Li Xiaolian, a rather interesting investor in the chain of coins, published a speech titled "The Development of Blockchain and Human Civilization."
Li laughs:
Hello, everyone. As for the blockchain, there are fewer and fewer things I can say about it in public. There is even a tendency for the blockchain to be as public as possible.
The first article on bitcoin that appeared on the Internet in 2011 was written by me. I wrote an article on my blog titled "This is a World Anti-Counterfeiting" See this article on the Internet. At that time I made a lot of public comments about this, and for the past six or seven years I have been telling my friends around me that one of the things I'm most proud of is that I have never advised anyone around me to buy bitcoin over the years .
Recently, more people came to ask me, now I want to buy bitcoin, or do not buy bitcoin to buy anything else, my unified answer is that even you think you want to buy, then you should not buy It's
Investing is not a hit, but I do not understand "luck" as a random event. It has been a long time since humanity understood good luck and unexpected good luck has been called the most difficult English word for translation in the world. In my eyes is to have a good enough methodology, in order to allow you to have more than others unexpected good luck, one of the ways is open.
Even if you all know bitcoin, it may not go on forever. The reason is very simple. Everything is periodic, and so are me. How did I buy the first bitcoin? Because I got the message on Twitter, I heard that he had crossed the $ 1, and the price was actually more than $ 1 around February 1, 2011. All the media was reporting and I started to take action when I bought the hand when the average price is 6 US dollars, 24 US dollars a week later, up 4 times a week you are afraid of it? A little later, the highest point rose to 32 U.S. dollars. A large number of people arbitrage, and then collapsed.
Investment in the traditional world did not cast this thing. When I finished writing the article and sent out a half hour, many people called me. The vice president of IDG, the two of us discussed the issue profoundly and he has not bought it yet. His understanding of the traditional stock market is that it has hit new record highs. What should I do? I should rest. It is useless to think again at this time. Many people will ask what is behind me, my answer is when you hit a record high, you have to be careful.
What kind of person am I? On many occasions, I have said that one tactic I used in the past was that I was a short-term pessimist and a long-term optimist. My opinion of this thing is short-term pessimistic and long-term optimism.
We may now face many hundreds of billions or even trillion bitcoin markets, with the overall market capitalization of $ 1 million at the highest point in 2011, which subsequently collapsed. Today its market capitalization has been more than 150 billion US dollars, the market value of several Sina, it is very alarming. Ethereum we all know?
Ethereum now ranked second in market capitalization, but also very large. An old man asked me, what is the most annoying investment decision you make in this circle? I say Ethereum.
When I cast a U.S. company in 2011, when a young man went to the company in 2013, that guy was the founder of Ethereum today, when the two co-founders of the company I voted to tore apart from each other, A Chinese called Shen Bo, just in that company, was cut off. Later engaged in Ethereum, did not escape my palm, when I have a cloud coin, then exchange partners cat, call me jokingly, you buy a little Ethereum, right? I said do not buy. why? Because in my eyes an overcomplicated system is unsafe, Bitcoin is relatively safe and easy in my eyes to do one thing. That stuff is complicated, and it's about collecting money, not about gathering information. I think this thing is not reliable, not in line with my investment logic. He bought himself, he also has his ability to think independently.
Later, Ethereum rose 3 times, let me buy a little, I said I do not bad that money, do not buy. Later rose to 15 yuan, a little annoyed. I called Qiu Liang, 3000000, buy a little. After the Spring Festival rose to 31 yuan, a little annoyed, I say that you force me to buy. Part of the sale, we share it, long silence inside the phone, then told me that I forgot to buy you. Forget it, buy now, how much? Or 300 million? At that time, the 300 million bought more than 30 Ethereum has 100,000, now a much more money? He dragged on and later bought it. It has been forty or fifty years since he bought it. I think it has been accepted by the public and more thoughts have been put down. The result rose to 80, then bifurcated.
At that time, an unmanned company called DAO was built above the intelligent blockchain. It used to make smart investment deals and invested a lot of bitcoin and Ethereum. As a result, the code went down and it was found by hackers that a lot of money was being transferred Go, there is no way the community can only take a hard fork, we began to panic. You did a does not meet your long-term decision-making, although making money, but still a mistake, more than 80 all sold. Although it is still good, but the more I do not buy.
Sometimes we make such decisions. This is a weakness in our life, but it is undeniable that more such assets will emerge in the future, including the EOS that I participate in. Foreigners this point is really particularly good, abide by the rules, after a period of time told me that opened another company, the last thing that did not open, your shares shift over it, it is now 300 million US dollars, and still rising. The company's return on investment is too high, and in May, it's 30 times in July.
This is the future will generate hundreds of billions or even trillions of blockchain market, there is a chance here, the opportunity where I do not currently know.
We went through a few things and I went in 2011. When I went in, it was a geek toy. By 2013 the blockchain industry had become an industry, and at the same time it became an adventurer's paradise. A large number of people carrying tens of millions into it. Some of the companies in this process have been very successful. For example, one company called Bit Continent did 200 million renminbi in 2013 and later proved to be a successful adventurer. Although there are many voices scolded by the market .
You are triggered in the market emotions are as a rational investor shame, the other well done to curse him, so bad. By 2017 this has become a big player in the world, although you can buy all kinds of strange coins with a few dollars, but see a lot of big players come in, but also a lot of past players are not suitable for play.
A listed company engaged in a play currency, Baidu is also doing this stuff, a variety of players appeared, Tencent, Ali are doing such a thing. Become a formal industry, no longer be understood as a speculative thing in the past. What is the future? do not know.
At the beginning, I was relatively confident in the logic of doing this. We have seen with the eyes how the Internet has changed the world so that the cost of transmitting information is close to zero. This is the core essence of the Internet. Such an abstract logic has changed the world. We can not see this matter initially. We can not judge the established fact as our analytical ability and push ourselves back to 1997, 2007, and 2010. Do you think the world today is This change, you can think of it? When I was a student in the 1980s, our classmates learned that when someone learned a computer, was not everything in your house automatically after that? We are not automatically today.
How blockchain will change the world? The reason blockchain has changed the world is that asset transfer cost is close to zero or greatly reduced. Blockchain is likely to be the next generation of Internet. It transmits not only information, but also information transmitted by the Internet. The blockchain is A decentralized network, at the same time it also transmits assets, these two things at the same time low-cost transmission, this is a very alarming thing.
You ask me again what will happen to it? I do not know. This is a very fair proposal for all who want to participate in the industry. This is not a new technology. When the bull market is saving money, the bear market will hit a record high and you will not be able to save money It's
People have always had a huge misunderstanding of me. Everyone thought I was an adventurer. Wrong. I can do something very relevant to one thing today. I am very risk-taking. If you are in a very fast-growing industry, Stay there, a few days you can not help it, your intelligence is nothing, your hard work nothing. I will desperately seek division, I have seen many investors I admire, to the conclusion that they are all hedging experts. If you want to participate in this industry, there is too much risk in this, if you put it as equity investment to vote, you cast out 10 into 2 is quite good, in which cast 100 into 2 very good It's
For the average person to invest more to remind, the risk is high, your affordability may be broken by it. Many people will make such a decision, this thing seems worth buying, mining, mining is not cheaper to buy? There are many people now investing in mining machines and many of the big companies in the world are working on new nanomachines, including my own company in Silicon Valley. Mine risk, you are an expert, experts can hedge, not an expert do not do this thing, where power is lost, the machine is not broken, people do not watch. If you really want to buy, buy the most cost-effective in the market. Or buy cloud computing power directly, do not have to buy a machine, if you can not bear that money, you are not suitable for investment. Money in the financial markets is the best bet to buy. We're traveling around like Columbus, but we're not adventurers, we do not want to take risks, I'm a hedge specialist.
If you want to focus on this area, where is the most profitable place? Distribution, trading, infrastructure. South Korean sought after, sought after by the Japanese, the price went up. This is indeed the most profitable place. You can focus on those companies that are doing SO abroad. One friend told him in 2010 that he had studied all the blockchain startup companies in Europe and the Mainland in the past two years. He concluded that 99.9% of them are rubbish and he would not touch it. However, such decisions are often the wrong decision made by the investment community, predicting the future with historical data as a final conclusion. This is not reliable, so he trusted, you left. The exchange is not, in theory, a blockchain project, but it happens to be the most profitable thing in a blockchain project.
It's the equivalent of any door between the real world and the blockchain world, which is definitely profitable. In addition to infrastructure, the so-called mining. The vast majority of people are not professionals, you do not understand the chip, network maintenance, do not understand this one has the greatest risk behind the original society there is no supply chain finance, which manufacturing industry in real life you do not have supply chain finance? Each link has supply chain finance as a lubricant. Primitive society, all the money you have a take, the bull market to buy buy, bear pull came everybody shut down. In the foreseeable future, there will be a large number of professional companies, professionals and industry experts will rush in to do this thing.
This is the status quo I share with you. In conclusion, I very much agree with what Yang just said. In the end, we were looking for assets. The track was often not selected. It was there. Either you understood or you did not understand what I felt most in recent years, Among the crowd, there are few people who can lead the war, and it is rare for them to fight.
Some people can go up to a countertops, two countertops, to here will not work. I have not made much progress in these years, and the blockchain industry has grown too fast. In the future world you will see a large number of people you think are fools growing up in this industry. Today, I tell you about my feelings. I used to save as much as one million U.S. dollars. If there is no block chain, I can not talk about investment in my life. You do not grow up to hate suicide, in this industry there will be a large number of such people, the track is in, it will extract these people. It was a dumb, and in the end they became experts. It is my greatest feeling to be good friends with people who really can get on the table.