There are many users on Steemit who get frustrated at the sight of the same authors on the Trending List, day in, day out. Well, I think I have good reason to believe this won’t last. This post is going to explore the reasoning behind my belief, and predict what the future holds for the Curation Author List.
I feel it’s probably diligent for me to explain what I mean by the Race to the Bottom. Some of the following content comes from a previous post of mine (posted a few weeks ago), feel free to skip this, if you have read the original (skip to: Authors on ‘The List’ - Enjoy your success while it lasts…);
Curation Bots are at war. It's an interesting phenomenon to watch. For some time some Curation Bot's have been making spectacular returns, but that is about to come to an end.
The Original Curation Rewards Algorithm:
It was simple, the Earlier you vote, the higher the share of the Curation Rewards you received (it was still relative to your Voting Power just like today). This lead to some very successful Bot's instantly up-voting (a split second after posting) any content with certain tags, or by certain authors. Curation was simply a race to vote first.
The Curation Rewards Algorithm Today:
The Algorithm is just like before, however with the addition of a 30 minute window where, the earlier you vote, the higher the proportion of your curation reward goes to the Author. So, if you vote 1 second after a post (is posted) you will synthetically be giving ~99% of you curation reward to the author. This changes on a 'sliding scale' until, If you vote 1 second before the end of the 30 minute window, you will give the author ~1% of your Curation Rewards.
This Complicated Things.. Which was the point..
So, what time do the Bot's coders set their vote to come in.. 5mins? 10mins? 15mins? 20mins? 25mins? 30mins? There is a trade off whatever time they opt for. Too late, gives other users the time to up-vote before the Bot, and take more of the curation rewards. Too early, and the bot will be giving away too much of their curation reward to the Author. This was the aim of the developers, to even the playing field and give human users a chance against the bot’s.
Well, this is where Game Theory comes into play.
Let's talk about Steemit's favourite Bot.
When the Curation Algorithm changes came through,
Unfortunately for
So, they set up a bot to 'front run'
9mins/30mins = 0.166666
1-0.3 = 70%
Where does this end?
I've been a futures trader from 8 years, and I've had to change my trading strategy too many times to count. I’ve gone through 12month period of following a strategy which makes consistent money, but then, more users start to follow your lead, and eventually the ‘Edge’ is gone. The money disappears, and you have to change your trading strategy to continue to make money. There is a term;
Adapt or Die
This fit's the upcoming Curation shift nicely. If there is one thing I know about, it’s the life cycle of a market inefficiency. Here is how it goes. I see the Steemit Curation very similar to trading a Financial Market. There is money to be made by identifying inefficiencies (a post that should have more up-votes), however, it’s currently too easy. There is only a finite pool of funds that can go to this type of Curation Behaviour, and as number of users following the same strategy increases, the rewards for each user will tend to zero over time…
A Fast Buck Never Lasts
Now, this brings me onto further thoughts on this topic, and the impact this type of behaviour will have on the lucky Authors on the list.
Authors on ‘The List’ - Enjoy the success while it lasts…
Users who are lucky enough to be on the Curation Authors List, receive an upvote from certain bots, regardless of the content of they post. This has lead to many user feeling frustrated by the curation reward system.
The key point that has come to light for myself, is that, the curation ‘Race to the Bottom’ is only beneficial to Authors in the short term.
How are Authors Benefiting?
Bot’s are voting on content earlier and earlier. Asides from the Author rewards they receive from up-votes, authors are receiving a bigger percentage of the curation rewards. Some authors are receiving 80%+ of the Curation Rewards ‘Pot’. This is obviously great new for the authors, however I don’t believe this will last..
Why will this Diminish?
As curators returns continue to fall due to the ’Race to the Bottom’, it will get to a point where certain author are not worth losing Voting Power over. Curators will simply see value somewhere else, and move their votes accordingly. I believe this is already happening to a number of high profile authors, and I believe we will see this cycle repeated time and time again moving forward into the future. I would call it;
Steemit Author-Curation Boom and Bust
This is one of the prime reasons I would advised any frustrated Content Creators to keep going. Opportunities will arrise, there will be a changing of the guard, and if your in the right place at the right time, creating great content, you could be the beneficiary of this phenomena.
Thank you for reading, and as always I am interested to hear your thoughts. My post frequency will be falling to a reasonable level from here on out. I've had a little too much time on my hands over the past few days...