While I'm definitely not an economist nor an investment advisor (I'm a full time waiter, and *was* a licensed broker in the 1990s - a career I abandoned after 11 months, on principal, once I’d gotten more than a taste).
Anyways, I don't quite worry too much about dilution of the Steem market at this early point in the platform/currency, as so many seem to be on such a terror about right now (Aug 28, 2016).
I say this as someone who IS also buying now - albeit in meager amounts to start. By meager I mean that I first tested my technological prowess (thanks for the help JasonP!) by buying a tiny amount with my existing Bitcoin via Coinbase.com* Then two days ago, added $25 more to my coinbase, in order to make my Steem purchase when that transaction clears in a few days).
So enough about me, and onto the topic :
I’m extremely convinced that this platform will explode to millions of users within a couple of years, and then into tens of millions of users. Altho the price IS crashing now - Yes, the market seems “flooded” and “Steem is over-valued now, so we’re all doomed - DOOMED I TELL YA !!! - and all because of these reckless greedy founders…!!!” (I’'m being facetious ;) …
I’m actually arguing that in coming months the “demand” side of the Supply & Demand equation will kick into overdrive - and then into hyperdrive! - almost regardless of how carelessly or recklessly (in many ppl’s opinions, but not mine) this currently “over-valued” Steem is being “dumped” during this Beta period.
I won’t however argue or agree with the idea that “a lower price might interest new users and investors” ... (Note : this article started as a comment in reply to 
...because I believe that many (millions of?) new users will continue to come primarily for the free blog offered by Steemit that is AD-FREE - it’s a cheap (free now) web-hosting solution in many ways - one of the primary reasons I am here in fact - empowering low-income people globally to have their voice heard, and so long as that offer stands, the demand for the product will always exist.
What I don’t think people - i.e., most of us “armchair quarterback Steemer analysts” I mean - are putting into this equation yet however, is how the Steem reward for sign ups keeps dropping dramatically, and just what that means! I signed up and received $5 for free only only about ten days ago, and now it’s already just $3.
My theory is that eventually it may “only” be free to sign up pretty soon, once everybody’s heard about it, or perhaps once the Beta stage is complete, and they decide that they're "out of free money" to give away, and are "only" giving away a free blog (beginning at some future point anyways).
PART of the power of this platform is that within a couple of years (?) every high school and college kid in China and Uzbekistan is likely to have one of these accounts, and grandmothers everywhere are going to be wondering why their “babies” aren’t posting on Facebook much anymore.?
And FB reportedly has 2 Billion user, a great chunk of whom's eyeballs they are now in danger of losing.
Will Steemit be to Facebook what Facebook was to MySpace?
And with probable demand like I’m postulating here, should we really be all that worried about what the price is today, while still in Beta? Look at what happened to one man’s $27 in Bitcoin he totally FORGOT ABOUT for FOUR YEARS! (Link and below photo credit to www.TheGuardian.com)
Spolier Alert : it was worth $886,000 when he remembered he had it.
And that was at 2013's prices, less than half of today's ($575 at this writing.. He bought 5,000 of them for $27 originally.) Could Steem ever see a similar increase?
Such thinking is of course PURELY SPECULATIVE, but this actually does gets crazier people, as far as the future possible price of Steem goes. Consider this possibility "
After they’re done giving it away for free - or even before - Steemit could then possibly start (gasp!) charging for certain functionality - like hosting images (I LOVE the irony and the sheer business genius that Steemit is tapping FB and Reddit’s user base, but letting FB and Reddit pay for hosting so many of the images we see here, hahaha! Forget about how greedy you think these guys are, and just think about how smart these are for a second! ) ...
Or, Steemit could possibly introduce a small fee for hosting audio (mp3 files) for independent podcasters (like me - see like my high school friend who turned me on to Steemit) who want to upload videos FREE FROM the censorship of YouTube, who earns advertising revenues from corporate sponsors, while paying their content creators (the people who actually MAKE the videos Youtube profits from) in just micro-pennies for their work?
Now on Steemit!). Or full-on videos - for users (
SO JUST IMAGINE
...if they let the “value” of Steem drop to almost nothing while in Beta, but at some perhaps even pre-planned point decided to charge only $1 for a membership (you know, “to avoid abuse” / “to protect the community from spammers and anonymous criminals” / “to prove you’re not a fake account by tying your Steem to your real bank account, so our users can “conveniently” bypass Bitcoin, Coinbase, Blocktrades, etc")...?
And then just give you (maybe, maybe not) the equivalent of your sign up fee in Steem dollars? What if they decide to make it a mere $1 monthly recurring? Or $10 annually? I’d pay it for sure! What an incredible value for simple unknown bloggers and podcasters who want AD-FREE sites? Or at least, the paid(?) option to pick and choose YOUR OWN ADS, if your content proves in the long run to be able to attract them?
Very forward thinking, and maybe too rosy perhaps? But my larger point is that ANY amount of income - especially, especially, especially - recurring income (!) that Steem might be able to bring in in a year or five from now, will attract investors in a huge way, because the business model incorporates a proven stream of recurring income. How about $29, or $49 - $99 depending on what you want - annually, if you’re a business owner who wants a second account just for your business or organization once this takes off in the real world?
Okay maybe THAT’S a stretch, but maybe not.
My point is, there are so many ways that Steemit can eventually start making money in real income, effectively almost 100% ensuring that the value of Steem Dollars has absolutely NO possibility of EVER crashing to $0, because it will always be pegged to a low. Even if that low is only equivalent, at minimum, to the “price” of joining such a quality platform that is loaded with benefits, features, and most of all - value. Bitcoin, Etherium, etc, CAN crash to zero, because "all" they offer is a cyber-currency.
I'm arguing that Steemit offer SO MUCH MORE, and will almost ALWAYS have SOME inherent value, and therefore almost always be worth something.
STEEM dollars then - loosely speaking, and if and only if they always also have a blog (or more) attached to them - are actually more akin to wheat, oil, silver, gold, baseball cards or comic books, just for example(s), than they are like Bitcoins, or Wall Street Stocks for that matter.
So, am I a rosy-posey optimist about the possibilities of this platform?
Yes I am.
As I told my friend whom I just helped sign up last night :
"Joining Steemit now (and especially buying Steem Dollars) is like being the first person in your town to hear about Facebook (R), Bitcoin(R), and Wordpress(R) ALL AT THE SAME TIME, AND getting in on them before almost anyone else.
"You currently get a blog, a social network, and some crpto-currency all for free, and all without any - or at least most - of the downsides and drama involved with any of them." - Guy Malone
To me, that’s a winning product that can ONLY increase in overall average value, in the coming months and years.
To close, there is in fact lots and lots of criticism towards the “founders” of our Matrix currently... and the so-called whales... for "dumping so much Steem" and making money hand over fist right now. To that I say:
- I don’t blame them, they’ve certainly earned it. Anybody who is actually profiting from giving me (and the entire world) a free product, that’s both non-invasive and is selling out my personal, intimate details to advertisers, that also empowers me to earn money if I work hard - CAN and SHOULD make al the money they freaking want to, from doing all of this for little old me. God bless 'em and they're in my prayers.
- I ummmm, forgot number two. I might update this later, but I have to get ready to go wait tables right now.
So in closing (well, turned out not) I say that I actually HOPE the price of Steem drops to 10 cents, or even a penny in the next few weeks or months. And remember, that’s said as someone who just put real money - my hard earned US fiat currency - into this system.
Will I lose it if all these founders of ours actually don’t know *exactly* what they’re doing?
Could you?
Yes.
Do I care?
No.
Because even if the financial side busts entirely and permanently, I’m glad for the free platform (and will remain - again, as I said here) and frankly...
I already like my “friends” here better than any other social platform I'm currently on.
I’m getting BOTH tremendous value AND a truly once-in-ten-lifetimes-opportunity, by investing a small bit of time and money here now. (Well - lots more time than money, as anybody reading this today has already experienced yourself!)
But even if I only make ONE AMERICAN PENNY as blogger on Steemit and then nothing ever again, guess what?
That’s 1cent more than Tom or Mr Z ever gave me.
"Is Mark Zuckerberg the new Tom thanks to Steemit?"
In fact - altho I’m in credit card debt now and barely squeaking by in some ways - with my own article, I think I've just convinced myself to go find another $100 to put into Steem ASAP - and especially if/when the price drops to under 50 cents. Or even a penny.
To everyone really concerned about the price of Steem dropping I’ll simply say, have you never heard the phrase “Buy Low, Sell High?”
To whatever extent I’m able, I’m all in, and playing “the long game” with Steemit.
-g-
(DISCLAIMER : I am NOT an investment advisor, nor qualified to offer financial advice (I’m a full-time waiter by profession, an aging author, and a no-name podcaster). Past performance (even of Bitcoin, for example) is not indicative of future gains. Please consult a financial professional before making any decisions, as the information presented here is for for entertainment purposes.)*
AND for up-vote purposes. Show me some love below friends!
(*DISCLOSURE : IF you find this article helpful, yet are brand-spanking new to the digital economy and wondering how to buy, whom to trust, etc, integrity demands that I disclose to you that my link to Coinbase.com is an affiliate link which they offer to all members - meaning if you click it and spend $100, both you and I will get $10 extra in Bitcoin added to out accounts. They're quite popular tho, and I first purchased in January )
Copyright 2016 Guy Malone. All Rights Reserved.