After a 2017 where spectacular returns are achieved, the first quarter of 2018 brings this cryptocurrency back to reality
The first bitcoin block was mined in January 2009, and a few days later, its knowledge became public. Under the idea of creating a form of value transmission in a digital, instantaneous, safe and decentralized way, a real revolution begins whose impact will affect each and every one of the sectors of our society. However, it is not until 2016 when technology and cryptoactives go from being something reserved for a few visionaries and technological developers to become a public issue. In 2017 there is a 'boom', both in the number of ICO (raising funds for new technological developments) and in the interest and impact on the price of cryptoactives, seducing more investors and speculators, which cause one of the largest movements of prices of the whole story.
Attracted by noise and greed, we witness the arrival of opportunists without any knowledge in search of free money. After a 2017 where spectacular returns are achieved, the first quarter of 2018 returns a large part of these speculators to reality, and the 70% drops in three months show the true meaning of the word 'risk'.
When the bitcoin falls, the reflections on the bubble experienced by the cryptoactives and the need for regulation arise again
Just at that moment, the reflections on the bubble experienced by cryptoactives and the need for regulation or even prohibition arise again. After the fall of 19,000 to 6,000 USD in the case of bitcoin (BTC), trapped speculators (who are not few) wonder if we have already seen the end of the fall and if those $ 19,000 will be recovered again
I was surprised the other day by a tweet where, in true Wall Street style, the price predictions of several characters, always positive, were placed on the price of the BTC. These contrast with comments from another part of the financial community such as Roubini, which foresees a zero value of the BTC, or Steve Strongin, Goldman, who commented that the vast majority (but not all) of the cryptoactive can be zero.
Leaving aside the predictions, I do believe that what really matters is knowing at what moment of the market we are, from that point of view, to be able to make the opportune decisions. In this regard, I think it is interesting to establish a reasoning on which to base the degree of probability that any position taken in cryptoactive can report.
This argument is based on the possibilities of cryptoeconomics beyond the success or failure of bitcoin. That is to say, the future may not focus on that cryptocurrency, but on the layer of value that has been created thanks to it and that will delimit the future of the economy.