Hello guys, so this is a post I wanted to put out there mainly to vent some of the thoughts I have had going through my head recently about the crypto market in general and how the future is going to pan out for HODLers in my view. So here we go...
The bubble is popping and we can all see it but refuse to believe it. Ignorance is bliss, although being ignorant and HODLing things of no real world value is not a good investing decision. Bitcoin will certainly never hit $20,000 again and most likely overall will just go down and down.
People don't like to look at this chart but it is true, because it is basic human nature and this hasn't really changed much over thousands of years.
If you look at the dot-com bubble (the nasdaq composite), it took 6 years to really start going up for the longer-term again after the crash, and why did it go back up eventually? Well because it is a composite of stocks of real companies who provide real products and services. Cryptocurrencies don't provide anything because they aren't used as currencies like they are supposed to be. The vast vast majority of daily volume is trading/investing for fiat profits, not for buying goods with as a currency.
You may say well OK, the price can go back up because people believe the price will go back up and so they will buy at higher and higher prices. The main problem is that after such an insane rise and fall, human nature is to be more emotional when price goes down, than up, and the recent crash just exacerbates these fears. As we have seen recently, when Bitcoin does go up a significant amount, the price gains are destroyed very quickly and there is just really no confidence in the crypto market anymore if we are honest with ourselves.
This obviously isn't good for Steemit either and if I am being brutally honest I expect the platform to die out in the near future with all other crypto projects. I hope it doesn't, but it just seems so blatantly obvious that the hype is over for cryptos, and when Bitcoin price goes down, so does the price of Steem. At current Steem prices barely anyone can make a living off of the rewards on here and so it is not really worth the effort unless you just enjoy writing about your interests as I do.
Another thing I have been thinking about is how people love citing the previous crashes in Bitcoin price, but they were really irrelevant in my opinion because no one really knew about cryptos then. Now everyone and their dog has bought crypto, and many have lost a ton of money because of it. How do you push up the price of something which is purely speculative, when so many people have lost so much money investing in them in the past... Where is the money coming from to push prices back up?
Some will say well when it is adopted prices will go up because of that. I have no idea why people think that honestly, it seems painfully obvious to me that the blockchain technology behind the cryptos will be adopted, but there is no chance companies will buy into cryptocurrencies that are $12,000 one day and then $8,000 a few weeks later, it is just a horrible, super high-risk financial decision to buy into something so volatile.
Anyway, we will just have to see what happens, but overall it is my belief that HODLers are going to be sorely hurt financially in the not-too-distance future. If you have learned a lot of Technical Analysis, and Fundamental Analysis to try and improve your crypto trading/investing, then great, you can transfer them skills to trading/investing in real markets like the stock market and the forex markets. Of course, the main problem with trading them markets after trading cryptos is that they are very, very slow in comparison, but that's life, you do the right thing the right way or you don't get the rewards!
Vent over lol.
Legal Disclaimer: This is just my thoughts and opinions and not in anyway a call for people to sell all their cryptocurrency. Invest your money how you see fit after doing as much research as possible.