Price: ~$8,100
24HR:
After being stopped by the 200 EMA yesterday, BTC was unable to keep the upward momentum going & re-broke the 1 Fib shortly before the daily close. As it stands, the 1 Fib & 200 EMA ranging around ($8.8K-$8.2 range) should continue to be hard resistance till they’ve been properly overcome. If BTC is unable to get back inside the 1 Fib soon, a move down to the .618 Fib (low $7K’s) to retest that support is not out of question.
1HR:
In yesterday’s update I had mentioned to be aware of a potential edge to edge cloud move if cloud support faltered. Since then, price has begun to traverse inside the cloud. At the moment, price is attempting to get back inside the broken Tenkan, if successful a move back to top of cloud is possible, then TBD if it can break through. Otherwise, the edge to edge will continue to unfold with target at the bottom of the cloud.
Weekly Close Views:
Cloud:
Weekly cloud view continues to look uninspiring with price well below the Tenkan & Kijun. While the long bottom wick is an indicator of upward momentum attempting to take place, it’s so far not been enough to make any significant gains. Conversely though, the weekly cloud itself remains green, however will only be able to stay green for so long without making higher high’s.
Pitchfork:
On the weekly pitchfork BTC took a trip to the top of the median channel & managed to wick itself back to close right on the 1 Fib. If price is able to maintain & push upwards, the 1 Fib may be turning support. However, given that it’s a weak bodied close, it’s still possible to take a trip down to the .618 Fib (low $7K’s) for retesting of support if the 1 Fib resistance becomes too heavy.
EMA:
In yesterday’s update I had alluded to keep an eye on the EMA weekly close. During the intra-trade of the week, price was able to make its way back to the 25 weekly EMA (~$9K), but quickly retreated and closed beneath. If there comes a point at which Bulls can create a weekly close above the 25 EMA, this would be a strong signal of potential reversal, however till then will remain hard resistance. Like the Pitchfork fibs above, if price is unable to get back over the 25 EMA soon, more consolidation between EMA’s likely & a retest trip to the 50 EMA (~$6.8K) is not out of question.
Prognosis:
BTC had a strong bounce week, however it’s too be determined still if the bounce was strong enough to reverse the recent bear market we’ve been experiencing. Another important week ahead in Crypto, BTC maintaining $8K+ support will be important for bulls to have a chance of reversal, failing to do so will mean retests of supports possible. Hard resistance remains in the upper $8K’s & confluences of supports in EMA & Pitchfork fibs in ($6.8-$7.2K range).
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