2017 has been a roller coaster — both in the US and abroad, the year ends with the world in a very different place from where it was 12 months ago.
Now, as has become our tradition, the Business Insider military-and-defense team will predict the future.
In the past, we've done well. Last year we correctly identified many of the problems the world would face in 2017, including some that directly challenged the new US president, Donald Trump.
It's clear Trump will have more decisions and crises to face in the coming year. To be sure, other global leaders will as well, but the "America First" president has proved to be unpredictable, if nothing else.
Here's what we think will happen in 2018:
Trump will remain president of the United States
Impeachment papers introduced in the House. Senators calling for his resignation over sexual-assault allegations. And the special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation getting closer to the White House with each new revelation.
It can seem sometimes that the walls are closing in on Trump's presidency. But in all likelihood, he'll still be in office when 2018 comes to a close.
Impeachment proceedings have been shot down by Democratic leadership. Even if "Chuck and Nancy" take up the cause, they're still the opposition party — Republicans control both houses of Congress and so far have not seemed compelled to usher out a president of their party.
A growing number of Democrats are calling for Trump's head over longstanding sexual-assault allegations, but those issues were in public view well before the election. Even as a sea change takes over Washington and takes down more lawmakers, the allegations against the president didn't hobble his candidacy, and, barring some new revelation, the White House will stick to its denials.
The obvious albatross around Trump's neck is Mueller's investigation and the president's potential ties to Russia.
Everyone from his campaign chairman to his national security adviser to his son-in-law may be caught up in it. But Trump remains the president — and will through the next year.
— Peter Jacobs, Military & Defense Editor
The US and North Korea will not enter into large-scale war
As I have argued elsewhere, both the US and North Korea have too much to lose to go to war. Both sides can achieve a palatable outcome without exchanging nukes.
That said, Trump will continue his "maximum pressure" approach to North Korea and bring the world to the brink of war. North Korea will complete additional tests of nuclear devices or ballistic missiles. International diplomats will bite their fingernails to the stub, but ultimately a large-scale war won't break out.
This is not to say small scuffles won't happen. The US may board a North Korean ship or attempt to shoot down a missile.
North Korea may shell a relatively uninhabited part of South Korea. It may detain more US or South Korean citizens. It may lodge a cyberoffensive or emulate some of Russia's "hybrid war" tactics in the South, but the big show doesn't happen.
Remember: There is tremendous leverage in threatening to initiate the end of the world with nuclear war but nothing to be gained by actually doing it.
— Alex Lockie, News Editor!
China will flex its muscles in the Sea of Japan
China's actions in the Pacific have not exactly been warm and inviting.
China conducted numerous flying missions that made Japan rather nervous this year. These were usually with H-6 bombers and other surveillance aircraft over the Miyako Strait, an open area of water between the Japanese islands of Miyako and Okinawa.
When Japan complained about violations of its airspace and the increased activity, the Chinese responded with a terse statement: "Get used to it."
With China's rhetoric getting increasingly assertive, and its new aircraft carrier sailing the waters, China can be expected to flex its naval muscle in the area.
— Ben Brimelow, Military & Defense Intern
Mexico's bloodshed will continue and, most likely, deepen
2017 seems likely to end as Mexico's most violent year in the past two decades.
Homicide data for the past two months is yet to come in, but the 23,968 homicide victims reported though October are nearly 27% more than over the same period last year. The 20,878 homicide cases (which can contain more than one victim) recorded through October well exceed the 16,881 registered over the same period in 2016 and are already more than the 20,547 seen all of last year.
Analysts have said only about half of these killings are related to organized crime, but homicides are not the only rising indicator of insecurity. The number of overall crimes reported rose 13% during the first 10 months of the year; attempted homicides with a firearm rose 39%; violent robberies were up 38%. Extortion cases were up 12%, and sexual attacks increased over 10%.
In the near term, it's not clear what the Mexican authorities can do to bring down this violence. Much of it is driven by the fragmentation of larger criminal groups that have broken down under law-enforcement pressure.
But state and local police officers will continue to be largely ineffective or nonexistent. The Mexican government is considering a law that would formalize the military's decadelong domestic role fighting criminal groups, but many are alarmed at the potential for a permanent military presence.
All signs are that things will get worse in Mexico before they get better.
— Christopher Woody, Military & Defense Reporter