Intro
This post is a structural follow‑up to the C‑wave consolidation: how the model played out, how the deviation formed, and how April became the exit‑pump liquidity window across ALTs.
It also outlines the current hunt for the new lower high and the macro conditions that still point toward Flush‑2.
You’ll find the full Codex timeline for the 2026 bear cycle at the bottom of this post.
The same weekly chart we have been tracking since Codex VIII — Another Trick Nov 22, 2025 — the roadmap that mapped the entire A→B→C structure before price revealed the outcome.
Brief 2 — C‑Wave Consolidation confirmed Flush‑1 and called for a 6‑week C‑wave consolidation.
Three Red Weeks showed that the structure remained intact and that BTC was still inside the same yellow consolidation box.
The deviation is simply that we are now in week 12 instead of week 6 — timing shifted, structure did not.
Structural Outlook
BTC is still inside the yellow C‑wave box.
Even if BTC wicks above it intra‑week (for example toward 86k), it can still close back inside and form the lower high we are hunting.
A confirmed breakout requires a weekly close above 79.3k — the breakdown candle from Flush‑1.
To flip fully bullish, BTC must make a macro higher high above the B‑peak at 98k.
If that happens, the hunt shifts from a lower high to a higher low for a new bull cycle.
As always, this is a structural outlook — a probability map, not a guarantee.
In my last update, I wrote that the next major brief would be published when one of two confirmations appeared:
• 60k breaks → continuation of the C‑wave → Flush‑2
• the downtrend breaks → deviation → a new structure forming
The downtrend broke — but the macro invalidation did not.
This update documents the deviation — not as a failure of the model, but as an extension of it on HIVE, not Flush‑2 Brief 3 on Substack.
This post documents the execution layer: how the C‑wave consolidation completed, how the deviation formed, and how April became the exit‑pump liquidity window across ALTs.
Recap — The C‑Wave Model Played Out (With One Timing Deviation)
Brief 2 — C‑Wave Consolidation mapped the six‑step C‑wave consolidation model:
- Week 1: capitulation wick
- Week 2–3: controlled drift
- Week 4: lower‑high window
- Week 5: stabilization
- Week 6: flush
The structure played out almost perfectly — except for one deviation:
The 0.786 rotation arrived in Week 7, not Week 4.
This became the swing‑short high at 76k, completing Setup 5 and triggering Setup 6.
Everything else continued to echo the 2022 rhythm.
Substack Tier 1 Playbook (Brief 2): The original C‑wave roadmap exactly as it was published — structure, timing, and the six‑step model before the market delivered the phase.
Plan → Map → Execution: How the C‑wave model played out in real time — the same structure, same rotations.
I don’t just analyze — I document the model in advance and revisit it as the market delivers the phase. Write first, revisit after. That’s the Codex way.
Setup 6 Was Invalidated — MSB #7 Up → HH → Daily Uptrend
After the 0.786 rotation, BTC printed:
- a low
- a lower high
- a lower low
- another lower high
- a higher low
- then MSB #7 up
- and a higher high
This broke the daily downtrend and invalidated Setup 6.
The deviation does not invalidate the macro roadmap.
It shifts the timing — not the probable destination.
Short‑term, structure flipped bullish in April — and so did I.
This is also why I didn’t publish the deviation update earlier — I was fully focused on executing the best phase of the entire bear market.
And as mentioned in Three Red Weeks, the relief long will be treated as the most important long of the entire C‑wave consolidation — which is exactly what the April exit‑pump trades became.
April Became the Exit‑Pump Window (ALT Liquidity Rotation)
Back in February, I wrote that A Rare Tactical Window Inside ALTs were entering a liquidity window, not a reversal.
That window arrived in April — exactly like June 2022:
- compressed structures
- MSB‑ups from cycle lows
- vacuum above
- exit‑pump rotations
- clean 10R–50R opportunities
I traded the entire window coin‑by‑coin.
An example from the journal.
Entries came from LTF MSB confirmations at cycle lows, not from chasing strength.
I don’t trade hope or what I think will happen, I trade repeating structural patterns, not opinions but observations.
The ALT exit pump window will most likely continue until BTC sets a confirmed daily downtrend after a macro LH.
Until then, the laggers can still do theire exit pumps as long as the window is still open.
The LTF triggers and the 3D target toward the October ’25 candle that I shared in February’s Tier 2 PDF for Substack backers (A Rare Tactical Window Inside ALTs), were the same framework I used to trade the April exit‑pump window — I was only 1.5 months early; the structure itself was correct.
Codex Factory
BTC is the generator, and the alt factory is the production line.
BTC keeps uptrend → my factory is running.
Coins are moved up the assembly line by structure.
New candidates are rolled in when the machine has capacity.
This is edge in industrial form.
Funny sidenote:
The finished product that comes out of the Codex factory… is a swing short.
Where We Are Now — Hunting the New Lower High (80–83k)
BTC is now in a daily uptrend, with MSB #7 confirmed and a higher high printed.
Base case remains a lower high in the 80–83k region, unless structure proves otherwise.
86k is the strongest horizontal resistance above.
Confluence:
- CME gap
- A‑wick inefficiency
- 0.618-0.786 retracement
- 200D MA
- daily supply
- momentum topping
- Historically, BTC has never printed three green monthly candles in a row in a bear market
Macro Context — Why This Still Likely Belongs to the Bear Cycle
- Monthly Stoch RSI is still at the bottom
- ASO just crossed red over blue
In 2014, 2018 and 2022, this appeared before capitulation — not after.
Codex summary — when the bottom is most likely in:
When ASO starts to fall + SRSI crosses up above 20 → the bear bottom is finished, a new cycle has started based on history.
The cycle rhythm also aligns with prior tops:
Dec ’17 → Dec ’18
Nov ’21 → Nov ’22
Oct ’25 → …
each major top was followed by a full year of distribution before the real bottom formed.
Flush‑2 remains a valid macro scenario.
A green April followed by a corrective May fits both the structural model and the classic “sell in May” seasonal pattern.
If The Rhythm Continues — 2022 vs 2026
2022 Template:
May: Descending Triangles
June: Exit Pumps
July: Flush‑2
Aug–Nov: Bleeding
2026 So Far:
Mar: Descending Triangles
Apr: Exit Pumps
May: Flush‑2 Window ?
Jun–Oct: Bleeding ?
The structure continues to echo the prior cycle.
Only the timing shifted.
Closing Thoughts
In my opinion, this entire April rally looks like the exit‑pump window — the same liquidity rotation we saw in June 2022 before the second flush.
Flush‑2 remains my base case unless BTC sets a higher high above the B‑peak at 98k — which would shift the macro probabilities.
A real bull market never begins when everyone is bullish.
It begins after months of sideways drift, disbelief, and calls for sub‑20k levels — not at the top of a complacency bounce.
Codex does not predict.
Codex records.
And the next pivot will be logged — as always.
New Cycle, New Timeline
In Codex VIII — Another Trick (published the day after the A‑bottom on Nov 22, 2025), I included a full timeline of every post that mapped the entire bull year before price revealed the outcome — including the public BTC and ETH long setups for the A→B wave, the A→B→C structure, the bounce‑zones, and the LH‑risk.
In the same spirit, here is the Codex timeline for the 2026 bear cycle — every phase logged in real time, before the move, and now archived in sequence.
🗂 Codex Briefs Timeline — Bear Cycle (A → B → C)
| 2026 | Codex Phase | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 22 | Value Logged In Real Time | Confirmed the A→B swing — closed the Codex VIII case study before shifting to Substack |
| Jan 30 | Brief 1 — B‑Peak’s Wave 4, CME Gap, Missing Wave 5 | Showed the 6 internal A→B setups — Setup 6 = B‑top short for the C‑wave — published the day before 80k broke |
| Jan 30 | Hive Promo — Brief 1 | Promo post for Brief 1 |
| Feb 1 | Silent Entries — 11 Swings Before the Breakdown | Swingshorts taken before breakdown — A‑low broke → C‑wave confirmed |
| Feb 4 | A Rare Tactical Window Inside ALTs | Tactical window for Silent Entries — exit pumps ≠ reversal |
| Feb 9 | Brief 2 — C‑Wave Consolidation | Confirmed the C‑wave — mapped the 6‑step consolidation — wick to 60k = Step 1 |
| Feb 9 | Hive Promo — Brief 2 | Promo post for Brief 2 |
| Feb 14 | Liquidity Follow‑Up | Confirmed ALTs liquidity event — delivered C‑wave rotations 1–3 |
| Feb 19 | Three Red Weeks | Setup 4 delivered — three red weeks as mapped — Setup 5 + Setup 6 approaching |
| Feb 28 | How Codex Formed — A Rhythm Recap | Meta‑recap of July 2025 → Feb 2026 — memory → method → rhythm |
| Apr 24 | C‑Wave Follow‑Up (Deviation & Execution) | Showed the 6 internal C-wave consolidation setups. The deviation, the exit‑pump window, and the hunt for the new lower high |
Want the Full Archive as It Unfolds?
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⚖️ Disclaimer
Codex Brief is not financial advice.
All content is documentation and research — a record of structure, rhythm, and market behavior.
© 2025 Codex Research.
All content is original work. Redistribution requires permission.
Tradejournal Links (Private Archive)
These aren’t signals. They’re echoes — timestamps left behind in my private journal. Codex is memory in motion, and these links are the proof. For my own reference.
🔗 Codex Playbook — C‑Wave Consolidation (2022 → 2026) (Feb 7, 2026)
🔗 Codex Playbook Update Tier 1 (Apr 4, 2026)
🔗 HIGH exit pump setup — swing long (daily) (April 17, 2026)
Please do follow if you want to keep up with my next post. Any upvotes or reblogs are hugely appreciated!
Latest post, check out :
🌀 How Codex Formed — A Rhythm Recap (July 2025 → February 2026)
Christopher
Kristiansand, Norway
Source: Photos are chart-screenshots by me from Tradingview.com and screenshots from my personal trading journal.
Legal Disclaimer : Never invest more than what you can afford to lose. I am not a financial advisor and I am sharing my opinion based on speculation. This post is for informational purposes only and provides only my personal opinion. If you make any trades after reading this post, it is completely in your responsibility. I am not responsible for any of your losses. By reading this post you acknowledge and accept that.
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