Hello Steemians,
When I checked my crypto portfolio yesterday, it was in the red for the first time ever. Not a single coin was in the green. The initial “Sell it all” distaste I had to this was short lived. Why? Before I explain, here are my key points:
- From June 14th to yesterday my portfolio was down ~25%
- I currently hold ETH, GNT, REP, STEEM & BTC (in that order from most to least as an FYI)
- ICOs have caused a panic on two fronts….fear of future technical failures; fear of scam being raised.
- Flash crashes have exposed crypto trading flaws, furthering the panic.
- Whether you knew it or not, this unpredictability is inherent in crypto.
- Lastly, hopefully you’ve found some good deals recently (instead of running from Crashzilla)
Now true to my now preferred form, onto the supporting ramblings:
At the time of this writing, I’ve actually recovered from that 25% dip in the portfolio. But I’m still in the read on all of my coins. What makes matters worse, is that I’ve actually been buying at prices near their most recent floor, so my bet is that there are many of you out there with an even worse current state.
Due to being on vacation, I haven’t put in the time to do the stochastic analysis like I usually do (https://steemit.com/stochastic/@kaje77/weighted-stochastic-use-case-4th-analysis-getting-interesting). But you know what? I don’t need to do it. If there is ever a buy signal it would be “All your coins are near the price that you originally bought them for” – so it’s a good time for to buy up at your current diversification ratios (boy do I still need to do a piece on that), and if you have the time look for some steals.
So what’s up with the market drop?
As I mentioned in my last post (https://steemit.com/civic/@kaje77/my-recent-civic-and-augur-rookie-stumbling-blocks) the Status and Civic ICOs put so much traffic backlog on Ethereum transactions that it felt like it had ground to a halt…..does that sound like a scale-able solution of the future? But I digress.
So if you do not understand what’s happening, and have fear that your hard earned money simply disappeared, your instinct is to pull all your money out. I took a look at a series of Jaxx and ShapeShift comments placed in their open support log. I’d say a good 90% of them were simple panic due to a lack of understanding of why things were moving so slow and the accusation of ICO scams.
It makes me wonder what percentage of those in the crypto world really understand what they are “investing” in, versus those that come at it with some financial background or competence. The extreme volatility makes me think it’s a good portion of the former, and a little less of the latter.
When it comes to ICO’s on the amount of money they bring in versus what’s necessary to fund a team of 12? It certainly feels like we’re dealing with individuals that are indeed trying their best to create a better future, but at the same time know that they can shrug their shoulders and cash out as millionaires multiple times over. Not a bad gig…..maybe I should join one of them…..
Now, the ETH Flash crash. If the transaction latency wasn’t enough, what happens when a single individual cashes out millions of dollars’ worth of ETH at one time? A crash of ETH value from $320 down to 10 cents.
I’ve been considering adopting a bot approach to set up actions like calls and stop loss orders, but currently glad I didn’t. This crash caused on told amounts of these orders to take place…..but I may just wait until a system of ‘slow withdrawal’ is enacted to prevent this issue from happening in the future. Sometimes regulations aren’t so bad.
This version of the market crash has been an interesting ride for me to whether due to a wider range of a coin portfolio, and an attempt to partake in my first ICO. EOS was going to be my second, but I’m letting it play out a bit before I decide on my strategy and how much I’ll invest. At this point there’s a good chance I’ll hold off until after the ICO closes.
Much luck to all out there, but when dealing with a volatile world like this….have a long view, look for deals when everyone else is screaming and running from the latest Crashzilla, and don’t invest any more than you’re comfortable loosing.