The US dollar is trading near seven week highs as economic data has been solid, the central bank is still pushing for a third rate hike and the tax reform proposal is moving forward. Leading manufacturing and non manufacturing indicators have improved and rising exports have shrunk the trade deficit to a yearly low but questions remain on the effect the tropical storms will have on the biggest economic indicator in the market.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the non farm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, October 6 at 8:30 am EDT. The economy is forecasted to have added 82,000 positions in September. The impact of hurricanes Harvey and Irma is to blame for the underperformance but given the resilience of the economy the possibility of the final figure beating expectations is not far fetched.
The ADP private payrolls report came in close to the forecast with 135,000 jobs and unemployment claims rose by 260,000 when a 266,000 gain was anticipated. Fed FOMC voting members were in full force this week and today’s comments from Philadelphia Fed chief Patrick Harker that while the 2 percent inflation target will remain untouched he still believes there should be another rate hike. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 86.7 percent probability of the interest rate moving higher to a 125 to 150 basis points range.
Source: OANDA