You don’t have to spend hour upon hour studying or be a stat geek to succeed at fantasy football, here are some simple yet common mistakes to avoid.
1- Check your emotions at the door!
I grew up in Minnesota so of course I’m a big Vikings fan and almost everyone here hates the Packers, but I have seen this drive fantasy players to make horrible, emotional and stupid fantasy picks. Whether it is the Vikings fan drafting Christian Ponder. Come on really!?! He is a great guy but should not have ever been on anyone’s fantasy rosters. How about the Tim Tebow Kool Aid, how many drank that? I’m a Christian, in fact I am a pastor, I love Tim Tebow the man, he does a lot of good, but that doesn’t make him a good quarterback and certainly not a good fantasy choice, yet so many keep him on their bench hoping against hope he might be the next Joe Montana.
He is one example. I won the very first league I was in, hopefully some of it was talent, I’m sure a lot of it was beginners luck, but one of the reasons I did was because of a young qb from Green Bay that almost every Vikings fan refused to draft because of the team he played for and his name was Brett Favre. I got him sinfully late in the draft, which allowed me to get many other talented players. He went on to lead the league in td passes with 38 and my team to victory.
Sometimes this bias can have the opposite effect if you’re not careful. I have been so worried at times that my love for the Vikes might make me biased so I overcompensated and I have actually avoided certain Vikings players to my own detriment.
Or your past experiences with a player can blind you. I have heard people say regarding certain players “he helped me last year” or “last year he burned me”. Loyalty has nothing to do with your team, these players didn't know you drafted them, or could care less. Every year is a new year and each year you have to make unemotional, honest, open minded assessments of each player based on facts, not hunches, feelings or emotions.
I have been in bidding leagues where two men have got into a bidding war for a player because they were so competitive with each other they would rather die than see the other one get that coveted free agent, subsequently they way over paid for them. Last year I saw 3 men, all relatives and highly competitive, bidding for Stephon Diggs, who at the time had 4 amazing games, but was still an unproven rookie, when it was all said and done they paid $117 dollars for him even though the salary cap is only 200 dollars to fill 16 positions.
Do you have a favorite team or player? Great so do I, so buy their jersey, watch them on TV, but don’t let that bias blind you. You can still root for your favorite team to win and win your fantasy league all at the same time, trust me you drafting certain players or not drafting them doesn’t change karma, luck or their chances of winning, be smart, not emotional. In fact during drafts and free agency I try to exploit those that are too emotional for my own team’s benefit.
2- Don’t leave dead weight on your bench!
You can never have too much talent on your bench, trust me!!! I have seen teams time and time again have really good drafts so they ignore the free agent market the first few weeks because “my starters are set” and while they do this other teams gobble up valuable free agents to stash on their benches.
Sadly, I have seen the fortune of these teams change 180 degrees in one unfortunate weekend. They enter Sunday’s games loaded and one day later their team is a triage center, but now the free agent market has nothing to offer but left overs as other teams had already dug through the free agents and grabbed anyone with even the slightest of potential.
I ignored my own advice last year to my detriment. This was a dynasty league I was in and I suggested to my son he should pick up a running back named Rawls who was available, I saw some potential and a great situation with Lynch getting older, so he took my advice. That same week, someone had dropped Doug Martin who had started the year slow, I was surprised that anyone would even dare think of dropping a viable back like him, but I had great backs and I wouldn’t even consider starting him ahead of my studs, so I suggested to my wife she should grab him. No concerns on my end right? I was set with Jamaal Charles and LeVeon Bell, I’m fine! Well as you know within a short period of time both of those backs suffered season ending injuries. Boy I wish I had stashed Martin and Rawls on my bench.
Here is another reason to not leave good talent out there. Why help out your competition? Rather pick up those FA’s and keep them off of your competitions roster.
The final reason to load up your bench. Maybe you don’t need another good running back on your bench, but you may need help at wide out and you can always trade this extra talent to fill a need. That bench space can become great trade bait.
3- Forget about the bye weeks or the playoffs during the draft!
When I started playing fantasy many years ago the game was different, we didn't use the computer to follow the game, often leagues limited your free agent moves, now that isn’t the case. Why worry about your backup QB or kicker for the bye weeks when you may not need them for 7 or 8 weeks and in the meantime miss out on some great position players you could stash.
The year Odell Beckham Jr came out in most leagues he went undrafted, so when he was a rookie would you rather have had him on your bench or let’s say kicker Nick Novak for bye weeks? Please, give me a break.
Here is something else to consider; often the backup QB’s, kickers and defenses on your bench that you have there for bye weeks, well there is a reason they didn’t go early with the higher ranked players, they simply aren’t that good and often by the time your bye week comes around you will have found a better bye week replacement who you can pick up based on that week's matchup and drop the following week.
Don’t focus on playoffs too early. I love when a guy drafts a player and says he has great matchups weeks 14-16, so I’m set for the playoffs. First, you have to get to the playoffs, so don’t count your chickens before they hatch. Second, those strength of schedule predictions are based on the previous years teams performances, but as we know a lot can happen during the offseason and usually it takes 2-3 weeks in the new year before we can see some concrete trends about defenses and match ups to determine the strength of schedule for the playoff weeks.
Should you adjust your roster for the playoffs? Yes, if you are on pace to make it in you can begin to adjust about 3 weeks out. Also, never get so playoff focused you make a hasty move and tank your team in the meantime.
4- Learn your scoring system!
I’m in a dynasty league that is also a PPR league, before playing in this league I had played in different leagues and I had a lot of success in those leagues, but this was my first PPR league and my mistake was I thought it can’t be that different so I ignored the scoring rules and played and drafted as I had always done. I had moderate success, but my team wasn’t great until I notice that all the good teams were top heavy in talented receivers while at times ignoring their running backs.
It took me 2 years before I understood the the major difference in PPR leagues and standard leagues, once I adjusted my approach and emphasis in drafting I shot up the standings and finished 3rd, 1st, and 2nd in the last three years. To help you understand on how a different scoring system can change the value of a player consider this. Last year Jarvis Landry ended up 10th in league scoring for wide receivers in PPR leagues, but he dropped to 30th in leagues with standard scoring.
I run a league in which we start three wide outs and wide outs can include any combination of receivers or tight ends, but what most ignore is our scoring adjustments; tight ends get the yardage bonus at 75 yards while receivers get it a 100 yards, therefore greatly increasing the value of TE’s. Know your scoring system and adjust your approach accordingly!
5- Having no draft strategy or being too rigid in your strategy during the draft.
Have a draft strategy! Now this is easier to do in dynasty leagues or drafting with familiar friends. You can also do this by studying mock drafts, knowing the rules and the scoring system of your league.
I have some basic goals I plan to achieve in the draft. I ask, is it qb heavy, but lacks solid running back depth? If it is a dynasty league I ask, who is kept and what are the needs of not just my team but other teams? In the last draft I was in 10 QB’s got protected, I knew I could wait a while for mine.
I ask where do I pick in the draft and what should still be on the board? If I have a sleeper pick in mind I estimate how far I safely feel he can fall before I have to grab him. Example: the year Randy Moss was a rookie most projected he might go in fantasy drafts maybe in rounds 10-12, sooner in Vikings territory. Why so late? The Vikes already had 2 great receivers in Jake Reed, who had come off of 4 consecutive 1,000 yard seasons and HOFer Cris Carter. Well we had someone draft him in the first round and Randy ended up having 17 touchdown receptions that year, so they made a good pick right? WRONG! He was sort of a sleeper, they could have loaded up with talent and still got him safely in rounds 4 or 5. What makes a good pick simply isn’t how they performed, but when you got them or how much you paid for him.
Have a plan, but stay flexible. Every Draft will be different, have ebbs and flows, trends, so watch and observe the direction it goes and adjust your plan accordingly.
I drafted in a league recently where it was mid-draft and now I was building my bench and I was looking for some extra talent at receiver or runningback. Well, it got to me and I was looking at 5 or 6 receivers who were all about the same talent, they all had about the same ceiling and floor, so who do I take? I noticed that the teams after me aren't looking for a WR and I’m certain as least one of those will still be on the board when it comes back to me on the next pick, so I uncharacteristically took my kicker, which usually I wouldn’t. I landed the best kicker three years running with Gostkowski and sure enough one of the receivers I wanted was still there my next pick.
6- Improperly measuring the preseason!
Some put too much value on preseason play, while others totally ignore it. The preseason is great to analyze younger players or players recovering from injuries. My first year playing fantasy I noticed a young second year player was lighting up the scoreboard in the preseason, although not too many fantasy experts said much about him. So late in my draft I picked him up and stashed him on my bench. The player was Isaac Bruce who went on that year to produce a line of 119-1781-13, I’m glad I took notice. Just off of the top of my mind players like Arian Foster, Antonio Gates, Odell Beckham Jr, Anquin Boldin were overlooked and often went undrafted their rookie years in many fantasy leagues even though they had great preseasons.
With that said don’t sweat it if a veteran player struggles or doesn’t play at all. If Adrian Peterson sits out preseason games, so what, rest assured he will be just fine. Last preseason Bradford look like Dan Marino in preseason, but in the regular season he looked a lot more like Trent Dilfer.
7- Misplaying the match up game.
Too many times I have seen fantasy owners sit great players because they have a tough matchup to only go on and see them go off for 3 td’s and 100 yards and those points sitting on their bench, how sad and funny!
Will you sit Julio Jones against the league’s top corner Josh Norman or Sherman? I hope not. First ask this question do you honestly have a receiver on your bench even close to Julio’s caliber even if they have a great match up? No player is matchup proof, but if you try to get too cute playing match ups you will get burned. When all else fails play your studs! The match up game is best played with middle of the road talent, or your second rb and 2nd or 3rd receivers, not your #1’s Also, often what separates the 10th best pass defense and the 25th is usually only 50-75 yards and that is often against marginal receivers.
Here are some final quick thoughts
-Don’t undervalue the need for a good kicker and defense. Yes, don't be the guy who takes a kicker in the 3rd round, but these points add up over time and make a difference.
-Remember good defenses don’t always make for good fantasy defenses.
-Don’t waste your time studying college players, you’re not Mel Kiper, focus your time on those who have already arrived in the bigs.
It is okay to go off script and not follow the “experts” they are human and aren’t always right, but if you’re ever struggling to know what to do when all else fails follow the consensus, usually the majority isn't a bad way to go.