD line above the signal. The RSI was in overbought territory, but now stands at 69.
Overall, the long-term outlook is bullish from a technical perspective. The most important support is described by the support of the new upward channel and stands at 9,097.02 EUR (10,703.10 USD). Most important resistance is also described here by the all-time high, which is in the 1D chart at 14,525.98 EUR (17,090.54 USD).
Disclaimer:
The course analysis is from the morning MUT time zone and can have changed since. The price estimates presented in this post are not a recommendation to buy or sell. They are merely an estimate of me.
I wish you all a lovely Sunday and a great start in the new week!!!
ⓁⓄⓥⒺ & ⓁⒾⒼⒽⓉ
Best regards
