Russia's annexation of the tiny eastern european country Crimea (2.7 million people) and the near certainty they played a hand in the MH17 crash are not kind harbingers of the country's future plans. Current sanctions (freezing bank accounts for Russian leaders and travel bans on members of intelligence community) are in place to discourage the Russians from any further nefarious behavior, but for the most part, the buck stops at what many equate to as a slap-on-the-wrist.
Why aren’t more aggressive actions being taken against a country that is engaging in borderline acts of war?
Here are 5 reasons why nobody wants to mess with Russia.
1) Gas
Russia has the largest reserve of natural gas in the world.
2) Oil
In case you didn't notice, Russia is a really big freaking country - and it contains a boatload of oil (about the 3rd largest in the world). Over 40% of the oil coming into Europe originates in Russia. Historically, Russia's biggest single handed investor has been Shell.
If Europe wants to go on the attack against their Russian neighbor, it would have to be a multilateral effort across all of its nations, as no country wants to single handedly be squeezed out for biting the hand that feeds them.
If all else fails, there's always Saudi Arabi. They'd be more than happy supplying oil to Europe (most likely only jacking up the price 30% as a premium).
"[Russia] is a regional power that is threatening some of its immediate neighbours, not out of strength but out of weakness. We [the US] have considerable influence on our neighbours. We generally don’t need to invade them in order to have a strong co-operative relationship with them.” - President Barack Obama
3) Geography
Russia spans across Europe and Asia and has borders that put it within striking distance of every major industry from Syria to China to Japan to Germany. If Russia is a regional power than California is a flyover state...
Size isn't everything, but that's one heck of a no-fly zone, and again, a tremendous amount of resources that one country can tap into. Any form of military attack would need to again be a joint effort most likely between Asia and Europe, which barring something miraculous, would be historically unprecedented.
4) Military
There's some debate to just how mighty the once super-mighty Russian military actually is. Global Fire Power ranks it as the second most powerful nation, behind the United States, and there are several factors they look at in determining this measurement.
Russia has:
- A population of 46,812,553 that is fit for service (no detailed explanation as to what implies "fit")
- Roughly a 75,000 person labor force
- 7 major ports and terminals
- 1,218 serviceable airports
,,,Now compare this to the United States, which has:
- A population of 120,022,084 fit for service
- A 155,000,000 person labor force
- 24 major ports and terminals
- 13,513 serviceable airports
Germany is the 6th most powerful country and ranks as follows:
- Fit for service 29,538,413
- 710 aircrafts
- 82 naval carriers
- 43,920,000 labor force
- 539 airports
- 13 major ports and terminals
Despite Russia's "aging" population (more Russian pregnancies end in abortion than live birth) Russia still has an estimated 3,300 nuclear missiles left over from the Cold War days, and its safe to say most of those are pointing towards the U.S. Still, one of Russia's greatest strength is in its Air Force, which is very comparable to the United State's air fleet (albeit the U.S. is believed to be more advanced when it comes to drones…for now).
“Russia is never as strong or as weak as it appears” – Charles Maurice de Talleyrand French Foreign Minister 19th century
5) Keep Your Enemies Closer than your Friends
Okay so what does this mean? Well, the U.S. and Russia have, as far back as 2012, cooperated in military exercises on a WEEKLY basis. The U.S. and Russia carried out global security mission training and simulations side by side. “We did about 50 events. So, a very robust, cooperative effort between our militaries,” said Rear Admiral Mark C. Montgomery.
Could the fact that each side has some understanding of the other's moves play a factor in a possible "attack."
Probably not a chance in hell, as both sides undoubtedly have plenty of tricks up their sleeves...but it's interesting to note, nevertheless.