Unpopular Opinion:
Do you hope Hive moons and we all get filthy rich during this next mega-bubble? I don't! I absolutely do not. I hope we trade at 80 cents while everything else goes x100.
BLASTPHEMER!
Why would I say such things? Because I'm a volatility harvester. When one of my bags moons, I sell into my other bags, and when one of my bags crashes into the mountain I sell my other bags to buy more. This is volatility farming, and so far it has been an insanely profitable strategy for me.
When I was selling 1 LEO for 4 Hive people in LEO Discord were dunking on Hive something fierce, trying to tell me this was a terrible idea and that the gap would just keep getting wider and wider. Now that I can trade 1 Hive back into 3 LEO my trade is looking pretty damn smart in retrospect.
Two days ago I canceled my modest 1000 Hive per week powerdown and jacked it up to 10k per week. I've been telling myself I need to start a powerdown in November for over six months now, and would ya look at that, November is here.
With Hive flatlining at 80 cents for the last week the results are in: Hive is likely due for a pretty big pump soon™. Support at 80 cents was solidified by that pump up to $1.17 recently. Whenever we get one of these pumps it never lasts, but it fully cements the previous support in place.
- The pump up to $1.12 cemented the 50 cent support.
- The pump up to $1.57 cemented the 70 cent support.
- The pump up to $1.17 cemented the 80 cent support.
80 cents has always been a critical level.
If we look back to our Steem price-action history 80 cents was a huge level as well. 80 cents has been a big deal all the way back to 2017. 80 cents was the floor price of Steem from May to November 2017, and then again in 2018 before the crippling dip at the end of the year. 80 cents has pretty much been a prime target for the last four years, and we are finally sitting on top of that level as support. This signals to me that the market is about to get crazy again, just as expected.
But I hope it doesn't though.
Hive is the best asset I've found for volatility trading ever ever ever. In December 2020 when everyone was losing their minds as BTC was going x4 from $10k to $40k, what was Hive doing? Trading totally flat in the 10-15 cent range. While everyone else was bitching and moaning I was stacking Hive at 400 sats a pop. Wow, what a deal.
The goal for me has always and will always be to get as much Hive as possible. Hive is my number one by quite a wide margin. However, sometimes you have to sell Hive to earn Hive, as contrary as that sounds. We can make just as much money turning bearish on these volatile markets at the right time as we can when we're bullish.
That being said I'm not bearish on Hive. I don't think the price will go down. I'm just hoping it trades flat. If Hive stayed at 80 cents during another x4 run that would be fantastic, because then I'd be able to trade all my other gains into Hive knowing full well it wasn't going to crash. Let me tell you: I'd sure as shit rather hold Hive than stinky fiat. Fiat is the last resort of a mega-bubble market.
But alas, hive probably will moon. Harder than it has since our brand's inception during April 2020 during that insane Huobi listing where we went 10x. A 10x is clearly on the table some time for Hive... I'm just hoping it happens AFTER everything else moons so I can get that double run up like I did in December 2020. Who knows, sometimes lightning strikes twice. I'll get to whale status eventually; mark my words. Looks like I won't even have to build a killer dapp to achieve this legendary milestone. Who'd a thunk it.
For me, this is not about making money.
My volatility trading and portfolio rebalancing doesn't come from a money-making standpoint, but rather a political narrative. I put my money where my mouth is. I support my politics with my money, because money is the voice of conveying value. Money runs the world.
Therefore, when I buy a struggling asset with bags that are doing well, that's not me trying to make money, that's me trying to help a struggling network that clearly needs help. I've done this many times with Hive.
But now my Hive bag is my biggest bag.
So it makes sense that I would sell some Hive back into the networks that I used to support Hive a year ago. I need more BTC, ETH, LTC, XMR, etc etc. I'm also moving into new networks like RUNE and MATIC and the money has to come from somewhere. Hive has been my main source of value for a while now due to how zealously and aggressively I supported it in the past. Hopefully these other networks moon before Hive so I can get my Hive back and feel like my account is whole again. 200k Hive is a nice unit-bias level.
Conclusion
I am a bit hesitant to dump any kind of significant amount of Hive at this juncture. Hive could x10 at any time. It could x10 tomorrow or it could x10 after everything else has already mooned. Hive is totally disconnected from the larger market, which is why volatility trading is so profitable with this token. Sell the spikes, buy the blood in the streets.
Realistically we are at the point where everything is bullish. Even the Federal Reserve is telling us everything is going to crash and it's crypto and China's fault. That signals to me: buy more crypto. Doesn't really matter which one at this point. Number go up.
It's worth pointing out one more time that crypto mooning is a money attack on the system. We shouldn't want prices to rise unless that increase is not only sustainable, but decentralized in nature with thousands of new users pouring in. If a couple billionaires decide to ape in: that's not a good thing. It's a venture capitalist attack and we should be very cautious of such events.
In the end we live in a mad world. The Titanic legacy economy is sinking, and crypto lifeboats are the only ones available. Lifeboats will capsize as well if the waves are big enough. We have to play it safe and not get greedy. Don't fly too close to the sun; that Lambo can wait I assure you.