Good morning guys,
I have taken a short position on the Kiwi/Franc.
Tonight at 22:00 (GMT+1; London) we will see the release of the Interest rate decision from the Royal Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). There is widespread all-but-certainty that this rate will sit static at 1.75% due to to soft economic growth amidst debated inflationary pressures. It has been whispered that depreciation is key to economic growth domestically within the country.
Data aside, the Kiwi moved north in a bullish channel on the weekly chart (with some false breaks on the daily timeframe). This channel has now been blatantly broken to the downside- as has support from within the channel, at which point we are now testing as resistance. This move has formed a bearish 5-O, which would come in successful should it follow a bearish decision. Remember, the consensus of 1.75% has already been priced into the market. The market will flow naturally from here-on, unless consensus is not met. I do not normally enter before a decision is made, however, this set up will only turn aggressively bullish should the rate be risen.
Furthermore: please see the same chart over the longer period, highlighting where price has either consolidated around or bounced form the support/resistance zone. I expect today to be no different.
My original publishing of this idea can be found at https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDCHF/9KNHKkFV-NZDCHF-Short/