The betting market is cracking again, while people are betting their last dimes, that this will be an easy win for England. I still don't understand why. If Sweden would have scored when they have the chance in the quarterfinals, maybe England wouldn't even be here today. Anyways there are a few more hours to the game and these are my expectations...
CROATIA:
They have proven themselves time and time again that they are playing like a team and they would live and die for each other. Just like England, they have a lot of talented individuals and they will score today for sure. They've been in situations that they needed to bounce back and they did, so I don't expect them to give up like Sweden did, if it happens that they're trailing behind. Croatia is not an underdog and they've beaten Russia and Denmark to get here, a lot harder opposition, then England
ENGLAND:
They've managed to get this far but is this the year that they will go all the way. I don't think so. They've shown that they can score I'll give them that and yes, maybe I've underestimated them, but I don't believe they have, what it takes to win the World Cup. In my opinion, this one will end 1-1 or 2-2 and they will lose again. Their defense is still not convincing enough and Croatia will have many opportunities to shock them with their quick counterattacks. If they get that leading goal, expect their defense to get pounded until they let one in. England is far from being a favorite here, maybe this is a 50-50 game, but that's about it.
PICK: OVER 2 GOALS (PINNACLE SPORTS - ODD: @2.09/+109)
PICK: CROATIA +0.5 (PINNACLE SPORTS - ODD: @1.72/-139)
PICK: CROATIA TO ADVANCE (PINNACLE SPORTS - ODD: @2.48/+148)
I have 3 picks here on this one, it's just ridiculous how much credit England is given here. Maybe it's how the market reacts to wagering that England will go all the way, but like I said before, there is no way that England is a favorite here. In my opinion, the odds are more in Croatia's favor, but I will not take the straight win on them since I do believe we will see extra time here.
Firstly I have to take the over 2 goals here since both teams will score tonight for sure. There's not much chance that one team scores here and defends the 1-0 lead like France did against Belgium.
Second, the chance that one of the teams qualify is about 50-50, so why have almost @2.50 on Croatia then? Something doesn't make sense here, I think this is just one of the bookie tricks since probably 70 % of the market is on England today. And since I believe this one will go to overtime I have to take the +0.5 handi. This might look foolish but the bets themselves, aren't connected to each other that much.