Welcome back to the Hive FPL.
It's Gameweek 13, no doubt unlucky for some but where will FPL managers be finding their points this weekend?
We come into the week off the back of a full schedule of European matches midweek while you can bet that Premier League managers will also have one eye on the GW14 which sees a full round of EPL matches from Tuesday to Thursday next week.
That kind of fixture congestion heading into what is always a busy period over Christmas and New Year will certainly see lots of chopping and changing. Now is definitely the time to ensure that you have a bit of depth to your FPL squad to make sure that you're not caught out in that regard.
Going straight into the GW13 fixtures these are the matches and players to target...
Somewhat inexplicably we also a Friday match and it's another South Coast derby (it feels like there's one every week at the moment!).
Brighton are absolutely flying at the moment and you'd back their players to get both attacking and defensive returns from this match against bottom of the league Southampton.
The Saints overall performances have improved in recent weeks but they are still being hurt by the number of individual errors which in this league rarely go unpunished.
Joao Pedro (FWD) marked his first start since GW3 with a goal and an assist against Bournemouth and looking at both this match and Brighton's next half-dozen or so games then you'd expect that he'll be adding to his tally soon. Home games against Brentford and Palace follow while all their away fixtures up until the end of December are against sides rooted firmly in the bottom half of the league.
As for the Saints, well you'd be a brave man to pick any of their players, none of whom have broken even the 30 point barrier in the FPL this season. Archer (FWD) with 28 points is there highest scorer but even he is 14 points off Palace's Henderson (GK) who is the highest scorer for the 2nd worse club in FPL terms this season. In other words, you could probably make a case for having a player from any Premier League club in your fantasy squad except Southampton.
When Brentford play at home, FPL managers sit up and take notice. They've scored 12 goals in their last 3 league fixtures at the GTech stadium and you'd fancy they might get a couple more against a struggling Leicester side.
It looks increasingly likely that Ruud Van Nistelroy will be the man who is taking over at Leicester. That would be a fairly bold appointment given his relative lack of experience in management and the likelihood that Leicester will be battling relegation this season. Whether the appointment is made in time for this match remains to be seen.
The hope for Leicester fans will be that big Ruud can unleash some of the attacking talent in this Leicester squad. Buonanotte (MID) had 5 goal involvements in his first 8 matches this season but has gone 4 games without making an impact. In that regard, while Brentford score a lot at home, they also concede a few too - 8 in their last 3 and no clean sheet at home since May.
Both these teams were involved in matches during GW12 that highlight just how tough it is to predict performances and results this season. Palace who have struggled to find the back of the net all season scored twice at Villa while Newcastle, looking to build on the momentum they seemed to have found, lost at home to West Ham.
Last week, I did pick out Sarr (MID) as a player who might benefit from the injury crisis to a few of Palace's stars and he didn't disappoint with a 12 point return. Can he keep that going against the Magpies?
Newcastle's loss against West Ham wasn't for lack of chances. Isak (FWD) xG 0.71 and Gordon (MID) xG 0.43 in that game will hope to do better this time around. Willock (MID) came off in the game against the Hammers with a slight knock and if he is unavailable then Barnes (MID) may come back in. The former Leicester man remains Newcastle's top point scorer in the FPL this season despite starting just 1 of the last 5 matches.
After a great start to the season, Forest's form seems to be slipping away with back to back defeats. Still, they and FPL managers who have banked on their players continuing to over perform will see the match against Ipswich as an opportunity to regain momentum and points.
That much is especically true of Wood (FWD) whose ownership has risen to 23.2% of teams at the time of writing. However, the big centre forward not only blanked against Newcastle and Arsenal, he didn't even get a sniff of a goal, registering precisely 0.00 xG in both games.
By contrast, Delap (FWD) in each of his last 2 games has recorded xG of 0.99. He scored against Spurs and but for a couple of brilliant saves by Onana would have continued that run against United. Given his price and burgeoning reputation you'd expect his ownership to rise beyond its current 4.8%.
I've made no secret of my admiration for Gary O'Neil as a coach so I'm happy to see Wolves begin to find their feet after a very difficult start. It's now 4 games unbeaten in the league with the 4-1 win at a well organised Fulham a bit of a surprise.
I've been highlighting the threat of the Wolves forward line all season and gradually teams are beginning to bring in one of either Cunha (FWD) or Strand-Larson (FWD) not just because they're scoring points now but also because they have a very appealing run of fixtures between now and the end of the year.
After great results against the likes of City and Arsenal, Bournemouth will be disappointed to have lost their last 2. They will be without Semenyo (MID) for this game due to suspension but Evanilson (FWD) is quietly establishing himself after his summer move. Only Haaland and Solanke, the man he replaced at the Vitality, have posed more of a goal threat over the past 3 game weeks than the Brazilian who blanked for the first time in 5 weeks in the defeat to Brighton.
West Ham will be very keen to build on their excellent win at St. James Park on Monday night with a massive home fixture against Arsenal. Really establishing the London Stadium as a fortress has always been an issue for the Hammers but they are unbeaten in their last 3 matches here (2 wins and a draw) and if they get something from this match then the home support might just begin to believe.
After a bit of a blip, Arsenal have begun to look dominant in their recent performances at home and abroad. Coming into an incredibly busy December where they play 7 matches in 24 days they will need that momentum to continue if they are to remain in the hunt for silverware.
Saka (MID) and Odegaard (MID) were particularly impressive in the win over Forest last week. The later's price has dropped £0.3 mil since the start of the season but with 2 assists in his last 2 starts then you'd expect that to rise quickly. If you want him in your squad it might be worth pulling the trigger now while he's still affordable!
Two sides that are currently moving in opposite directions meet on Sunday. While still being a long way from the finished article, Chelsea can at least claim to be one of the more consistent performers in a season marked by inconsistency and with the 2 teams above them in the table playing each other, the Blues could move to 2nd with a win.
By contrast, Villa haven't won in their last 4 Premier League matches or last 8 in all competitions! Watkins (FWD) is currently under-performing his xG for the season and has only picked up 2 assists, a massive decline in output against the 16 he record in 23/24. Equally, Villa have kept just 1 clean sheet all season (a very drab 0-0 against United) meaning that their defensive assets are now reliant on attacking returns to make them a worthwhile pick.
For Palmer (MID) who has blanked in his last 3, it's a case of whether FPL managers keep faith in the hope that another bumper points haul is just around the corner. He has 86 fantasy points this season but 42 of those came in 2 matches (Brighton and Wolves). That means that in the remaining 10 games he's averaging a shade over 4 points a match which is not good enough from a £10.9 mil player.
2 games and 2 very early goals from this new look United team although frailties at the back and in midfield persist. They'd really like another early goal against what will likely be a stubborn and defensively minded opponent in Everton.
The Toffees defenders are, as was the case last year, looking as likely as anyone to get you an elusive clean sheet bonus. They've not conceeded in the last 2 and in fact have 4 clean sheets in their last 6 EPL games, a massive improvement on the problems they experienced in the early part of the campaign. It's no great surprise that the uptick in performances has coincided with the return of Branthwaite (DEF) who has dropped £0.2 million from his price at the start of the season.
For United, defenders too feel like the best option for your fantasy team at least until the dust settles on their midfield and attacking options under the new manager. In fact, their highest point scorer to date is Onana (GK) who has come through a mixed first season to be the one player that United appear able to bank on.
Both teams were involved in shock results last weekend. Not many would have picked Spurs to win 4-0 at the Ethiad and you'd have gotten long odds on Fulham to have been beaten 4-1 at home to Wolves.
It feels likely to be one of those games where Fulham look to go back to basics and remain very compact at the back. We've seen already this season that Spurs have difficulties in winning these 'ugly' games. In fact, they've not won a match in the league this season by fewer than 3 goals demonstrating the massive ups and downs in performance that the side is showing from week to week.
Since opening his account for Spurs, Solanke (FWD) has recorded the 5th highest goal threat in the league but is currently under-performing his xG of 5.6 (he has 4 EPL goals this season). However, with Richarlison still out injured the former Bournemouth man is a near guaranteed starter during a period when we can expect a lot of squad rotation.
It seems strange to refer to this match as first vs second because City have been so awful over the last month that you wonder how they're still in touch with the leaders. A lot is made of the 5 defeats on the bounce that City suffered but actually when you go back prior to that, they haven't had a really convincing win since August. Great sides can win ugly but you can't play badly week in week out and expect to get the necessary results!
By contrast, Liverpool are flying. They weren't at their best against Southampton but their quality in the final third got them out of trouble before they dismantled Real Madrid in midweek.
The big concern for FPL managers will be the comments following last Sunday's victory by Salah (MID), the leading player in FPL 24/25, in regards his contract. At the moment, he appears very focused and motivated to the Liverpool cause but might that change, particularly if he ends up signing a pre-contract agreement to play elsewhere next season?
You'd be a brave man to back any of City's defenders at the moment. Even Gvardiol (DEF) who had a stellar start to the campaign has gone way off the boil in recent matches. He was directly at fault for 2 of Spurs goals and then culpable for another 2 scored by Feyenoord in midweek.
At the same time, you'd be equally brave to right off this City side particularly as an attacking force. They may not have been winning many recently but they are creating chances and if they get a break or 2 then the fortunes of players like Haaland (FWD) might soon change. He has only 2 goals in his last 7 appearances but has recorded xG of 6.11. He's too good to keep missing them...
