In this post I will try to show my own position on future risks of industry and tell about possible scenarios on market during the next 1-2 years. Please note, that its just my own position, and I am open for conversation and ready to hear constructive criticism. Moreover I am native Russian speaker, and Steemit for me is another one way to practice in English, so you are wellcome with grammar remarks.
1
Closely looking for the industry last half-year, I am absolutely convinced now, that Blockchain hype is on the end. Some of my friends, who also closely involved in industry as a developers, entrepreneurs or somehow else, thinking that the "gold time" is just starting. But I don't understand how do they see this "show must go on"?
Let's look on Coinmarketcap or any other web-site, where all cryptocoins are presented in huge catalogue. Yes, we could find there more than 700 cryptocurrencies. And its absolutely clear for most of people in industry, that hugely part of this coins is nothing but candy wrappers. And each day quantity of this wrappers exponentially grows. In this point we should note, that each coin, listed on exchanges or successfully closed ICO, absorbs some amount of Bitcoins. During the ICO or just for support liquidity on exchanges. So while new altcoins born and burn we are getting a lot of temporary frozen bitcoins.
Its well seen from this chart from Coinmarketcap: http://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
By the way most of this crypto-wrappers are absolutely unuseful not only IRL, but nowhere at all. As it seen upon chart upside, total market capitalization growing up, but bitcoin cap is going down from the end of 2015. This may allow us to predict next big price bubble not on bitcoin, but on altcoins. Moreover, before mysterious tothemoon on bitcoin, we'll see a few altcoin dramas. And I think its would be more expensive and hard for all industry than The DAO hack.
I could discuss altcoins a lot of time, but lets switch on topic "Banks and Blockchain" or "Banksters and our lovely distributed ledger" as you wish.
2
All of us remember the news headlines about "BNY starts to develop own cryptocurrency", "JP Morgan is to develop own blockchain-system", "Another One Bank joined to R3CEV"....etc.
So, what? All I heard from guys who works in banks about blockchain its "blablabla". But sometimes, after one-another pint of beer, they told me one and all about private Data Base, which distributed between several bank departments. Ok...maybe several departments in different countries. It does not matter. For example in Goldman Sachs they really have kind of Blockchain. Yes, they use it like additional layer for store some transaction information.
And do you know how BNY Mellon explored blockchain technology after first news in early 2015? Ok, i'll tell you. From 6 to 12 months they just played with own Bitcoin fork. But each newsoutlet made publications on it with gorgeous headlines about EXPERIMENTS with BLOCKCHAIN. Awesome, lol.
By the way it's not about stupid banksters. This guys (i mean banksters) they like pigs in search of truffle, jealous and higly motivated. All this story about banks fail in blockchain is just about misunderstanding of technology. Blockchain (specially private blockchain) for now not applicable for banks. Its slow, huge, expensive and can't solve problems of traditional finance institutions. Its not a magic tool or killer app. So, lets forget about blockchain and banks.
The only one thing really have great potential and could solve the financial infrastructure problem - Bitcoin. Maybe the key for industry is in bitcoin and newly banking approach synergy. So, we'll see.