During the midweek, I did try lots of changes, but none of them were better for the current model for the 1X2 prediction. I did change something within the O/U module. Here, for the moment, I solely count on the poisson model. In the previous version the poisson model was also compared with the odds. And at the end the bookmaker more or less always did took over. That wasn't the idea of the model, because then I could just follow the bookmakers prediction.
I did some backtesting, at it seems to have improved the hitrate of the O/U predictions. But time will tell.
In the mean time, I am trying to build a complete hybrid model, which does spit out the predictions according to Poissong, xG, bookmakers, ML, etc... I will decided in which situations based on history which prediction has to be followed. But I only did start with the major overhaul. I do hope that I can finish this for this weekend.
So let's see what the model thinks about the upcoming matchday!
⚽ PL Matchweek 17 Prediction Report
Nice to see 2 draws. It is always hard to create a model which also does predict draws at a moderate rate. Or it predicts way too many draws on one side, or none at all at the other side.
Also interesting to see if he does predict the Brighton game correctly. And like each week, I doesn't think that the Wolves can add some extra points to the table.
When looking at the most interesting game of the round, it does think that Aston Villa will keep the 3 points at home. But Arsenal will also score the win, with the smallest victory possible.
🎟️ Recommended Tickets
As always the 1X2 and O/U tickets are parlays, consisting of 6 games, but I will only play the 4, 5 and 6 folds. Each line with a stake of 0.1 unit.
The CS ticket is a regular Yankee ticket.
1X2
Over Under 2.5 Goals
I did make some changes to the selection of the games for this ticket, but that had I a side effect I didn't forsee. I just asked the module to add the games to the ticket in which the model has the most confidence in. To bad, now also an odd of 1.36 was added.
Correct Score
Yes 
Like always, my bets have been placed, now it is up to the team to fulfil the prophecy.
Cheers,
Peter