Hello and welcome to my latest QTUM vs BTC -0.06% analysis on the daily log chart.
As you can see after our test of the 23.6% Fib level across 20th-23rd of April, we actually had a false breakout on the 24th. What you may have noticed is that there was no volume coinciding with the breakout which indicated it had a very good chance of failing. This is why I always reiterate the importance of waiting until we have a breakout WITH supporting volume in order for it to be a confirmed breakout.
Over the last few days we have been trading in between the 200 EMA which has provided resistance, and the 50 EMA which had been giving us some support until we opened just below it today. Despite the bearish nature of this cross back below the 50 EMA , our other indicators are actually looking decidedly bullish .
For example; we still have our cup and handle chart pattern forming for which I have added our target level if this completes. In addition (and at the same time); we also have the possibility of a bullish doji star candlestick pattern currently emerging (much like BTC/USD). Now, if this bullish doji star/cup and handle formation super-duo both complete by tomorrows close, then it is likely we will shoot up to the target area quiet violently. It is worth noting that further supporting the potential of the bullish doji star to complete; is the fact that we have been trending in an ascending wedge pattern which has been acting as support. Because the support of this wedge will be literally just below us if we open higher tomorrow than today’s opening; it’s highly likely that it and the 50 EMA will prop us up enough to complete the pattern.
BULLISH DOJI STAR PATTERN:
Looking at our other technical indicators; RSI is at the midway point indicating we have plenty of room for an uptrend to occur before going overbought. Aroon Up is well above 50 (88) and Aroon Down is at around 2.5%. This indicates that bulls have the edge here. The MACD is trending above the signal line, however there is virtually no momentum. This doesn’t give us any real indication of which way this will go, however like the RSI we have plenty of room here to build momentum to the upside before going oversold.
INDICATORS:
In summary I am bullish on this set up. I will be watching closely tomorrow to see if our emerging bullish doji completes, and if so I will have stepped targets building up to the cup and handle target (My targets are: 0.00240 which is about the 200 EMA level, 0.00266 which is level of previous resistance found on 27/02, 0.00275 which is just below the 38.2% fib; and the cup and handle target itself of 0.00285). If we do however happen to fall through the ascending triangles support, then we are dropping until we find our previous support at the green dashed line.
As always, DYOR and hold off from trading until we have confirmation with supporting volume (or trade now at your own risk - it's completely up to you!).
Cheers