Today marks five days until the start of the 2018 Six Nations! Here's the second edition of my Six Nations Preview Series running up to the start of the tournament.
This Edition - WALES
Hope you enjoy the read!
The Welsh grand slams of 2008 and 2012 seem like a distant memory. I'm not sure what's happened to Wales but when I think of an England vs Wales matchup I no longer feel a shiver run through my spine - Wales just aren't what they used to be and I don't think they'll have much to present us this Six Nations.
Warren Gatland isn't the most popular of Head Coaches and is always fond of making weird decisions that would go against the opinion of most. Have the Welsh lost confidence in Gatland? I think so. Will it cost them their chances in the tournament? Most probably.
Wales had a pretty 'par' Autumn Internationals Series, struggling to overcome Georgia and South Africa and getting beat quite convincingly by New Zealand and Australia. Scarlets have been impressing in the domestic matches and on the European Stage too, so we could see some re-ignited flair from the Scarlets' representatives in the Welsh squad.
The biggest strength of this Welsh side is undoubtedly their back-row, and it's a back-row to fear in this Six Nations. Even without the likes of Sam Warburton and Taulupe Faletau; recent Lions-capped Ross Moriarty and the experienced Justin Tipuric will be banging on Gatland's door begging to start, then add Scarlets' flanker James Davies (who has been a standout player in the Pro 14 this year) into the mix along with Josh Navidi (who somehow always turns up on the international stage but not as much domestically), Ellis Jenkins and Aaron Shingler and you have a back-row to contend with any.
There are also various standouts in the Midfield in Gloucester's in-form Owen Williams (who'll also add some key playmaking ability in the Welsh side), late bloomer Hadleigh Parkes and Scarlets' Scott Williams. I think it's fair to say that although maybe not big contenders for the title, they'll go out on to the pitch and play with tenacity and spark - giving their all for 80 minutes. Maybe if they're lucky they'll beat either Ireland or England, but on paper it'll be a tough ask.
The big weakness is that they don't really have an international level Fly-Half in their mix with Dan Biggar being ruled out for the first three matches, and Rhys Priestland for the whole tournament. Gareth Anscombe and Rhys Patchell seem to be the main players in contention, but Owen Williams could also easily fill the slot (although his skills are far more concentrated on either Full-Back or Centre and coming off the bench would provide an excelled 'Super-Sub' for Wales). Maybe this will work in their favour with little to no attention going towards Patchell or Anscombe, and it may possibly give them the scope to perform well in this year's tournament - no-one really knows!
The back three also looks relatively thin, especially with Liam Williams' injury ruling him out of the whole tournament. George North has only just got back from injury and being a late recall from play for Northampton in the Anglo-Welsh this weekend does not look promising at all. Wales will have to hope that Josh Adams (the Worcester Warriors stand-out) will be able to reproduce the performances he's been putting in in Aviva Premiership this year on the international stage - but I'm not too optimistic with what he'll be able to produce in that Wales shirt. Rhys Webb also adds to their injury dilemma and with matches against England and Ireland at Twickenham and the Aviva Stadium respectively, any contention they did have for the title has vanished.
Wales have home matches against Scotland, France and Italy and away games against Ireland and England. I think that Wales will be smashed by Ireland, beaten marginally by both Scotland and England, draw or struggle to beat France and then smash Italy. They'll probably slot in 4th behind Ireland/England/Scotland (in one combination or another) and home games against France and Italy will ensure their finishing position isn't worse.
If they do show up and outplay the potential I've given them, then they could finish 2nd; but any chances of a Six Nations grand slam let alone a title are definitely out of the picture in my opinion.
Feel free to give me your thoughts below!