I posted this article in the new anarchy-community 
Reality is what we think it is 🤔?
We had the topic a while ago. Perception is based on illusion. It has to, because you as a living system are operationally closed and only open for energy exchange. What you see is determined by your believe and your believe is hard-wired or learned which is the same.
Amazing proof of this hypothesis are different views on the same picture. Some people see the dress in blue and black and some in white and gold. Sometimes you can change what your brain tells you:
Grey and White?
[Place a finger in the middle of the cube and see that the white disappears 😉]
We all know the dress which has splitt the internet community
[ask your wife or husband or friend or kids, some will see a completely different picture than you]
Put in the comments which color has the dress?
Now which color has this shoe? comment bellow
[This question is not a joke, there are many people seeing a different set of colors than you]
The MCGurk Effect
Even what you hear is only an illusion by your brain. The best fitting fantasy at hand. A proof in this short clip. The audio is the same, a man saying "ba ba ba", but when you change the visual input you hear something different:
Now you really think that your political opinion (based on what you think reality looks like) is right? Chances are good that we are all highly flawed. Forcing our distorted world view on others will inevitably lead to conflicts.
The Virus 🧟♀️ 🧟♂️
A small riddle in the beginning
imagine an insane scientist cultivating some zombie bacteria on a Petri-dish. The bacteria cant die and replicate once every minute and have everything they need. He injects the bacteria at 12:00 in the night and one hour later at 01:00 o´clock the petri-dish is 100% fully covered of bacteria. When was the petri-dish 50% covered?
[the solution is in the introduction]
Introduction 👇
>>Catastrophes<< in the scientific sense is every event where a system abruptly changes its dynamics. There are catastrophes in everyday life and they often are associated with the popping of some sort of bubble, with crashing. When you are pregnant and your water breaks. Does it matter whether it is the stairs or a wrong movement? No it would have broke anyways, it has matured towards a state of high instability - this is why things crash.
When "green" politics does not allow the burning of trees on a regular base, like we see small natural bush-fires on a regular base, then it comes to an accumulation of inflammable material right? So the whole systems invites a mega-fire. It becomes more and more fragile. Leave your tinfoil head where it is, because it does not matter if it is a planned attack or a light stroke or what ever, the system is prone to crash anyways.
Same goes for dept, when you allow Zombie banks which are technically bankrupt to continue doing business, or when we save old people from dying by established epidemics like influenza (our medical system prevents people from dying!), then guess what...inflammable material accumulates.
Fragility 🍹
- Of course the next bush-fire will be a MEGA-fire,
- of course the next financial crash will be a MEGA-crash
- of course the next virus-epidemic will be a MEGA-epidemic aka. pandemic
This is what Risk-experts like Nassim Taleb are warning about all the time since 2007. But politicians do not listen. Btw. the perti-dish was half covered at 12:59 and it took only one minute to go from 50% to 100%. This is the power of exponential growth.
So who cares if there are "only" 100 incidences, when the next exponential iteration step is 10,000? It is dumb to think in absolute numbers - one of the common human fallacies. But still the virus is no medical problem for healthy persons, it is highly distorted by our good medical system. Like the bush-fire was distorted by the "good" environmental practice beforehand. It is a socio-economic problem and the only vaccine here is to be free and have no debt 💉.
Start to think around all possible corners
[in Markets the opposite happens of what people intend]
Now often, especially in markets people have a distorted world view. They think everything is controlled and the market falls because some one sells positions ... In the crash in 2018 it were people who went >>long<< causing the crash - they though that they know bitcoin will go up and leveraged their positions, it went down and they blew up. On the other hand when short positions get liquidated, people who bet on BTC going down, have to >>buy<< the position. They don´t buy BTC because they think it is a great asset to hodl to.
YouTubers make money addressing straight thinking
Youtubers changing their sentiment every 2 days, bullish - when it went up, and bearish - when it went down. It has nothing to do with market sentiments.
[yeah right...]
what I want to say is that dynamical systems are highly confusing, you cant just look at it and thing "ohh only 100 cases --> so it is not dangerous", "ohh the price went up --> so people are positive", ... "oh now it crashed --> so an Illuminati was selling"...this is not how reality works. This is how populism and conspiracy works. Of course, some powerful people are in the position to pop bubbles. Easy, but bubbles are determined to pop anyways.
not every increase in price is a bull-phase and front running the halving can be attempted but will never succeed. An efficient system does not front-run the actual trajectory otherwise it would not be efficient. Even though we see those shoot-ups, there is always the natural tendency for those small bubbles to pop. This is where swing traders make huge piles of money.
Second-Order Thinkers
I personaly cant predict anything. I just can grab the falling knife and buy more token. I still thing that Dollar Cost Averaging is a dumb think to do, because you buy 2x more coins in more over valued periods than in less over valued periods.
There are many names for thinking around corners. "System 2 thinking", "thinking fast vs. thinking slow" or "second order thinking". I often cant think around corners, I get emotional, especially when I´m stressed but I know that my thinking is full of flaws.
STEEM is not crashed 14%, it is simply in a less overvalued position. All coins are still overvalued compared to their actual use. Price =/= value.
always remember: fair market-cap = number of active unique users².