As a trader and technical analyst in the multi-trillion/day foreign exchange market, I can’t help but find these "digital coins" known as cryptocurrencies to be fascinating. I’m here to strictly post analysis of price action, giving my thoughts as to where some of these cryptos may be going in the near future as an investor, or trader.
As of right now, July 2017, the big three in terms of market cap and attention would be Bitcoin, Ether, and Litecoin. With Bitcoin hitting a high close to $3,000 just last month, the price of both Ether and Litecoin followed to surge right behind with it. It's my intention in this post to go over the current market structure of Ether, what’s it’s been doing and what it (could) be doing (if) it does (this). Whether you’re a trader, investor or simply a spectator, one thing to always remember is to have PATIENCE. My style of trading currencies, commodities and cryptos are waiting for them to make DISTINCT moves in breaking it’s current market structure - and Ether may be at the start of a Bullish run.
As you see price has been forming a falling wedge, there have been multiple lower-highs dating back to Ether’s best at $412 (most-left red circle) on June 12th and had a recent change in momentum around the $200 level (most-left green circle) dating on June 27th; making higher lows.
The cool thing about technical analysis is perspective. If we were to look at a weekly and daily chart, you’d see the dominant strength of Ether being a rather bullish beast, yet as of the past month and a half its started its first downtrend since it’s burst. Now buyers and sellers come into the market trying to make a quick buck by buying and selling at key levels that they believe the price is overbought or oversold.
It’s exciting to see Ether fall in price, because from a technological standpoint the Ethereum blockchain is highly advanced and has the capability* for amazing projects that can impact our economy in tremendous ways. As projects are built on the Ethereum blockchain, it’s token Ether is utilized, therefore inevitably driving up its price. In short, I have a relatively BULLISH sentiment on this crypto currency.
But back to the technicals…
A lot of time in the world of currencies and commodities, whole numbers have a huge psychological presence in the market in terms of key levels. You can go to almost any crypto chart and look at these whole numbers, and you can see quite a bit of support/resistance at or around these zones. I see $300 being one of them. If we can see Ether’s price break above this descending trend line (officially breaking structure) and close ABOVE $300- I see higher-highs. As for traders, a break and close above $300 is a great shift in momentum. And investors, buy the dips at a price you feel is good and hold. With a clean break above $300, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ether not only reach its current high of $412, but surpass it to surge to the $490-$500 range.
The market is uncanny and unpredictable, but she does give us clues as to what she has in store. It’s our job as investors and traders to sit on our hands, use our imagination, establish an “if x, then y” hypothesis, and make moves when we intuitively feel is right.
“Wall Street makes money on activity, You make money in inactivity.” - Warren Buffet