SPS closed the week at $0.00640876, down 3.66% from the Dec 5 open at $0.00652717. Another slow grind lower that's been playing out for months. The range between $0.00630 support and $0.00660 resistance is tightening week after week, and the chart structure is screaming that something has to break soon. We're watching a textbook descending triangle form in real-time.
Here's what the chart is actually telling us.
Support at $0.00630 is still holding, but it's under increasing pressure. Price has touched this level multiple times over the past three weeks, and each time buyers have stepped in to defend it. But the bounces are getting weaker. Resistance at $0.00660-$0.00662 remains rock solid. This horizontal ceiling has capped every rally since late November, and this week was no different. The price compression is getting extreme. Look at the 1-hour chart. Lower highs. Flat support. Falling volume. This is a descending triangle, and those patterns typically break to the downside unless there's a catalyst to flip the structure.
Daily volume this week ranged from $20k to $24k. Low-volume consolidation in a downtrend usually means sellers are just waiting for the next leg lower i.e., there's no accumulation happening here. Market cap declined from $3.26M to $3.21M over the week, which is a 1.5% drop. Volume relative to market cap is still around 0.6-0.8%, which reinforces how illiquid and slow-moving this token is.
Macro context matters here.
Bitcoin slipped below $92k this week, and ETH is sitting at $3.2K. Both are climbing modestly off intraday lows after falling more than 10% earlier in the week. BTC has now posted losses in five of the last six weeks, and ETH can't regain any early-Q4 momentum. The Fed cut rates again this week amid weakening labor data, which was expected, but it did nothing to stabilize crypto. Analysts are pointing out that BTC broke below its weekly 50MA, a level that historically holds during bull markets, which raises the probability of a deeper mean reversion toward longer-term supports.
Regulatory developments brought some positives. The CFTC formally launched a pilot program allowing BTC, ETH, and USDC to serve as collateral in derivatives markets. And the CFTC reiterated that tokenized assets will be evaluated case-by-case, which is a win for the tokenization sector. But none of this helps SPS in the short term. The big money is buying Bitcoin and ETH through regulated channels. Institutional flows remain weak, especially Bitcoin ETFs, particularly BlackRock's IBIT. ETH regained some narrative support as BlackRock advanced its staked ETH ETF plans, but that's not lifting the broader altcoin market. Solana is holding up relatively well at $137, supported by stories like Abu Dhabi positioning itself as a high-performance validation hub. The macro picture is clear: markets are range-bound into year-end, absent a major catalyst. For SPS, that means more sideways grinding or a breakdown if support fails.
Splinterlands-specific news brought some interesting developments.
Winterfest 2025 launched this week, running through the end of the season. A new seasonal modifier called Frostbite was added to the game. Frostbite gives all units Weary, and if a unit doesn't attack during a round, it takes 2 true damage at the end of that round. The bigger news is the SPS rewards restructuring that was hotfixed into the game via a passed proposal. The DAO approved reallocating unused tokens from the LP incentives pool into staking rewards, ranked rewards, tournament rewards, and license rewards. The distribution function was also changed to create a roughly 3-year runway for reward pools, with a more gradual decline than the original endless exponential decay model. Nonetheless, the news dropped, and the price continued doing what it's been doing, compressing inside this descending triangle while support slowly weakens.
So, what happens next?
I don't know. That's the honest answer. Descending triangles typically break to the downside, but they can also reverse if buyers show up with enough conviction to break the upper boundary. Right now, I'm watching two scenarios:
- Bearish scenario: If support at $0.00630 fails, the next logical target is $0.00610, followed by $0.00595 (round-number magnet), and potentially $0.00580 (support from mid-October). There's not much between $0.00630 and $0.00610, so the drop would probably be quick if it happens. Below $0.00600, things get uglier.
- Bullish scenario: If price breaks above $0.00662 and the descending trendline with real volume, that would be the first meaningful bullish signal in weeks and months. A clean break would open the door to $0.00720-$0.00750, where the next resistance cluster sits.
Bottom line
SPS is compressing into a descending triangle with support at $0.00630 and resistance at $0.00660-$0.00662. The downtrend line overhead remains unbroken. The macro environment is volatile, with Bitcoin stuck below $92k. On the splinterlands front, the Winterfest update and SPS rewards restructuring is structurally positive but not moving the token price. I'm watching for either a breakdown below $0.00630 or a breakout above $0.00662 with volume. Until one of those happens, this is just a tightening range trade with downside bias.
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