Do not get me wrong something very similar to steem(it) will be the next big thing in social media (Hopefully Steemit itself will make the required changes). BUT with the current design/ in the current state Steem has now ways to go but down. Down in price, down in adoption, down the drain.
There many things than need to be fixed, fine-tuned etc with Steem. Maybe I will write about them sometime later on, but the big ,should I say enormous flow, going well above all else is:
There is no reason, no logical, making financial sense right now to buy Steem!
I know the usual, blank answer – “People will buy to have more curation power.”
And near here lies the great problem. It is a dream, a hope with no logical justification. The matter of fact is the current steem design buying steem to power up to curate makes no financial sense!
To make $1000 a week in curation rewards one must invest 570,000 USD!!! And this is the current rate (with the big inflation/bonuses)… The situation looks even more ridiculous when when we get to the ‘normal’ 10% inflation of steem…and a meager 2.5% average curation reward .
I hear someone is saying – “people will buy smaller amounts also”…. Let me tell you about the small accounts math also – to get $1 a day in curation rewards, at 1.5 USD/Steem, you must buy $7,800 worth of Steem.
Intrigued. Do you think it is the greatest way to spend eight thousand bucks? LOL .
So to get back on topic,
Who is/will be buying Steem
Definitely not the writers – the few chosen to get the big bucks, are getting their pay, cashing out what they are allowed and ‘investing’ in SP what they are forced to invest.
The users that enjoy ‘the excellently curated content on Steem it’? No they have their free, 3 steem powerd up account.
The should be curators? – Well above is explained why this is a suckers bet. Do not get me wrong, I am fully aware that a lot of them are doing just that right now – buying steem and vesting’, but those are just the masses, the 95% making the wrong move, the one from whom the money are extracted.
The only one left are speculators – speculators speculating that someone in the future, for no logical reason will come and buy their steem for more than what they paid for it… Excellent strategy!
So, why the topic of the post?
In this so described above world a player was left out. The whale that got early or was close enough to the creators/founders of Steem(it). They got their Steem for virtually nothing, but being at the right place at the right time… 99% of them are not just lucky, they put/or reaffirmed themselves when they saw the potential opportunity. That is to say they are mostly aware of all the facts explained above. They know where the price is headed so they (although somewhat cautiously as of yet) sell their steem. I even think there are somewhat doubting themselves right now and think there might be hope for price hike. But at least they hedge their bets and sell…. Sell like crazy by non-whales’ standards.
The trend will just get stronger. There is no one (virtually or for solid reason) and a ton of acquired for ‘free’ steem coming in to the market every day…and more and more so.
PS
Min. target is $0.30 /Steem (as of the time when Steem has 200Mil supply[1])
Reasonable target is $0.15 /Steem (as of the time when Steem has 200Mil supply)
[1] current Steem supply is about 137 Mil