Week 17 is in the books, and it’s a game-changer.
When I started this experiment, I had a specific mental roadmap of how the profit would look. I anticipated a grind: a lot of "red weeks" (small steady losses) that would eventually be wiped out by massive "green weeks."
But in my head, those green weeks were supposed to come from hitting a perfect 6-fold accumulator on 1X2 or Over/Under. I thought the steady consistency of match predictions would be the jackpot engine.
I was wrong.
The breakthrough didn't come from a "safe" 1X2 ticket. It came from the wildest, highest-variance part of the portfolio: The Correct Score (CS) Ticket.
😲 The Correct Score Surprise
We hit 5 Correct Scores out of 10 predictions. That is already a statistical anomaly. But the real magic was that 3 of those 5 landed inside our CS combination ticket.
- Man City 3-0 ✅
- Everton 0-1 ✅
- Aston Villa 2-1 ✅
This single ticket wiped out weeks of previous losses and pushed the entire project into the green. It’s a reminder that in betting models, variance works both ways—sometimes the "long shots" carry the "sure things."
🤖 The Dilemma: Current vs. Future Model
This success puts me in a strange spot. I am currently deep in the lab building the next evolution of this project—let's call it "The AI Master."
This new system is a beast. It’s not just looking at form; it’s integrating:
- Real Expected Goals (xG) data.
- Resting Days analysis (fatigue factors).
- A separate "Bookie Model" to detect where odds are drifting.
- An AI Decision Layer: A master algorithm that looks at all sub-models and decides which one has the highest probability for a specific game.
I was tempted to switch over soon. But with the current model hitting a 70% strike rate on 1X2 for two weeks in a row and finally finding profit, I cannot kill it yet.
The Decision: I will stick with the current "Market Master" model until the Premier League winter break. Let's see if this "old" engine has more fuel in the tank before we upgrade to the Ferrari.
🔍 Matchweek 17 Details
📊 Model: Week 17 (1u Flat)
| Model | Hitrate | Profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 70% | +4.94u | +49.4% |
| O/U | 50% | -1.90u | -19.0% |
| CS | 50% | N/A | N/A |
| TOT | +3.04u |
📈 History per Week
| Week | Games | 1X2% | 1X2 P/L | O/U% | O/U P/L | CS% | CS P/L | Total P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 10 | 50.0% | -0.96u | 50.0% | -1.06u | 0.0% | 0.00u | -2.02u |
| 14 | 10 | 40.0% | -2.91u | 70.0% | +2.52u | 10.0% | 0.00u | -0.39u |
| 15 | 10 | 50.0% | -1.23u | 40.0% | -3.59u | 0.0% | 0.00u | -4.82u |
| 16 | 10 | 70.0% | +3.53u | 50.0% | -1.40u | 0.0% | 0.00u | +2.13u |
| 17 | 10 | 70.0% | +4.94u | 50.0% | -1.90u | 50.0% | 0.00u | +3.04u |
| TOT | 50 | 56.0% | +3.37u | 52.0% | -5.43u | 12.0% | 0.00u | -2.06u |
🎓 Educational Corner: What is a "Good" Hitrate?
We hit 70% on 1X2 this week, and our overall season average is 56%. Is that good? Let's look at the industry benchmarks:
1. The 1X2 Model (3-Way Market)
- Random Chance: 33.3%
- Break-Even Point: Usually around 38-45% (depending on average odds of ~2.00 to ~2.50).
- "Good" Professional Model: Anything consistently above 50-52% is considered elite in a flat-stake system.
Our Model: We are sitting at 56%. To be clear: this is exceptional. Sustaining 55%+ over a full season is incredibly difficult. If we hold this, the model is a massive success.
2. The Over/Under Model (2-Way Market)
- Random Chance: 50%
- Break-Even Point: 52.4% (assuming standard -110 / 1.91 odds to cover the bookie's vig).
- "Good" Professional Model: You generally aim for 55% - 57% to generate long-term ROI.
Our Model: We are currently at 52%. This explains why the O/U P/L is slightly negative (-5.43u). We are hitting coin flips, but losing to the "vig" (juice). However, this week's 5/5 ticket selection suggests our filtering might be getting better than our raw raw predictions.
🎫 Ticket Overview (Week 17)
⚠️ 1X2 Ticket | Profit: €-0.81
| Match | Selection | Res | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth v Burnley | Home | Lost | ❌ |
| Brighton v Sunderland | Home | Lost | ❌ |
| Everton v Arsenal | Away | Won | ✅ |
| Tottenham v Liverpool | Away | Won | ✅ |
| Wolves v Brentford | Away | Won | ✅ |
| Aston Villa v Man United | Home | Won | ✅ |
✅ O/U Ticket | Profit: €+2.28
| Match | Selection | Res | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man City v West Ham | Over | Won | ✅ |
| Tottenham v Liverpool | Over | Won | ✅ |
| Aston Villa v Man United | Over | Won | ✅ |
| Newcastle v Chelsea | Over | Won | ✅ |
| Bournemouth v Burnley | Over | Lost | ❌ |
| Everton v Arsenal | Under | Won | ✅ |
✅ CS Ticket | Profit: €+52.17
| Match | Selection | Res | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man City v West Ham | 3-0 | Won | ✅ |
| Leeds v Crystal Palace | 1-1 | Lost | ❌ |
| Everton v Arsenal | 0-1 | Won | ✅ |
| Aston Villa v Man United | 2-1 | Won | ✅ |
💰 Financial Summary per Week
| Week | 1X2 P/L | O/U P/L | CS P/L | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | -2.20€ | -2.20€ | -1.10€ | -5.50€ |
| 14 | -2.20€ | -1.18€ | -1.10€ | -4.48€ |
| 15 | -2.20€ | -2.20€ | -1.10€ | -5.50€ |
| 16 | -2.20€ | -2.20€ | -1.10€ | -5.50€ |
| 17 | -0.81€ | +2.28€ | +52.17€ | +53.64€ |
| TOT | -9.61€ | -5.50€ | +47.77€ | +32.66€ |
💰 Total Weekly Net: €+53.64
📉 The Financial Reality: Patience vs. Variance
This table perfectly illustrates the high-variance strategy we are running with these tickets.
For the first four weeks (Weeks 13–16), we were in the "Valley of Death." We accumulated a total loss of -€20.98, hitting our stop-loss limit almost every single week.
The Psychological Challenge: It is mentally tough to see red week after red week. In a standard flat-betting model, a 4-week losing streak suggests the model is broken.
The Accumulator Reality: However, when playing high-odds tickets (parlays), this is the "cost of doing business." You pay a weekly premium waiting for the variance to swing your way.
And then, Week 17 happened. In a single weekend, we didn't just recover the €20.98 loss; we cleared it and added €32.66 in pure profit on top.
This confirms the hypothesis I started with: We are trading frequent small losses for infrequent but massive wins. The only surprise? It wasn't the "safe" 1X2 ticket that saved us—it was the high-risk Correct Score ticket.
Let's see if we can another green week and build a streak.
Cheers,
Peter