The longest war in American history is the current war being fought in Afghanistan. Having spent plenty of time in country, and knowing that the current administration is planning to continue a presence in country, I thought maybe now would be a good time to jot down some thoughts.
Thought #1. It appears as though anywhere from 4k to 20k additional troops will be headed to Afghanistan in the very near future.
My recommendation: 4K troops being sent to Afghanistan will be doing useful work to help prevent the collapse of Kabul and to show the Afghans that they still have US support. It should be a starting point, not a stop gap. A number as small as 4k does help Afghanistan's key epicenter being Kabul, in the short term. Of note, I stress "short term." More does not mean better outcome. I would be happy seeing anywhere between 6-10k troops in country, 90% never staying inside the wire which is complete opposite of what has happened in the past being the vast majority of troops in Afghanistan never step outside the wire.
Thought #2. Mass troops may not and likely are not the answer to Afghanistan.
My recommendation: More needs to be done in Afghanistan but "more" will likely not be tied to regular/conventional or even unconventional troops. The additional work that needs to take place will/should be done in the shadows via covert operations by covert operators ak civilians without any media reporting. However, the US public will eventually get to see what is taking place but not in real time for operational security reasons as well as names, identities and organization will never be revealed to the public. Fight terror with terror or think on the lines of Africa when Executive Outcomes played but with a bit more oversight.
Thought #3. PSYOPS Must Be Enhanced
My recommendations: One example of what needs to happen, and I believe will, is an effective information campaign and the dispelling of disinformation from the plethora of armed anti-government groups. An example of the information operations can be seen earlier this month when every Afghan was buzzing around the audio of Siraj Haqqani when he denied involvement in the Kabul bombing. That is a disinformation operation. What it tells us is that that Saraj Haqanni and his handlers don’t want to be blamed for the bombing but it doesn’t mean they didn’t do it. And, it is a message the US and the coalition needs to capitalize with sound PSYOPs.
Thought #4. Bombings in and around Kabul are becoming more common.
My Recommendation: The bomb in Kabul was large, indiscriminate and went off in an area that touched Afghans from every walk of life. It created more problems than it was intended to solve and this is the reason for the denial of disinformation. If Kabul cannot be truly secured, Afghanistan is without a doubt, completely lost. (and yes, Afghanistan is already pretty much lost but if their was just one iota of a possibility to save face there, without Kabul, that ounce of face saving is completely and forever gone.)
Thought #5. The Afghan Intelligence Service (NDS) needs complete reform.
My recommendation: Currently there is a dangerous game of cat and mouse between the Taliban, the Haqanni, and their backers. To stay ahead of these threats requires strong intelligence capabilities. There is an urgent need of reform and increased efficiency in the Afghan Intelligence services (NDS). The US needs to mentor and improve the NDS while improving their own effectiveness in Afghanistan and Pakistan. If Pakistan is not addressed in conjunction with Afghanistan, there won’t be a lasting solution.
Thought #6. Pressure Pakistan
My recommendation: The Haqanni are a good illustration of Pakistan’s involvement in destabilizing Afghanistan. The Haqanni network is backed by at least a part of the ISI, if not completely by ISI, (Pakistan Intelligence Service) and has a close relationship with the Taliban and an operational relationship with Al Qaeda and likely today with ISIS. Rest assured the same groups that plan attacks against western interests in Afghanistan are the same or affiliated with the persons planning the attacks in Western Europe. Like our alphabet soup of intelligence agencies, there is an alphabet soup of jihadi groups (LET, LEJ, ect.) in Pakistan that are told to go to Afghanistan and “play ball” with the Americans. Any solution to the violence in Afghanistan will involve a robust Pakistan component.
Thought #7. US Intelligence Must Be Enhanced with HUMINT
My recommendation: Our CIA has relied primarily on liaison relationships with the ISI for their human intelligence. They (CIA) banked on the political process that the ISI would persuade the Taliban to behave. This puts the US at a distinct disadvantage because the ISI is promising to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table while feeding them and never even sending an invitation. When we do not rely on ISI, we rely on Technical Intelligence which is often flawed lacking social and cultural knowledge and used primarily for targeting operations when today, more then ever, we need to implement shaping operations all over again like we did in the early days of the war back in 2001 prior to big Army coming into the game.
Re-read the last. Yes, what I am saying is that if we want to truly win (whatever that entails) we will likely need to start all over again. We will need to implement shaping operations, build our own human intelligence networks without dependency on other host nation intelligence like the NDS or ISI. We will need real no shit PSYOPs as well as a contingency of non uniformed covert operators taking risks every single day outside the wire alongside local Afghans who not only continue Village Security Operations (defensive in nature) but also offensive operations hitting key targets. But, none of this can be done without addressing Pakistan and ironically, Iran on the east of the country.
My overall assessment of Afghanistan is that it is lost however, their is a small window of opportunity that will likely close very soon. With that opportunity open, a task and purpose which states what "winning" will mean in Afghanistan needs to be addressed, and, once it is addressed in writing, pieces of the puzzle can be put on the board and moved with a purpose.
Of note, Afghanistan and Pakistan are two countries full of amazingly beautiful people. It is the people who are paying the price of what could be considered the highest form of political corruption within both nations as well as the United States of America. With that, I wish nothing but peace in the region and pray all three nations can come together, eliminate the corruption and double play each constantly do to one another, and fight as one team against those whom wish nothing more than to cause harm to the innocents living in the region.
War is hell.