I'm reading this super interesting book right now called The Fourth Turning. I encourage anyone interested in American history (or history in general) to read it and properly prepare yourselves for what is to come. 
"Turnings" Explained
The four turnings each last 20-22 years. Together, they create a full cycle of 80-90 years. These individual turnings are as follows:
- High - This is the period after a crisis. The country is united in their vision of the future. Collectivism is predominant and individualism is weak.
- Awakening - Individualism begins to reawaken. Institutions are attacked.
- Unraveling - Institutions have weakened, individualism thrives. There is distrust in government.
- Crisis - The era of destruction that ends in war or revolution.
“The most effective way to destroy people is to deny and obliterate their own understanding of their history.”― George Orwell
Authors William Strauss and Neil Howe talk about how these same four turnings of American history have repeated themselves over and over again throughout the country’s existence and explain that we're in the fourth/final turning. Each generation within the full 80-90 year cycle has a dominant archetype corresponding to the cycle it was raised in -- High/Prophet, Awakening/Nomad, Unraveling/Hero, Crisis/Artist.
Deciphering Our Current 80-90 Year Cycle
Our current timeline is as follows, and begins in 1945 with the end of World War II. (dates are approximate):
1. High/Prophet: 1945 to 1965(7);
I was born in 1971 so this would place my generation (Gen X) in the nomad archetype. Nomad generations are raised during an awakening, a time of social ideals and spiritual agendas, when young adults are passionately attacking the established institutional order (i.e. the hippy generation). Nomads grow up as under-protected children during this awakening, come of age as alienated, post-awakening young adults, become pragmatic midlife leaders during a Crisis, and age into resilient post-Crisis elders.
"Nomad" is an accurate description of me. I’m happiest when I’m traveling, with very few possessions, and experiencing new cultures on a daily basis. Although I get a sense that it’s going to be increasingly difficult to accomplish this in the years to come. My summary here is very high-level and lacking in many of the finer details but upon deep dissection of the individual turnings I think Strauss and Howe may very well be onto something with their theory.
How accurate is your own generational archetype from the list above?
The Fourth Turning was written at the end of the 1990's and I'm surprised about how much they've gotten right about the events that unfolded in the years that followed. They predict a major upheaval between now and 2030, of which I believe we're already running towards.
“If you don't know history, then you don't know anything. You are a leaf that doesn't know it is part of a tree. ”― Michael Crichton
Following the pattern of past events, in this next decade (2020-2030) we can expect one or more of the following: financial collapse; large scale social upheaval which could ultimately lead to civil war or revolution; and/or war with another country or superpower. America has found itself in this fourth "crisis" turning several times before and has always survived and even become a stronger country for it. However, there are no guarantees that this winning streak will continue.
The world is a much smaller place than it was in 1997 when this book was originally written. The internet and ease of global travel have brought us all much closer together. World financial markets are now intricately intertwined. Looking through the lens that our age provides, I believe this generational theory reaches far beyond America’s shores and may apply to the entire developed world.
People, on a global scale, are beginning to think critically and are waking up to the systemic corruption. I’m not referring to “woke culture” here either. This is something altogether different. The truly awakened see through smoke and mirrors and want desperately to throw off their shackles. They realize that the status quo is toxic to its core and doesn’t work for anyone but the very few at the top.
Those who aren't yet awake see anyone who holds a different opinion than theirs as “the enemy”. They dig in their heels, argue and fight with anyone who challenges their belief system (Democrat or Republican). Those who are awake realize they don't have a dog in the fight because they recognize the severe fissures and inadequacies in foundations of both sides of the argument.
For anyone who's interested in history and are looking for a possible road map for the future and a greater understanding of themselves I would highly encourage you to find yourselves a copy of The Fourth Turning read it, then pass it along to your children or younger relatives. Knowledge is undoubtedly power. One thing is for certain, this next decade is shaping up to be one hell of a ride.
With Gratitude,
Eric Vance Walton
(Gif sourced from Giphy.com)
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