I have been in the videoconferencing industry for a while now. Long ago, I predicted that something would happen in this area and that of the video: "Soon, every camera will have a camera." I said that he is ten years old, before the release of First iPhone, and people could not believe me. At the end of the day, I was wrong. My mistake was to believe it would happen in 10 years instead of 5.
Lately, I have made another reflection: flying cars - hybrid cars passing from the ground to the air - arrive, and soon. Considering the technologies already in use, the ongoing investments and the general passion for this innovation, I predict that we will see people using these boats in the next five years. When I wrote the first draft of this article a few weeks ago, I had noticed that it would happen in 5 to 10 years. Today I came across two articles considering it much closer than I had thought. One of the articles was about a German company that plans to put flying taxis on the market by 2019, the other presented a Slovak company that unveils its marketing design for a flying car in a congress in Monaco.
I think people will rethink at this time and remember the popular saying: "It will happen when the chickens have teeth" or "I will not be there to see it". I understand the general skepticism. Flying cars have been a popular science fiction concept for more than a century, with no significant advance to date - until recently.
Recent innovations make development possible
Over the past decade, small companies such as the great master of aerospace Airbus have begun to build prototypes. These efforts are circling around the globe, and include companies such as the American company Moller International, EHang in China, PAL-V in the Netherlands and AeroMobil in Slovakia. EHang has already partnered with Dubai to introduce flying cars in the country this summer. Larry Page, Google's co-founder, set up a flying car company and invested heavily in another.
"Oh, but planes are expensive when cars are not," you will say. Well, I can tell you that this is only the result of economies of scale. We do not manufacture as many planes as cars. But from an economic point of view the manufacture of flying cars, if we make as many as normal cars, could come back to the same. Electric cars become more common and cost-effective, with their batteries becoming lighter and cheaper, for example. If flying cars are as electric, and if they can take over the same technology, then that's what separates us from achieving economies of scale in this crucial area.
Another widespread concern: how will cars "see" each other?
There is already a detection technology, and computer programs that allow drones to communicate and avoid each other in such a way that humans can not even grasp it. We've seen a lot of drone demos in training, one of which, very noticeable, showing the Intel Shooting Star drone parading during Lady Gaga's performance at the SuperBowl. This is another example of powerful transmission technology. An autonomous or semi-autonomous flying car could even be safer than a driven car, if this eliminates the possibility of human error.
How will they travel, and where will they go?
Concerning the practical question of viability, one must include a principle of versatility. A flying car, and flying only, would not be practical. We need "multimode" cars that roll, and fly. How to reach an airstrip? By driving and then flying. How to get to the office from a landing point or heliport? Driving. Just as most birds can walk and fly, flying cars should be able to take you to a place of take-off by first using the land route.
This logically leads to traffic and safety issues.
Where are we going to steal and where are we going to land?
One of my friends works at Amazon. He does development for drones, and speaks of the highways for drones in these terms: zones delimited for the flight. Not above houses, but above lightly populated areas, to minimize the risk of accidents. We could establish different levels of drones, depending on the type of vehicle and its speed. A pizza delivery drone could fly low and slow, but another could spin at 160 km / h at 150 meters from the ground.
In the case where the vehicles are like hybrids resulting from a cross between aircraft and helicopter, perhaps we will not need tracks. The airstrips would be more like helisurfaces. If the aircraft are light, they could land safely on roofs.
Change travel habits
Thinking broadly of this innovation, even beyond practical concerns, could change the way we live. Flying cars could solve the urban transportation problem by allowing people to live far from their workplace.
For example, even if you can not afford to live in San Francisco, you may still be able to work. From San Jose to San Francisco there are about 88 km: two to three hours by car, without traffic jams. If I could get there by flying in 10 minutes, and it could be done at an affordable price, as in Uber, it would be a very attractive option.
Legislators should be ready now
Obviously, this "futuristic" technology is perhaps not far from reality. However, as with many technological developments, flying cars could arrive on the market before legislators are prepared. It took more than a decade for the Federal Aviation Administration to put in place rules for drones long after they had become common use. It could be the same with flying cars - but we should be able to avoid that. US agencies should seriously consider the development of rules for these new vehicles, which could become economic clutches for US companies. Other countries will define the market if the US fails to regulate this sector and help it take off (without a pun intended).
No matter how this innovation turns, it will certainly be interesting to see. I will observe. As my prediction for the cameras on each screen, I know it's only a matter of time - and I wonder if I will have hit the nail this time.