Hi. everyone I figured this was worthy of an announcement since it affects the entire FX market.
Although the DXY remains below the 97.70 channel bottom from 2011, Thursday's session was the first daily close above the 2025 trend line. The DXY has traded below this trend line all year on a daily closing basis, until Thursday's close.
F
However, this does not mean it's automatically bullish. 97.70 is still the area that bulls need to reclaim for the DXY to have a chance at higher levels. Until then, expect more ranging.
Thursday's close above the 2025 trend line also provides a potential trigger in the event we see the DXY turn lower. If the DXY closes a day back below that trend line, it could trigger the next leg lower, so keep an eye on it either way.
Bottom line: Thursday's close was significant in that it's the first daily close above the 2025 trend line, but dollar bulls still have work to do at 97.70.
Do I dare?
Interestingly, if you treat this as a double top, the projected target is almost exactly 6,128, which is also a SSSP.
Either way, I'll have to wait for a retest. I probably won't do anything here until Friday morning EST at the earliest (if I do anything at all). Keep it on your radar.
Some context for the S&P chart above. It's at channel resistance, so it's not unreasonable to suspect a pullback.
Didn't think the DXY would go straight up at the open. Thank you Trump. 🫡 lol
On a serious note, we still need a sustained break above 97.70 on the high time frames. Daily and weekly time frames.
