I looked at the chart of US employment to population.
It appears the fair value of Dow jones should be close to 2000.
During the great depression the stock market crashed 85% from a peak of 5375 to a trough of 770.
(Source: http://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart)
Possibly the history rhymes with the current environment?