Tsunami Action Plan By Sam Norris 

A Tsunami is highly unlikely to hit the Port (Stephens), but the NSW State Emergency Service isn’t about to take the risk. A team of five within the Tomaree unit is well advanced with plans to respond to a 10-metre-plus inundation in the event of a big enough trigger in the Pacific Ocean. In a large quake the odds of a tsunami are one-in-1000 and in that event unit commander Maureen Phillpott said residents would need to find higher ground quickly.  

“In the highly unlikely event of a tsunami, of the scale we’re preparing for, there would be deaths,” she said. “By having a good response system, we can minimise the impact of such a tsunami through preparing people to take higher ground. If it originates from Chile we will have six hours but if it comes from New Zealand it could be here within two hours.”  

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To prepare both the Tomaree and Tilligerry peninsulas the team has taken photographs at key impact sites, recorded building heights, and assessed the terrain, to produce a map of those areas likely to be hit. This information will form part of a brochure to guide people on their evacuation plans. But using cars might not be the best option.  

“With our mapping it would cross Nelson Bay Road so it’s no good taking it to evacuate,” Mrs Phillpott said. “While some areas on the peninsulas are only one metre above sea level we are also fortunate that there is higher ground where people can evacuate to, Nelson Bay included.”  Not just any shake will trigger a tsunami. Advice provided by the SES suggests it would take a ‘subduction’ event - where opposing tectonic plates simultaneously rise and fall. 

“It would take a major seismic event,” Mrs Phillpott said. The plan would trigger a call to units elsewhere in the Hunter to help with the emergency response. While enroute Mrs Phillpott said her unit would shelter. “People will be directed to listen to their emergency broadcaster,” she said. “We’re 35 volunteers and many of us have family so there’s that to think about. “We’ll relocate what we need to higher ground and our work will really begin once the impact has passed.”  

The brochure will be distributed early October in community information sessions at Salamander Bay Shopping Centre and possibly Nelson Bay. “It doesn’t outline where to evacuate to, but it does map those areas worst-affected,” Mrs Phillpott said. “This would allow people to evacuate themselves to higher ground.” 

The area-specific brochures have been tailored to residents in Fingal and Shoal Bay; Nelson Bay-Corlette; Salamander Bay, Soldiers Point; Anna Bay to Bobs Farm; and the Tilligerry. The brochures and plan will soon be submitted for regional and state approval. 

“When the plan is finalised, it will also be published on the Port Stephens Council website,” Mrs Phillpott said. Geoscience Australia, the country’s pre-eminent public-sector geoscience organisation, confirmed that a tsunami is possible. Under it’s calculations earthquakes originating at the South America trench would have arrival times ranging from 12.5 hours (from the far south) up to about 19 hours (from the far north). This time difference is put down to the trench being quite long. From Kermadec-Tonga, North of New Zealand, it estimates arrival times of 3.5 hours (in the south) to 5.5 hours (in the north). In the event of a large tsunami the east coast could expect waves for a day or so following the arrival, and some later waves potentially larger than the initial ones.